Pretty much broke even last night going 5-4 for -0.37 units. We enter the final month of what should be an exciting finish to the NHL regular season with a big nine game slate tonight. I’m going pretty hard on tonight’s slate!
Bruins vs. Devils (7:00)
The Bruins four game win streak came to an end on Tuesday night as they lost 6-4 to the Leafs in a high scoring game. Boston’s played great hockey lately with a 14-3-1 record in their last 18 games to improve to 41-20-5 on the season. They’re still sitting in the Wild Card spot in the East, two points out from Toronto for third place in the Atlantic Division. They’re averaging 3.06 goals per game and have been very good defensively, allowing an average of just 2.7 goals per game, sixth fewest in the NHL. The Devils are coming off a 3-2 win against the Habs on Sunday, just their third win in their last nine games. They’ve had a pretty terrible season at 24-37-5. New Jersey has scored an average of 3.03 goals per game but they’ve been one of the worst teams in the NHL defensively, allowing a fourth most in the NHL average of 3.56 goals per game. The B’s won both previous matchups between these teams this season with a 5-2 win in Jersey on November 13th and a 5-3 win at home on January 4th. I think this game sets up perfectly for them to get a win at home to bounce back off their loss to Toronto. I’ll go with 1.5 units on the Bruins in regulation and half a unit on the Bruins TT over 3.5. I’d also lean the over but not enough to bet on it at 6.5.
Maple Leafs vs. Jets (7:00)
Last night in a close game the Jets beat my Sabres 3-2 in a shootout for their third straight win. They’ve played pretty good hockey lately with nine wins in their last 12 games to move to 33-25-10 on the season. They’ve been pretty inconsistent and are pretty much in the middle of the pack in the NHL, averaged 3.04 goals per game and allowing an average of 2.99 goals per game. They’re still without their best offensive player in Kyle Connor, who’s out with COVID and on the second half of a back to back on the road, they’re likely to start backup Eric Comrie tonight. Comrie’s been pretty good this season with an 8-2-1 record, a 2.39 GAA and .920 save percentage but he’s not as talented as Connor Hellebuyck. The Leafs are coming off a big 6-4 win on the road in Boston on Tuesday for their third win in their last four games. They’re 42-19-5 on the season and currently hold third place in the Atlantic. Toronto’s offense has been good all season as they’ve scored the third most goals in the NHL, an average of 3.68 goals per game. They have struggled defensively though allowing an average of 3.03 goals per game with statistically the worst goaltending in the NHL since January 1st. Jack Campbell and Petr Mrazek are both still out injured, so it’ll be rookie Erik Kallgren back in goal tonight for the Leafs who has a 2.74 GAA and .911 save percentage. The first time these teams played this season in Winnipeg on December 5th, the Jets beat the Leafs 6-3. I’d lean the Leafs win this game at home tonight but don’t think they’re worth betting on a -240 (and I’m retired from betting on them anyway). I do like the over though and will take it for a unit.
Panthers vs. Blackhawks (7:00)
Florida’s a fantastic team. They’re coming off a huge 7-4 beat down of the Montreal Canadiens on Tuesday (double winner for me), bouncing back from a 5-2 loss in Toronto on Sunday. The Panthers are leading the Atlantic with a 45-15-6 record with a 27-6 record at home and have gone 10-2-1 in their last 13 games. They lead the NHL in scoring, averaging 4.06 goals per game and they have allowed an average of 2.89 goals per game. The lousy 24-33-10 Blackhawks on the other hand are coming off two giant collapses in a row. They lost 6-5 to the Sabres on Monday night where they blew a 4-0 lead and ended up losing 6-5 on an insane Tage Thompson goal with just 12 seconds left in regulation that went off the end boards, off the back of Kevin Lankinen’s stick and into the back of the net, just two days after blowing a 3-0 lead in Vegas where they lost 5-4 in overtime to the Golden Knights. This team is horrible on both ends of the ice. They are only scoring an average of 2.69 goals per game on the season, seventh fewest in the NHL but they have been able to score lately with at least five goals in all of their last five games (2-2-1 in that stretch). Defensively they’ve been terrible all year, allowing an average of 3.48 goals per game, eighth most in the NHL and for most of the year they had Marc Andre Fleury in goal to bail them out, which isn’t the case anymore with him being traded to the Wild. So now they have terrible goaltending to go along with it. Kevin Lankinen, who’s projected to start tonight has a horrendous 3.63 GAA and .886 save percentage. On February 20th in Chicago, the Panthers beat the Hawks 5-2. I’d guess tonight’s game is an even easier win for them at home. The books think so too as they’re an unbettable -335 on the ML tonight. I’ll go with a unit on the Florida TT over 4 and a half unit each on the over and the Florida puck line (not something I usually do, but even the regulation line of -210 is expensive).
