NHL Daily Gambling Preview – 4/7/22

Not my best night on the NHL yesterday, going 3-5 to lose 3.28 units. I was a Johnny hockey goal away from hitting a huge SGP on the Flames game last night (he had two assists) that would’ve won me 17 units but whatever. Huge ten game slate tonight. Let’s win some bets. 

Rangers vs. Penguins (7:00)

The Rangers got a solid 3-1 win (split that one, I won on the ML, lost on the over) on Tuesday night in NJ to bounce off their two previous losses to the Flyers and Islanders. They’ve played well this season, sitting in second place in the Metropolitan Division with a 45-20-6 record. They’re 22-7-4 at home in MSG and have a 9-3-1 record in their last 13 games. With Igor Shesterkin’s Vezina level play in goal (2.14 GAA, .933 save percentage), the Rags have allowed the third fewest goals in hockey, an average of just 2.58 goals per game. Offensively, the haven’t been great, averaging just 3 goals per game. The Penguins are coming off back to back losses in their home and home against the Avalanche on Tuesday and Saturday but they’re having a good season, currently in third in the Central with a 41-20-10 record. Like the Rangers, they’ve been very good defensively as well, allowing an average of just 2.65 goals per game, fourth fewest in the NHL. Tristan Jarry’s having a great year in goal with a 2.39 GAA and .920 save percentage. Pittsburgh’s been good offensively as well, averaging 3.3 goals per game, eighth most in the NHL. These two likely Metro Division playoff teams have played each other three times this season and the Rangers are 2-1 in those games with a 1-0 Penguins win at home on February 26th, a 5-1 Rangers win at home on March 25th and a 3-2 Rangers win in Pittsburgh on March 29th. I think the Penguins are the better, more well rounded team here but this game is essentially a coin flip to me in MSG and I don’t see any edge in betting a side. I do like the under though and will take it for a unit.

Blue Jackets vs. Flyers (7:00)

Both of these teams blow and they just played each other on Tuesday with the Blue Jackets winning 4-2 in Philly. That was their second win on the road in Philly this season after they had beaten the Flyers 2-1 on January 20th. Columbus has been awful lately with that win on Tuesday ending their seven game losing streak. The Jackets are very inconsistent with a 33-32-6 record. They’ve been good offensively, averaging 3.17 goals per game, 13th most in the NHL but they’ve been horrendous defensively, allowing a third most in the NHL average of 3.7 goals per game. The Flyers, who have just one win in their last six games and a 22-37-11 record have been horrible as well, on both ends of the ice. They’re scoring just 2.57 goals per game, third fewest in the NHL and they’ve allowed an average of 3.51 goals per game, sixth most in the NHL. I’d lean the Blue Jackets and the over in this game, but not enough to bet on it here. I do see some value though in the Jackets TT over 3 that is only -165, which I’ll take for a unit. 

Senators vs. Predators (7:00)

This is a pretty lopsided matchup. The Ottawa Senators have been terrible this season with a 26-37-6 record but they come into tonight’s game on a three game win streak. Those wins came against the Habs and Detroit twice, so don’t put a ton of stock in those. The Sens have been bad on both ends of the ice. They’ve averaged just 2.7 goals per game, seventh fewest in the NHL and they have allowed a tenth most in the NHL average of 3.22 goals per game. The Preds have been pretty solid this year at 40-25-4, coming off a big 6-2 win against the Wild on Tuesday. They currently hold the first Wild Card spot in the tight Western Conference playoff race, a point ahead of the Stars and two points ahead of the Golden Knights. Nashville’s good on both ends of the ice. They’re scoring an average of 3.3 goals per game, eighth most in the NHL and they have allowed a twelfth fewest in the NHL average of 2.88 goals per game. Juuse Saros is a top tier goaltender in the NHL with a 2.56 GAA and .921 save percentage. The first time these teams played in Nashville on March 29th, the Preds won easily 4-1. I’d expect a similar game tonight on the road for them. I’ll go with a unit on the ML and half a unit on the puck line. I’d lean the under but not enough to bet on it.

