Course Breakdown

7435 yard, Par 72, Greg Norman design (with Sergio Garcia), overseeded Bermuda grass throughout, plays very long, the Par 5s are long, all of them around 600 yds with only one reachable in 2 by most golfers (Par 5s here play the hardest of any course on tour), 3 of the Par 3s are between 150-175 yds, 58 bunkers and water hazards on 3 holes, average driving distance here is longer than tour average by a few yards since guys don’t care to hit the fairways, very hard to hit narrow tree lined fairways (~56% driving accuracy vs. ~62% tour average) with large bunkers in play, shorter rough isn’t too penal to get out of, native areas will be very hard to get out of if you miss the fairways wildly, very hard to hit greens (~56% GIR vs. tour average ~66%), average speed greens that are multitiered with lots of undulation, closely mowed edges of greens (like Augusta), it can get very windy here with the prevailing winds more to the players backs on longer holes and in their face on the shorter ones

Tournament Notes

• There isn’t as much of a difference between SG: OTT and Approach as there usually is, so you need to be good off the tee here and SG: OTT becomes more influential the higher the finish
• Last chance to get into The Masters by winning this tournament, this is only the third year that it’s been the tournament the week before The Masters
• Historically one of the 10 hardest courses on tour but has played a bit easier the past few years
• Besides Landry in 2018 who didn’t play the year before he won, 5 of the last 6 winners have a T30 the year before here (Spieth last year was technically 2 years since the 2020 tournament was cancelled because of covid, but still fits this trend since he came T30 in 2019 here)
• Last 4 winners here were 4th, 1st, 1st and 2nd in SG: Approach for the week
• 6 of the last 11 winners here (since they started playing this event at this course in 2010) were the 54 hole leaders

Key Stats

Approach, SG: OTT, Driving Distance

Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 yds (20.5%), 200+ yds (18.4%), 175-200 yds (18.3%)

Field

141 golfers – pretty good strength for this event with Rory, Bryson, Hideki (both coming off injury) and Spieth all in the field

Defending Champion: Jordan Spieth (-18)

Runner Up Last Year: Charley Hoffman (-16)

One and Done: Gary Woodland

One and Done Considerations: Rory, Bryson, Woodland

Players

Rory McIlroy: 11200: +850 – skipped Match Play last week to play this event, T33,T13,T10,3,T12 his last 5 events, 2nd here his only time here back in 2013, 30th in approach, 2nd in SG: OTT, 3rd in driving distance, 10th in Par 5 scoring, 42nd in proximity 150-175 yds, 7th in proximity 200+ yds, 46th in proximity 175-200 yds, 8th in SG: ARG, 26th in putting, 1st in opportunities gained, 2nd in birdie+ gained, 4th in bogie avoidance, not worth betting at this price

Bryson DeChambeau: 10200: +2500 – coming off an injury so who knows how he’s recovered and hasn’t played much this year besides his MC at Farmers, MC both his times here in 2017 and 2016 but he wasn’t the superstar he is now back then, 47th in approach, 1st in SG: OTT, 1st in driving distance, 1st in Par 5 scoring, 72nd in proximity 150-175 yds, 1st in proximity 200+ yds, 8-th in proximity 175-200 yds, 138th in SG: ARG, 4th in putting, 2nd in opportunities gained, 1st in birdie+ gained, 87th in bogie avoidance

Gary Woodland: 9300: +2800 – 6th here last year, 26,75 his last two times here before that back in 2015 and 2013, 21,MC,5,5 his last four events, 21st in approach, 81st in SG: OTT, 16th in driving distance, 6th in Par 5 scoring, 57th in proximity 150-175 yds, 12th in proximity 200+ yds, 50th in proximity 175-200 yds, 42nd in SG: ARG, 36th in putting, 22nd in opportunities gained, 22nd in birdie+ gained, 21st in bogie avoidance

Keegan Bradley: 9200: +3300 – 23,45,MC,37,9 his five times here (2021,2018,2017,2016,2011), MC,5,11,48,26 his last five events, 8th in approach, 11th in SG: OTT, 28th in driving distance, 60th in Par 5 scoring, 56th in proximity 150-175 yds, 17th in proximity 200+ yds, 20th in proximity 175-200 yds, 53rd in SG: ARG, 120th in putting, 3rd in opportunities gained, 24th in birdie+ gained, 66th in bogie avoidance

Luke List: 8500: +5500 – 17,MC,MC,MC,29,46 his last six times here, MC,MC,53,1,2210,11 his last seven events, 7th in approach, 4th in SG: OTT, 13th in driving distance, 8th in Par 5 scoring, 91st in proximity 150-175 yds, 15th in proximity 200+ yds, 1st in proximity 175-200 yds, 4th in SG: ARG, 139th in putting, 4th in opportunities gained, 3rd in birdie+ gained, 28th in bogie avoidance

Martin Laird: 7500: +10000 – former winner here in 2013 and has a 9th place finish in 2011, 30,36,11,18 his last four years here, MC,MC,52,39,14,46 his last six events, 10th in approach, 33rd in SG: OTT, 76th in driving distance, 17th in Par 5 scoring, 2nd in proximity 150-175 yds, 16th in proximity 200+ yds, 16th in proximity 175-200 yds, 47th in SG: ARG, 136th in putting, 14th in opportunities gained, 72nd in birdie+ gained, 20th in bogie avoidance

Model

Approach (20%)

SG: OTT (15%)

Driving distance (5%)

Par 5 scoring (10%)

Proximity 150-175 yds (5%)

Proximity 200+ yds (5%)

Proximity 175-200 yds (5%)

SG: ARG (10%)

Putting (5%)

Opportunities gained (10%)

Birdie+ gained (5%)

Bogie avoidance (5%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

Bets

Outrights

.24u Bryson DeChambeau (+2500)

.22u Gary Woodland (+2800)

.2u Keegan Bradley (+3300)

.12u Luke List (+5500)

.06u Martin Laird (+10000)

T6s

.24u Bryson DeChambeau (+500)

.22u Gary Woodland (+560)

.2u Keegan Bradley (+660)

.12u Luke List (+1100)

T5s

.06u Martin Laird (+1800)

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