Islanders vs. Blue Jackets (7:00)
These teams just played in Columbus on Tuesday, where the Isles won 4-3 (both of my leans were right on that game) and now they play the second half of that home and home on Long Island. Prior to that game, these Metro Division teams that are already all but eliminated from the playoffs had met twice this season with a 3-2 overtime win at home for the Blue Jackets on October 21st and a 6-0 shutout win for the Islanders at home on March 10th. The Isles have played good hockey lately with a 8-3-1 record in their last twelve games to get to 29-27-9 on the season. They’ve been very good defensively all season, allowing the fifth fewest goals in hockey, an average of just 2.69 goals per game. Their offense has struggled though, averaging just 2.72 goals per game, ninth fewest in the NHL. Columbus comes into tonight on a four game losing streak and a 32-30-5 record. The Blue Jackets play the complete opposite style of hockey that the Islanders play. They have a solid offense, averaging 3.21 goals per game but they’ve been one of the worst teams in the NHL defensively, allowing a third most in the league average of 3.7 goals per game. I’ll go right back to what I should’ve played on Tuesday on this game with a half unit each on the Isles moneyline and over 6 in this game.
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens (7:00)
This is a huge mismatch between one of the best teams in the NHL and one of the worst. Carolina’s one of the best teams in the NHL with a 44-15-8 record. They’re 24-5-4 at home and coming off a 4-3 overtime loss in Tampa on Tuesday night and have a 3-0-2 in their last five games. The Canes have the best defense in hockey, allowing just 2.37 goals per game and they’ve been good offensively as well, averaging 3.34 goals per game, eighth most in the NHL. The Habs on the other hand are horrible. They’re coming off a 7-4 blowout loss in Florida on Tuesday and have an 18-38-11 record with just one win in their last five games. They’ve scored the fewest goals in the NHL this season, averaging just 2.55 goals per game and they’ve allowed a second most in the NHL average of 3.76 goals per game. The Canes are 2-0 against the Canadiens this season, winning 4-1 in Montreal on October 21st and then winning 4-0 at home on December 30th. I’d expect Carolina to win pretty easily here by locking it down defensively and scoring at will. Everything straight on this game is way too expensive and I don’t see value in betting on. I actually was able to find great value on a same game parlay though with the Canes TT over 3.5 with the Habs TT under 2.5 (neither worth betting straight), which I will take for a unit. I think that’s much better value than the Canes puck line where I essentially expect a 4-2 game anyway.
Wild vs. Penguins (8:00)
Both of these teams are having great seasons and are pretty much locked in for the playoffs. The Wild are the hottest team in hockey right now, coming into tonight’s game on a seven game win streak with a 41-20-4 record. They have the fourth highest scoring offense in the NHL, averaging 3.63 goals per game. On the season, they haven’t been great defensively, allowing an average of 3.06 goals per game but that has not been the case lately. In the span of their seven game win streak, they haven’t given up more than two goals in a game and they’ve allowed an average of only 1.43 goals per game in that span. The Penguins are a good team too. They’re 40-18-10 on the season, currently holding the third place spot in the Metro Division. They’re coming off a 3-2 loss to the Rangers at home on Tuesday night (winner on my under in that game) after an 11-2 blowout win against the Red Wings on Sunday, which was their only win in their last four games. Pittsburgh has been one of the best teams in the NHL defensively allowing an average of just 2.59 goals per game, third fewest in the league. A lot of that could be credited to Tristan Jarry in goal and he’s getting the night off with Casey DeSmith confirmed in goal. DeSmith hasn’t been very good this season with a 6-4-4 record, 2.96 GAA and .905 save percentage and he’s given up four goals in each of his last two starts (against Sabres and Preds). The first game these teams played this season on November 6th in Pittsburgh was electric with the Wild winning 5-4 in a shootout that saw Kasperi Kapanen scored a hat trick for the Pens but Ryan Hartman scoring the tying goal for Minnesota with just three seconds remaining in regulation. With DeSmith starting tonight, I’d expect Minnesota to win this one at home to keep the win streak going. I’ll go with the Wild ML and Wild TT over 3 here for a unit each. I’d lean the under but not enough to bet on it with Casey DeSmith in goal for the Pens and two good offenses.