Devils vs. Canadiens (7:00)

These are two of the worst teams in the NHL facing off tonight in Jersey. The Devils are on a four game losing streak with just one win in their last seven games to drop to 24-40-6 on the season. They’ve averaged 3.01 goals per game and they’ve allowed a fourth most in the NHL average of 3.67 goals per game. The Habs are even worse. They have the worst record in hockey at 19-40-11 and have only one win in their last five games. They’ve scored the second fewest goals in the NHL, averaging just 2.54 goals per game, only ahead of Arizona. On the back end they’re just as bad, allowing an average of 2.8 goals per game, tied with Detroit for the most in the NHL. The Devils are 2-0 this season against Montreal with a 7-1 blowout on the road on February 8th and a 3-2 shootout win at home on March 27th. I was going to stay off this game completely, but I feel like there’s actually a bit of value to the Devils at home and I’ll take them for a half unit to end their losing streak. 

Hurricanes vs. Sabres (7:30)

This is the second half of a home and home between these teams after my Sabres pulled off a 4-2 upset at home against the Canes on Tuesday (and of course I didn’t bet on them in this one). That game evened up the season series between these teams after the Hurricanes embarrassed the Sabres 6-2 on December 4th in Carolina. My Sabres have played very entertaining hockey lately, their best of the season with an 8-2-3 record in their last 13 games. Unfortunately though, its way too late for them to find success as they’re officially eliminated from playoff contention for a record breaking eleventh straight season. Pain. They have a 26-34-11 record and haven’t been great on either end of the ice this season. Buffalo has averaged 2.73 goals per game on the season, eighth fewest in the NHL but recently they’ve been able to light the lamp, averaging 3.75 goals per game in their last eight. They haven’t been good defensively though, allowing an average of 3.48 goals per game on the year, ninth most in the NHL. Carolina’s very good with a 45-17-8 record to lead the Metropolitan Division. They are on a bit of a poor stretch lately though with just one win in their last four games and just four wins in their last twelve. The Hurricanes have allowed the fewest goals in the NHL, an average of 2.37 goals per game and they’ve been very good offensively as well, averaging 3.3 goals per game, eighth most in the NHL. The Canes should win this game tonight, likely pretty easy at home, especially coming off their loss in the first half of their home and home but as a Sabres fan and with how well they’ve played lately, I’m not betting on it in this game. Plus the price is way too expensive to back the Carolina ML at a ridiculous -390. I’d lean the over but not enough to bet on it.

Blackhawks vs. Kraken (8:30)

These two teams are horrendous. The Blackhawks are 24-35-11 and come into tonight game on a five game losing streak off a 3-2 overtime loss at home to the Yotes on Sunday. They’ve been terrible on both ends of the ice, averaging just 2.63 goals per game, sixth fewest in the NHL and allowing an average of 3.5 goals per game, seventh most in the NHL. Their goaltending is horrible since trading Fleury (which was the right move, no way he was re-signing there this coming offseason) and Kevin Lankinen, who’s confirmed in goal tonight has a brutal 3.61 GAA and .888 save percentage. The Kraken have an even worse record at 22-42-6 this inaugural season. They have just one win in their last four games and just six wins in their last 22 games. Seattle has allowed the same amount of goals as the Blackhawks have, an average of 3.5 goals per game, seventh most in the NHL and they’ve scored even less, averaging only 2.59 goals per game, fourth fewest in the league. These teams split their prior two matchups in Seattle with a 4-2 Blackhawks win on November 17th and a 3-2 shootout win for the Kraken on January 17th. I’d lean the Blackhawks win this one at home and end their losing streak, especially with the Kraken on the second half of a road back to back but I don’t think they’re worth betting on. I’d lean the under as well but not enough to bet it with two bad defenses. I’ll lay off this game entirely. 

