Glad I came back to betting for last night’s slate, going 0-2 and losing 3.2 units. Just great. Onto tonight’s slate with ten games going up against the Sweet Sixteen…nice scheduling NHL.
Bruins vs. Lightning (7:00)
This has the potential to be an awesome game out of the Atlantic between two pretty much guaranteed playoff teams in the East. The Bruins are playing great recently with a 12-2-1 record in their last 15 games to improve to 39-19-5 on the season. They are one of the top teams in the NHL defensively, allowing a sixth fewest in the NHL average of 2.65 goals per game. Offensively, they’ve averaged 3 goals per game. They grind out and win low scoring games. The Bolts have struggled a bit lately with just two wins in their last seven games but they’re having another solid season at 39-17-6 with a team that could contend to three peat and win the Stanley Cup. The Lightning are very good on both ends of the ice, averaging 3.31 goals per game, eighth most in the NHL and are allowing a tenth fewest in the NHL average of 2.79 goals per game. These teams split their first two games this season with the road teams winning each of them with a 3-2 Lightning win in overtime in Boston on December 4th and a 5-2 Bruins win in Tampa on January 8th. I’d slightly lean the Bruins at home and the under in this matchup, but I don’t see enough of an edge in either side to bet on it. I’ll skip betting this game entirely.
Canadiens vs. Panthers (7:00)
The Florida Panthers are one of the best teams in the NHL with a 42-14-6 record, going 7-1-1 in their last nine games. They’ve scored the most goals in the NHL, an average of 4.06 goals per gam and they just bolstered their offense even farther by acquiring Claude Giroux from the Flyers at the trade deadline. They’ve allowed an average of 2.84 goals per game, 13th fewest in the NHL. Florida will be without their top defenseman Aaron Ekblad who will be out week to week now with a lower body injury that will be a big blow on the back end for the Panthers. He contributes on both ends of the ice so they’ll quickly see the drop off without him in the lineup. The Habs are the worst team in the NHL standings at 17-36-10 but they’ve been a pesky team since hiring Martin St. Louis and have a 9-3-3 record in their last 15 games. They’re coming off a 3-2 loss in overtime to the Bruins on Monday night. Montreal has the worst defense and goaltending in the NHL, allowing an average of 3.76 goals per game. On the season, they’ve scored the fewest goals in hockey, an average of 2.51 goals per game. In their last 15 games though, they’ve scored at least 3 goals in all but two of those games. On the New Year’s Day game between these teams who sit at opposite ends of the Atlantic Division, the Panthers scored four unanswered goals to win 5-2. They should win again tonight pretty easily on the road. I don’t think the moneyline is worth betting on this game at -286 and I like the Florida TT over 3.5 better than regulation line. Even though the Panthers haven’t scored four goals in any of their last four games, I like them to break that streak tonight against the Habs and will go back to the well on it for a unit. I’d also lean the over, expecting Montreal to get 2-3 pucks past Spencer Knight.
Hurricanes vs. Stars (7:00)
Carolina got off their four game losing streak with a 3-2 win against the Lightning on Tuesday night (which would’ve hit my lean on the under in that game). They’ve been a great team this season at 42-15-6. The Canes have given up the fewest goals in hockey, an average of just 2.37 goals per game and Freddy Andersen’s been great in goal with a 2.06 GAA and .928 save percentage. They’ve been good offensively as well, scoring an eleventh most in the NHL average of 3.25 goals per game. The Stars have had a decent season at 35-24-3, coming off back to back wins against the Oilers and Capitals with three wins in their last four games. They’ve been significantly worse on the road than they’ve been at home though, holding an away record of 14-16-2. They’re averaging 2.92 goals per game and allowing an average of 2.95 goals per game. Dallas will be starting Scott Wedgewood, who they just acquired a few days ago from the Coyotes to backup Jake Oettinger with Holtby out injured. Wedgewood hasn’t been great this year with a 3.16 GAA and .909 save percentage but that is a bit skewed considering that he had the Yotes defense in front of him. In Dallas on November 30th, the Stars won 4-1 against the Hurricanes. I like the Canes to win at home tonight. I’ll take Carolina in regulation here for a unit to save some juice on the ML. I’d lean the under but not enough to bet on it with Wedgewood in net.