Avalanche vs. Sharks (9:00)
The Avs pretty much have the #1 seed in the Western Conference locked up with a 47-14-6 record. They’re 26-4-3 at home this season, coming off a 2-1 win in Calgary on Tuesday night (split that game, hitting the under but losing the Flames ML) and they have a 6-1-1 record in their last eight games. The Avs have the second highest scoring offense in the NHL, averaging 3.76 goals per game and they’ve allowed an average of just 2.75 goals per game, eighth fewest in the NHL. They are without several key players still with Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog, Bowen Byram, and Sam Girard out of the lineup. The Sharks haven’t been great this season at 29-29-8 and they’re on the second half of a back to back after losing 5-2 in Arizona last night (winner on the over for me). They have three wins in their last five games (and eight games for that matter). On the year, San Jose hasn’t been great on either end of the ice. They’re averaging just 2.62 goals per game, sixth fewest in the NHL and they’ve allowed an average of 3.14 goals per game. Colorado got two pretty easy wins against the Sharks this season with a 6-2 win at home on November 13th and a 5-3 win in San Jose on March 18th and I don’t expect anything different tonight. I don’t think the -345 moneyline is worth the price here (ever, on any game). I will lay the juice on the regulation line for the Avs and the over 6 for a unit each and a half unit each on the Avs TT over 3.5 and Sharks TT under 2.5 in regulation.
Flames vs. Kings (9:00)
The Flames are one of the best teams in the NHL this season at 40-18-8 but are coming off a 2-1 loss at home against the Avs on Tuesday night. They’ve been very good on both ends of the ice. They’re averaging 3.48 goals per game, sixth most in the NHL and they’re allowing an average of just 2.46 goals per game. Jacob Markstrom’s been great in goal with a 2.16 GAA, .925 save percentage and 9 shutouts this season. The Kings are in a slump with a bunch of injuries, coming off a 4-3 shootout loss last night in Edmonton and they have a 4-4-3 record in their last eleven games. They’re 36-23-10 on the season but still sit in second place in the weak Pacific Division. They’ve struggled offensively, averaging 2.81 goals per game, twelfth fewest in the NHL. LA has been very good defensively though, allowing an average of 2.77 goals per game, ninth fewest in the NHL. The first time these Pacific Division teams played this season on December 2nd, the Flames won 3-2 on the road. I’d expect them to win again tonight at home, looking to bounce back to their loss on Tuesday to the Avs, especially with the struggling Kings coming into this game on the second half of a back to back. The ML is too expensive at -335 but I’ll go with the Flames to win inside regulation for a unit. I’d lean the under here too but both of these teams have been trending over lately so I’ll just stay off the total.
Ducks vs. Stars (10:00)
These teams just played each other in Dallas on Tuesday night, which was a pretty close game with the Stars winning 3-2 (and cashing my bet on them). The Stars are 37-25-3 on the season with five wins in their last seven games. They currently sit one point behind Vegas for the final Wild Card spot in the Western Conference in a tight playoff race. Dallas hasn’t been particularly fun of a team to watch, averaging 2.89 goals per game and allowing an average of 2.95 per game. They play boring hockey and grind out wins in close games. The Ducks have been on a terrible slump on a ten game losing streak dropping to 27-30-11 on the season. They have the tenth lowest scoring offense in the NHL, averaging just 2.75 goals per game and they have allowed an average of 3.18 goals per game, twelfth most in the NHL. I’ll take Dallas again on the road tonight for a unit.
1.5u Bruins in regulation (-143)
.5u Bruins TT over 3.5 (-150)
1u Leafs/Blue Jackets over 6.5 (-124)
1u Florida TT over 4 (-165)
.5u Florida -1.5 (-143)
.5u Florida/Chicago over 7 (-105)
.5u Isles ML (-185)
.5u Isles/Blue Jackets over 6 (-130)
1u SGP: Carolina TT over 3.5 & Montreal TT under 2.5 (+132)
1u Wild ML (-122)
1u Wild TT over 3 (-165)
1u Avs in regulation (-210)
1u Avs/Sharks over 6 (-135)
.5u Avs TT over 3.5 (-182)
.5u Sharks TT under 2.5 in regulation (-175)
1u Flames in regulation (-195)
1u Stars ML (-180)
Record: 622-470-23 (-7.91 units)