I fucking CRUSHED last night’s only game between the Yotes and Sens, going 5-0 to win 6.1 units. Huge night. Tonight we have a big eleven game NHL slate to build on it.
Maple Leafs vs. Stars (7:00)
Sunday in a fucking awesome outdoor game in Hamilton, the Leafs lost 5-2 to my Buffalo Sabres for their second straight loss after a 5-4 overtime loss at home against the Coyotes on Tuesday. Toronto’s 37-17-5 on the season but they’ve sucked lately with a losing 5-5-2 record in their last twelve games. The reason for that is their goaltending and defense has sucked with statistically the worst goaltending in the NHL since January 1st. In the stretch of their last twelve games alone, the Leafs have given up an average of 4.59 goals per game. Not good. On the season, they’re allowing an average of 3.05. Tonight they are starting rookie Erik Kallgren for his first NHL start.
They’ve been a great team offensively all season, averaging 3.68 goals per game, third most in the NHL. They’ll be missing their best player in Auston Matthews (arguably the best Leaf ever) who’s now suspended for two games for his dirty crosscheck (scumbag) on Rasmus Dahlin on Sunday. The Dallas Stars are coming off back to back losses to the Rangers (7-4) and in Nashville (2-1) but they have a 32-22-3 record and have been playing good hockey lately with a 14-6-1 record in their last 21 games. They’ve both scoring and allowing an average of 2.93 goals per game. I’m back on the over 6 on this game for two units along with a unit on the Stars ML, a half a unit on the Stars in regulation and .2 units on the Stars -1.5 alternate puck line.
Canadiens vs. Coyotes (7:00)
These are two of the worst teams in the NHL but they’re both playing pretty well lately with their best hockey of the season. Last night the Yotes got me a hell of winning night in their 5-3 win in Ottawa. I fucking crushed it to go 5-0 and win 6.1 units. They’re 19-36-4 on the season but have five wins in their last six games. Arizona’s scored a fourth fewest in the NHL average of 2.58 goals per game on the season but in their last five games goals have come easy for them, averaging a very high 5.8 goals per game in that span. On the season, they’ve allowed a fifth most in the NHL average of 3.54 goals per game. The Habs are an even worse team in the standings than the Yotes, dead last in the NHL with a 16-35-8 record but they’ve also played better recently with an 8-2-1 record in their last eleven games, coming off a 4-3 win in overtime in Philly on Sunday. They’re the worst team in the NHL statistically this season on both ends of the ice, scoring an average of just 2.46 goals per game and allowing an average of 3.78 goals per game. They’ve also been playing well offensively lately, scoring at least three goals in eleven of their last twelve games (and they won the game they didn’t). In the first meeting between these teams this season on January 17th in the dirty desert, the Yotes won 5-2. I’d slightly lean they win again here on the road but on the second half of a back to back and with the Canadiens playing not as terrible lately, I don’t think its worth betting on at the +143 price. I do like the over though as both of these shitty teams have been playing good offensively lately and pushing their games over, with the over hitting in five of the last seven games for the Coyotes and all of the Habs last six games. I’ll take the over in this game for a unit and the alternate over 7.5 for half a unit.
Rangers vs. Ducks (7:00)
The Rangers are having a great season with a 37-17-5 record, coming off a big 7-4 win in Dallas on Saturday to end their four game road trip off hot. They’re 19-5-3 at home in MSG this season with a 9-4-1 record in their last 14 games. Igor Shesterkin’s easily the best goalie in the NHL with a 2.07 GAA and .938 save percentage, which is the main reason the Rangers have allowed a third fewest in the NHL average of 2.58 goals per game. They haven’t been as great this season offensively though, averaging 2.98 goals per game. The Ducks are struggling lately, coming into tonight’s game on a four game losing streak with a 27-25-10 record and they only have a 4-9-2 record in their last 15 games. They’ve scored an average of just 2.84 goals per game and allowed an average of 3.1 goals per game. In their first game between these teams this season, the Rangers beat the Ducks 4-1 in Anaheim on January 8th. I’d pretty much expect the same results here. I’ll go with a unit on the Rangers in regulation.
UPDATE: Georgiev’s starting in goal tonight instead of Igor for the Rangers, so if I hadn’t already bet on it, I’d probably lay off on them. Too late for me though.