Islanders vs. Red Wings (7:30)
The Isles bounced back from their 2-1 loss to the Flyers on Sunday by shutting out the Senators 3-0 on Tuesday night. They’ve played really good hockey lately with a 7-2-1 record in their last ten games but its too little too late with them for them as they have a lousy 27-25-9 record on the season. The Islanders are a great defensive team, allowing an average of just 2.62 goals per game, fifth fewest in the NHL. Ilya Sorokin’s a great goaltender with a 2.29 GAA and a .927 save percentage. Offensively they’ve sucked though, averaging only 2.69 goals per game, ninth fewest in the league. Detroit’s coming off a 6-3 win against the Flyers on Tuesday, but they’ve sucked. They’re 26-30-7 on the season with only three wins in their last twelve games and they’ve been bad on the road where they’re 9-18-3. They’ve been bad on both ends of the ice, averaging 2.87 goals per game and allowing the second most goals in hockey, an average of 3.7 goals per game. The Red Wings are 2-0 this season against the Isles in both games played in Detroit with a 4-3 overtime win on December 4th and a 2-1 win December 14th. I’d expect the script to be flipped on this one. I don’t like laying the juice on the Isles, so I’ll take them in regulation for a unit. I’d lean the under.
Blues vs. Flyers (8:00)
The Flyers are a terrible team with a 20-32-11 record. They’ve won two of their last four games but have just seven wins in their last 33 games. This team sucks on both ends of the ice, scoring an average of 2.52 goals per game, the second fewest in the NHL and allowing an eighth most in the NHL average of 3.43 goals per game. Martin Jones is starting for them tonight, who’s been pretty terrible with a 3.36 GAA and .902 save percentage. The Blues ended their three game losing streak with a 5-2 win in Washington on Tuesday night. They’re a pretty good team at 35-18-9 but have shown to be inconsistent at times. St. Louis has been very good on both ends of the ice, scoring the fifth most goals in hockey, an average of 3.55 goals per game and allowing an eighth fewest in the NHL average of 2.77 goals per game. Jordan Binnington has taken more of a backup role behind Husso this year and hasn’t been great with a 3.11 GAA and .903 save percentage. The first time these teams played this season, the Blues won 4-1 on February 22nd in Philly. They should crush the Flyers again tonight but this game’s too expensive for me to trust them at -265 on the ML and I don’t think even buying it to the puck line or regulation line is worth betting. I’d expect both teams to score in this game and will take the over for half a unit.
Wild vs. Canucks (8:00)
Last night the Canucks got a big 3-1 win in Colorado (loser for me) in a game that had no score through 40 minutes to end their three game losing streak. They’ve been struggling a bit lately as that was just their second win in their last seven games. Vancouver’s struggled to score all season, averaging just 2.82 goals per game, eleventh fewest in the NHL. They have been good defensively though, allowing a twelfth fewest in the NHL average of 2.83 goals per game. Jaro Halak started last night for them and had a solid performance in goal but they’ll have the significantly better Thatcher Demko’s back in goal tonight. The Wild after going on a bad run for a while are coming into tonight on a three game win streak to improve to 37-20-4 on the season. They have one of the best offenses in the NHL, scoring a third most average of 3.66 goals per game. They have had their struggles defensively though, allowing an average of 3.15 goals per game on the season, but have been better on the back end their last few days and (although Talbot is starting tonight) addressed some of their goaltending issues by bringing in Fleury. When these teams played back on October 26th in Vancouver, the Wild won 3-2. I’d expect another win here from them tonight with the Canucks on the second half of a road back to back. I’ll take them in regulation for half a unit, since I think the -200 ML is too expensive.
Jets vs. Senators (8:00)
The Ottawa Senators have been one of the worst teams in hockey lately with only one win in their last six games and a 22-36-5 record. They’ve been a horrible team on both ends of the ice. They’re averaging just the third fewest goals in hockey, an average of only 2.56 goals per game and have allowed an average of 3.27 goals per game, tenth most in the NHL. The Jets have played pretty well lately, coming off a 4-0 shutout win against the Golden Knights on Tuesday for their sixth win in their last eight games. They’ve been inconsistent at times this season but come into tonight with a 30-24-10 record. They’re averaging 3.08 goals per game and allowing an average of 3 goals per game. This should be an easy win for Winnipeg at home tonight and I’ll take them in regulation for a unit. I’d lean the under, as I don’t expect the Sens to be able to score on Hellebuyck, but not enough to bet on it.
