Great night on yesterday’s big NHL slate as I went 11-3-3 to win 5.72 units. Huge night. Tonight we have a seven game Friday night slate. Let’s keep crushing it!
Sabres vs. Predators (7:00)
Tonight will be a memorable and emotional evening for the Sabres organization as long time, legendary play by play guy Rick Jeanneret calls his final game and has his name lifted to the rafters of KeyBank Center. The Sabres have been playing very entertaining hockey lately and staying in games, collecting at least a point in nine of their last ten games with a 6-1-3 record in that stretch to improve to 24-33-11 on the season. Six of their last seven games have gone to overtime and the one that didn’t was a Sabres win with just twelve seconds remaining in regulation against the Blackhawks. On the season, the Sabres are averaging just 2.69 goals per game, eighth fewest in the NHL but in the span of their last ten games have averaged 3.2 goals per game. They’ve been pretty bad on the back end too, allowing a seventh most in the NHL average of 3.49 goals per game. Nashville’s having a good season at 39-24-4, coming off back to back wins against Ottawa and Philly. They currently hold the first Wild Card seed in the Western Conference and are a point out from the Blues for the 3 seed in the Central. The Preds have been good on both ends of the ice this season. They’re averaging 3.27 goals per game, eleventh most in the NHL and they’re allowing an average of 2.88 goals per game. Juuse Saros is one of the best goalies in the NHL with a 2.55 GAA and .921 save percentage. He hasn’t been his best recently though. Back on January 13th when these teams played in Smashville, I had one of my biggest losses of the season as the Sabres won 4-1. I think the Sabres get fired up and feed off the energy of a sold out crowd in Buffalo tonight for the first time in three seasons to pull off another upset against the Preds. I’ll go with a unit on the Sabres +1.5, half a unit on the ML and half a unit on the over.
Lightning vs. Blackhawks (7:00)
Easily the biggest mismatch on tonight’s NHL slate. The back to back defending Stanley Cup champion Bolts are a great team that could definitely contend to win the Cup again. They’re 42-18-6 and on a three game win streak, coming off a big 4-3 overtime win against the Hurricanes on Tuesday night. They’re averaging 3.29 goals per game, tenth most in the NHL and are allowing just 2.74 goals per game, seventh fewest in the NHL. Andrei Vasilevskiy’s one of the best goalies in the NHL with a 2.37 GAA and .919 save percentage. On the other hand the Blackhawks are horrible this season and they just keep on tanking. They’re 24-34-10 and on a three game losing streak after getting shut out 4-0 in Florida last night. They’ve averaged only 2.65 goals per game, seventh fewest in the NHL and have allowed an average of 3.49 goals per game, seventh most in the NHL. Those defensive numbers are going to keep tanking too without Mark Andre Fleury between the pipes anymore since he got traded to the Wild at the deadline. Kevin Lankinen’s projected to start tonight after Collin Delia started for them last night. Lankinen’s terrible with a 3.63 GAA and .886 save percentage. Last month on March 6th, the Lightning got a 6-3 win in Chicago. They should win even easier tonight. The ML at -360 and even the regulation line of -220 are too expensive for me to bet here but I’ll go with a unit each on the Tampa puck line and TT over 3.5 along with half a unit on the over 6.
Rangers vs. Islanders (7:00)
One of the best rivalries in the NHL between the two New York City teams. The Rangers are having an awesome season with a 44-19-5 record, currently sitting in second place in the Metropolitan Division. They’re coming off a 5-4 overtime win in Detroit (double winner for me) on Wednesday for their fourth straight win and they have eight wins in their last ten games. The Rags have averaged 3.04 goals per game but have been very good defensively, allowing a third fewest in the NHL average of 2.59 goals per game. This year’s guaranteed Vezina winner Igor Shesterkin’s been incredible this season with a 2.11 GAA and .936 save percentage. The Isles have played pretty well lately, coming off back to back wins against the Blue Jackets last night (double winner for me) and Tuesday. They have been largely disappointing this season with a 30-27-9 record but they have a 9-3-1 record in their last 13 games. Like the Rangers, they’ve been very good defensively as well, allowing just a sixth fewest in the NHL average of 2.68 goals per game. They’ve really struggled offensively though, averaging just 2.76 goals per game, tenth fewest in the NHL. These teams split their two previous games with the road team winning each one. The Rangers won 4-1 on November 24th on Long Island and the Islanders won 2-1 on March 17th in MSG. I like the Rangers to win this one tonight at home, especially with the Isles on the second half of a back to back and will take them for a unit. I’d also expect this to be a low scoring, defensive grind of a game and will take the under for a unit as well. Even though four of the last five games for each of these teams went over, I still like the under in this matchup, which is 2-0 so far this season when these teams have met.