Capitals vs. Islanders (7:00)
The disappointing Isles who haven’t even come close to their preseason Cup Finals expectations with their 24-24-8 record have actually played good hockey lately, coming into today’s game on a three game win streak with four wins in their last five games. They’ve been solid all season defensively, allowing a sixth fewest in the NHL average of 2.71 goals per game but they’ve sucked offensively, averaging 2.7 goals per game, ninth fewest in the NHL. They’ve been able to score lately though, averaging 4.75 goals per game in their last four games. The Caps have been pretty inconsistent this season, coming into tonight’s game with a 32-18-10 record but they’ve played pretty well recently too with a 4-0-1 record in their last five games. Washington’s been good on both ends of the ice this season, scoring a ninth most in the NHL average of 3.25 goals per game and allowing an average of 2.78 goals per game, ninth fewest in the NHL. The first time these teams played this season on January 15th, the Caps blanked the Isles 2-0 on Long Island in a very close game with Ovi scoring the insurance goal with just 11 second left on the empty net. I think the Caps win this game at home tonight since they’re easily the more well rounded, and I’ll take the Caps ML for half a unit. I’d also lean the under, but both of these teams have trended over with each of their last four games going over, so I’ll stay off that.
Predators vs. Penguins (8:00)
This should be a fun game tonight in Smashville. The Predators have a 34-21-4 record and are coming off a big 6-2 in in Minnesota (ovaaaaa) on Sunday night for their fourth win in their last five games. All Star goalie Juuse Saros got the night off Sunday so he’s confirmed back in goal tonight against the Pens. Saros has been great this season with a 2.44 GAA and .923 save percentage. The Preds have allowed an average of 2.78 goals per game, ninth fewest in the NHL and they’ve scored an average of 3.19 goals per game. The Pens are having a great season at 36-15-9, coming into tonight off back to back wins against Carolina (4-2) on Sunday afternoon and Vegas (5-2) on Friday night and they have a 5-1-1 record in their last seven games. They’re ninth in the NHL in scoring, averaging 3.25 goals per game and allowing a third fewest in the NHL average of 2.58 goals per game. A lot of the credit for that great defensive play goes to goaltender Tristan Jarry, who gets the night off tonight with Casey DeSmith confirmed in net. DeSmith hasn’t been good with a 2.98 GAA and .905 save percentage. If Jarry was starting this game I’d probably bet the Pens here but with DeSmith starting, I’d rather just skip this game. I also slightly lean the over but not enough to bet on it.
Jets vs. Golden Knights (8:00)
The Golden Knights who are 32-25-4 on the season, have looked pathetic since Mark Stone went on long term IR, coming into tonight’s game on a four game losing streak with a horrible 4-9-1 record in their last 14 games. On the season, they’re averaging a decent 3.08 goals per game, but they’ve struggled to score lately, averaging just around 2 goals per game in that last 14 game stretch. Defensively, they’ve allowed an average of 2.98 goals per game. Winnipeg’s been very inconsistent this year with a 27-23-10 record. They’re coming off a 4-3 win in St. Louis on Sunday for their third win in their last four games and they’ve been decent lately with a 5-2-1 record in their last eight games. On the season, they’ve averaged 2.97 goals per game and have allowed an average of 3.02 goals per game. Neither of which are better than league average. The first time these teams played this season, the Jets won 5-4 in overtime at the Fortress on January 2nd. I’d slightly lean Winnipeg at home here but Vegas is the way better team and just in a big offensive slump, so I’m not betting a side on this one. I’d also lean the under but not enough to bet on it. I’ll just skip this game completely.
Blackhawks vs. Bruins (8:30)
This is a pretty big mismatch to me and I’m surprised on the price for the Bruins in this game on the road. The B’s are 36-18-5 this season and have been playing great as of late, with a 9-1-1 record in their last eleven games. On the season, they’ve scored an average of 3.02 goals per game and they’ve been spectacular defensively, allowing the fifth fewest goals in hockey, an average of 2.68 goals per game. The Blackhawks on the other hand blow. They’re 22-30-8 and have just four wins in their last eleven games, all coming against pretty weak competition. On the season, they’ve been pretty bad all year on both ends of the ice, scoring a sixth fewest in the NHL average of 2.63 goals per game and allowing an eighth most in the NHL average of 3.43 goals per game. The Hawks actually kept it close when these teams played last Thursday with the Bruins winning 4-3 on David Pastrnak’s game winning goal with just 18 seconds left in regulation. I’d think the Bruins get the win easier tonight on the road. I’ll take the B’s here for 1.5 units.
Oilers vs. Red Wings (9:00)
The Red Wings are playing a terrible stretch of hockey coming into tonight’s game on a five game losing streak with just one win in their last eight games to drop to 24-28-7. They’re scoring a tenth fewest in the NHL average of 2.83 goals per game and they have been even worse defensively, allowing the second most goals in hockey, an average of 3.71 goals per game. The Oilers are the most inconsistent team in the NHL, coming into tonight’s game at home with back to back wins against Tampa and the Caps to get off a three game losing streak and they’re 32-23-4 on the season. Edmonton’s defense and goaltending sucks, as they’re allowing an average of 3.17 goals per game, twelfth most in the NHL. Their offense is entirely dependent on Connor McDavid (83 points, 51 assists) and Leon Draisaitl (81 points, 39 goals) and as a team the Oilers are averaging 3.22 goals per game, twelfth most in the NHL. The first time these teams played this season, the Red Wings won 4-2 at home on November 9th. I’d expect the Oilers to answer back from that game with a win at home tonight, but even against shitty teams, I don’t really trust the Oilers ever, let alone enough to lay -265 on them. I don’t even really like the Oilers in regulation here but I will take the Oilers TT over 3.5 for a unit. I’d lean the game over too, but would rather just stick with the team total.