Oilers vs. Sharks (9:00)
The Oilers come into tonight’s game after losing back to back on the road in Dallas (5-3) on Tuesday and Colorado (3-2 in OT) on Monday. They have played well lately though and were on a five game win streak before that. They’re 35-24-5 on the season. Edmonton’s offense is averaging 3.34 goals per game, seventh most in the NHL…which is huge considering that their offense runs entirely through two players, McDavid (93 points, 58 assists) and Draisaitl (88 points, 46 assists), which just shows how incredible those two are. Defensively they’ve sucked though, allowing an eleventh most in the NHL average of 3.19 goals per game. The 28-27-8 Sharks have sucked in the last few months with only six wins in their last 20 games but two of those came in their last two games, pulling off a shocking 4-3 win in Calgary on Tuesday and beating the Yotes 4-2 on Sunday. On the season they’ve scored just the sixth fewest goals in hockey, an average of 2.62 goals per game while they’ve allowed an average of 3.11 gaol per game. Kaapo Kahkonen will make his first start tonight for the Sharks after getting traded at the deadline from the Wild. He hasn’t been great for Minnesota this season, but considering the goaltending that the Sharks have gotten, he might somehow be an upgrade for them. In the first game between these Pacific Division teams on February 14th in San Jose, the Oilers won in a 3-0 shutout on the road. The Oilers should win this game at home tonight, but I don’t think its worth betting on at even close to the price it is, so I’ll just skip it. I don’t have any sort of lean on the over, under for this one, pretty much a coin flip to me on that.
Golden Knights vs. Predators (10:00)
Vegas big time fucked themselves on Monday’s trade deadline with their trade for Evengii Dadanov by issues on their end, on Ottawa’s end when they got him and the NHL league office regarding his no trade clause. The whole reason of that move was to clear cap space but they’re now pretty much screwed on being able to activate Mark Stone and Alec Martinez before the playoffs…which might be tough for the Knights to even get into now. This team’s struggling big time lately with only two wins in their last nine games to drop to 34-28-4 and are now sitting on the outside looking in on a playoff spot. They’ve gotten shut out back to back, losing 4-0 in Winnipeg on Tuesday and 3-0 in Minnesota on Monday. On the season, they’re averaging 3.05 goals per game and allowing an average of 3.03 goals per game. With Lehner and Brossoit both out injured, Michael Thompson will get the start tonight for the Golden Knights. The Preds are coming off a 6-1 blowout loss in LA on Tuesday (with Rittich starting in goal, so kind of expected) but they’ve played really good lately with seven wins in their last ten games and they’re 37-23-4 on the season. Juuse Saros is one of the best goalies in the NHL with a 2.48 GAA and .922 save percentage and is back in goal for the Preds tonight. With his play, Nashville’s allowed an average of 2.84 goals per game. They’ve been quite good offensively too, averaging 3.27 goals per game, ninth most in the NHL. These teams split their two previous games this year, with the road teams winning each; a 5-2 Golden Knights win in Smashville on November 24th and a 3-2 Preds win on January 4th in the Fortress. The line on this game doesn’t make sense to me, I know the Preds are on the road but with how Vegas has played lately and how depleted their lineup is, I can’t understand why this game is a pick em at -110. I’ll go with a unit on Nashville on value alone. They’re the way better team here.
Kings vs. Blackhawks (10:00)
The Blackhawks are a horrible team. They’re 23-32-9 on the season and one of the worst teams in the NHL on both ends of the ice. They’re coming off a 4-2 win in Anaheim last night (glad I stayed off betting that game) that ended their three game losing streak. They have a pathetic offense, averaging just 2.63 goals per game, seventh fewest in the NHL and they’ve allowed the ninth most goals in hockey, an average of 3.42 goals per game. Their goaltending has gotten significantly worse since Monday though when they traded Marc Andre Fleury (a good trade for both sides). Tonight they’re starting Collin Delia, who has one of the worst stat lines for goaltenders in the NHL with a 6.44 GAA and a .750 save percentage. LA’s playing pretty good, coming off a huge 6-1 win against the Preds on Tuesday. They’re 35-22-8 and have a 13-6-1 record in their last 20 games. The Kings have a great defense, allowing the seventh fewest goals in hockey, an average of 2.72 goals per game. They have struggled a bit offensively though, scoring an eleventh fewest in the NHL average of 2.82 goals per game. They should be able to score without much issue tonight though against Delia and I’d expect them to get a win at home. I think the ML is too expensive at -210 on the Kings but will take them in regulation for a unit.
1u Florida TT over 3.5 (-165)
1u Carolina in regulation (-135)
1u Islanders in regulation (-136)
.5u Blues/Flyers over 6 (-118)
.5u Wild in regulation (-125)
1u Jets in regulation (-137)
1u Nashville ML (-110)
1u Kings in regulation (-125)
Record: 592-445-21 (-4.16 units)
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