Red Wings vs. Senators (7:30)
What a shitty game this is between two terrible teams. The Red Wings are on a four game losing streak, coming off a 5-4 overtime loss at home to the Rangers on Wednesday night. They are 26-32-9 on the season and they have just three wins in their last 16 games. They have fared much better at home though where they have a 17-12-6 record. Detroit has averaged just 2.84 goals per game and they’re the worst team in the NHL defensively, allowing an average of 3.82 goals per game, the most in all of hockey. Somehow the Senators are even worse of a team with a 23-37-6 record and they have just four wins in their last 16 games. Ottawa’s scoring an average of just 2.58 goals per game, fourth fewest in the NHL while they’re allowing an average of 3.26 goals per game, tenth most in the NHL. They’ll be starting prospect Mads Søgaard in goal tonight, making his NHL debut. I’d slightly lean the Red Wings to get a win any home tonight in this lousy matchup and would slightly lean the over, but not enough to bet on either of them. I want nothing to do with this game.
Oilers vs. Blues (9:00)
I’d expect a pretty tight game in this matchup. The Blues come into tonight’s game off back to back wins against Vancouver on Wednesday and Monday. They’re 37-20-9, currently holding third place in the Central Division by a point over Nashville. They haven’t played great lately with just five wins in their last 14 games. The Blues have been great on both ends of the ice this year. They’re averaging 3.52 goals per game, fifth most in the NHL and they’ve allowed an average of just 2.85 goals per game, eleventh fewest in the NHL. Currently Jordan Binnington’s projected to start for them tonight. He hasn’t been great this season with a 3.14 GAA and .901 save percentage. The Oilers are 38-25-5 on the season with a 22-12 record at home. They’ve played good hockey lately with an 8-2-1 record in their last eleven games and are coming off back to back wins, most recently a 4-3 shootout win against the Kings on Wednesday night on a McNasty winner. McDavid (100 points, 63 assists) and Draisaitl (97 points, 49 goals) are fucking incredible and with those two leading the way and no real depth behind them, the Oilers are averaging 3.43 goals per game, seventh most in the NHL. They’ve been bad defensively though, allowing an average of 3.22 goals per game, eleventh most in the NHL. Mike Smith, who’s confirmed in goal tonight has a 7-9-2 record with a 3.41 GAA and .896 save percentage. I’d slightly lean the Blues win this game, especially if Husso ends up starting but not enough to bet on the ML, but I’ll take the puck line for a unit. I also really like the over here, expecting both teams to be able to score a good amount and will take the over 6.5 for a unit as well.
Kraken vs. Golden Knights (10:00)
These teams just played each other on Wednesday night in Vegas with Logan Thompson getting his first career shutout in a 3-0 Golden Knights win in Seattle. That was the Knight’s third win in their three games against the Kraken this season after a 4-3 win on October 12th and a 4-2 win on November 9th both in the Fortress in Vegas. Vegas is on a three game win streak coming into tonight with a 37-28-4 record, currently a point out from Dallas for the final Wild Card spot in the Western Conference. They need to find a way to keep winning if they want to get into the playoffs and with their cap problems they won’t be able to activated Mark Stone and Alec Martinez until then…if they get in. The Knights have definitely had their struggles with injuries this season and have had trouble winning games since Stone went on long term IR but they have five wins in their last seven games. On the season they’ve averaged 3.12 goals per game and have allowed an average of 2.97 goals per game. The Kraken’s inaugural season has gone terribly. They have a 21-40-6 record and they were big sellers at the deadline for draft picks. Seattle does have four wins though in their last seven games. They’ve been horrible on both ends of the ice, scoring just a fifth fewest in the NHL average of 2.6 goals per game and allowing an average of 3.51 goals per game, sixth fewest in the NHL. I like the Golden Knights to win to help keep their playoff push alive and I’ll take them for a unit tonight on the road in Seattle.
Coyotes vs. Ducks (10:30)
Coyotes vs. Ducks (10:30)
Both of these teams have sucked lately. The Ducks are 27-30-12 on the season and come into tonight on an eleven game losing streak, coming off a 3-2 overtime loss against Dallas last night (winner for me). They’ve averaged just 2.74 goals per game, ninth fewest in the NHL and they’re allowing an average of 3.17 goals per game, twelfth fewest in the NHL. The Yotes are somehow even worse. They’re 21-41-5 and coming off a 5-2 win against the Sharks on Wednesday that ended their six game losing streak. The Coyotes have scored the second fewest goals in the NHL, an average of just 2.57 goals per game and they’re allowing an average of 3.55 goals per game, fifth most in the NHL. The Yotes best player and their leading goal scorer, Clayton Keller will be out the rest of the season after getting stretchered off the ice on Wednesday night. These teams split their two previous matchups in Anaheim with a 3-1 Ducks win on November 5th and a 6-5 Coyotes win in overtime on December 17th. I’d lean the Coyotes at home but I have no interest in betting this matchup.
1u Sabres +1.5 (-160)
.5u Sabres ML (+160)
.5u Sabres/Predators over 6 (-109)
1u Lightning -1.5 (-123)
1u Lightning TT over 3.5 (-182)
.5u Lightning/Blackhawks over 6 (-132)
1u Rangers ML (-175)
1u Rangers/Islanders under 5.5 (-124)
1u Blues +1.5 (-175)
1u Blues/Oilers over 6.5 (-143)
1u Golden Knights ML (-160)
Record: 633-473-26 (-2.19 units)
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