Canucks vs. Devils (10:00)
The Canucks have been a really good team lately, but come into tonight’s game off back to back losses to the Lightning and Capitals. They’re 29-24-7 on the season with an 8-3-1 record in their last twelve games. On the season, they’ve only scored a tenth fewest in the NHL average of 2.83 goals per game but in their last 14 games they’ve been scoring much more, averaging 4.14 goals per game in that span. Vancouver’s been pretty solid defensively all year, allowing an average of 2.85 goals per game. The Devils have sucked this year with a 22-32-5 record but coming off their 2-1 win against the Ducks on Saturday, they have three wins in their last four games (but only seven in their last 20). They’ve scored an average of 3 goals per game on the season, but that has been better lately as they’ve averaged around 4 goals per game in their last 13 games. They’ve been awful defensively though, allowing a seventh most in the NHL average of 3.46 goals per game. That’s been a bit later very recently as they’ve allowed an average of only 2 goals per game in their last four games. Two weeks ago on February 28th, the Devils blew out the Canucks 7-2. I wouldn’t expect that to happen again tonight and would lean Vancouver wins this game at home. I’d lean the over again but not enough to bet on it. I’ll skip betting this game completely. Has the potential to be either a great game or a blowout.
Kings vs. Avalanche (10:30)
The Avs got a great 3-0 shutout win at home on Sunday night against a great Flames team. Colorado’s been awesome all season, one of the best teams in the NHL with a 42-13-5 record. They have struggled a bit lately though with a 2-3-1 record in their last six games. The Avalanche have the second highest scoring offense in the NHL, averaging 3.83 goals per game and they’ve allowed an eleventh fewest in the NHL average of 2.82 goals per game. LA’s coming off a 3-2 win against the Florida Panthers on Sunday night (double loser for me on Florida and the over), bouncing back from back to back losses to the shitty Sharks for their ninth win in their last 13 games. They have been playing pretty solid hockey lately with a 13-4-3 record in their last 20 games to improve to 33-20-8 on the season. The Kings have been great defensively, allowing a seventh fewest in the NHL average of 2.75 goals per game but on the season they’ve haven’t been as great offensively, averaging 2.84 goals per game, twelfth fewest in the NHL. In their first game they played against each other this season, the Avs won 4-1 in LA on January 20th. I’d think the Kings keep it a bit closer but still won’t be able to beat the Avalanche tonight. I don’t think the ML is worth betting, but I’ll take the Avs in regulation for a unit. I’d lean the over in this game but not enough value to bet on it at 6.5 or even 6.
Sharks vs. Panthers (10:30)
The Sharks fucking suck lately, dropping to 26-25-7 on the season with only six wins in their last 21 games, but they are coming off back to back wins against the LA Kings in a home and home on Saturday and Thursday. They’ve been terrible offensively, scoring a fifth fewest in the NHL average of 2.62 goals per game and have only been slightly better defensively, allowing an average of 3.1 goals per game. Florida’s five game win streak came to an end on Sunday, losing 3-2 to LA in a shootout, but they’re one of the best teams in the NHL with a 40-13-6 record. They have the best offense in the NHL, scoring an average of 4.12 goals per game and they’re allowing an average of 2.86 goals per game. These teams played in Florida on January 29th and it took until overtime for the Panthers to win 5-4. I think this should be a much easier win for them on the road tonight. I don’t think its worth betting the expensive -265 moneyline but I love the team total for the Panthers at 3.5, which I’ll take for 2 units tonight. I’d lean the over as well but don’t want to have to rely on the Sharks to score on Bobrovsky, so I’ll just stick with the TT.
2u Leafs/Stars over 6 (-141)
1u Stars ML (+120)
.5u Stars in regulation (+188)
.2u Stars -1.5 (+295)
1u Coyotes/Canadiens over 6 (-120)
.5u Coyotes/Canadiens over 7.5 (+255)
1u Rangers in regulation (-132)
.5u Capitals ML (-152)
1.5u Bruins ML (-175)
1u Oilers TT over 3.5 (-162)
1u Avs in regulation (-132)
2u Florida TT over 3.5 (-167)
Record: 561-409-21 (+19.82 units)
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