Stars vs. Maple Leafs (8:30)

This is a very interesting matchup to me. The Leafs love blowing leads and on Tuesday night they somehow find a way to blow a 5-1 lead in Florida with the Panthers eventually beating them 7-6 in overtime. That’s hilarious fashion to lose, which as a hater of the Leafs I loved to see (and double winner for me on Florida and the over, thank youuuuu). That loss ended a five game win streak for Toronto in exactly the fashion that I’d expect them to get bounced from the playoffs, showcasing their great offense and horrible defense and goaltending. They’ve played great lately with eight wins in their last eleven games. Toronto has the second highest scoring offense in the NHL, averaging 3.83 goals per game on the season. Where they’ve struggled is on the back end, allowing an average of 3.07 goals per game. They’ve gotten the worst goaltending statistically in the NHL since January 1st regardless of who they start. Jack  Campbell’s likely to get the nod tonight and even though he started the season great, he’s dropped off significantly and and now has a 2.71 GAA and .913 save percentage for the year. The Dallas Stars, another team I hate (Hull’s foot was in the crease in ’99) are playing a great run of hockey right now with eight wins in their last eleven games to improve to 40-26-3 on the season. The Western Conference Wild Card race is so tight and Dallas sits in that second Wild Card seed, just a point ahead of Vegas (but with three games in hand) and a point behind Nashville. Every game and every point is key for this team that plays relatively boring hockey. They are averaging 2.9 goals per game and they’re allowing an average of 2.96 goals per game. Scott Wedgewood will get his third start for the Stars this season tonight, the third team he’s played for this season (traded here from the Coyotes after he was claimed by them off waivers from NJ). He hasn’t been great this year with a 3.18 GAA and .909 save percentage but he’s undefeated as a Star with a 4-3 shootout win against the Canes and 5-4 win against the Sharks. The first time these cross conference teams played this season on March 15th in Toronto, Erik Kallgren shut out the Stars in his first career game, a 4-0 Leafs win. I’ll go with the over in this game for a unit, expecting both teams to give up a handful of goals and expecting the Leafs to be able to score. Toronto should win this game, but the Stars have a lot more to play for in the West and they’re at home (plus I’m retiring from betting on the Leafs) so I’ll stay off a side in this one.

Coyotes vs. Canucks (10:00)

Last night the Canucks cruised past the Golden Knights in Vegas with a 5-1 blowout win. That was their first win (and a loss for me) in their last four games with just four wins in their last 13 games. They’ve struggled offensively, averaging just 2.82 goals per game, twelfth fewest in the NHL but they’ve been good defensively, allowing a tenth fewest in the NHL average of 2.82 goals per game. The Yotes are horrible at 22-43-5 and they’ve had even worse luck lately, losing all of their key players to injuries. They’re coming off a 5-1 blowout loss in St. Louis on Monday night and just have two wins in their last ten games, winning two of their last four. Arizona has the lowest scoring offense in the NHL this season, averaging just 2.51 goals per game. They haven’t been a whole lot better on the back end either, allowing an average of 3.57 goals per game, fifth most in the NHL. Tonight they’re starting Harri Sateri for the first time this season, who’s been a journeyman backup and hasn’t;t started a game in the NHL since 2017. When these teams played the first time this season in Vancouver on February 8th, the Nuk’s blew out the Coyotes 5-1. Even on the second half of a road back to back, I like them to win again tonight. I’ll take the Canucks ML and the Canucks TT over 3 for 1.5 units and the puck line for half a unit. 

Kings vs. Oilers (10:30)

This is a previous of a very likely first round playoff game out of the Pacific Division and this game could eventually end up determining home ice for that series. The Oilers are playing great lately, rattling off five straight wins with an 11-2-1 record in their last 14 games to improve to 41-25-5 on the season. They’re now a point ahead of the Kings, their likely round one playoff opponent for second place in the Pacific Division. Connor McDavid (106 points, 65 assists) and Leon Draisaitl (101 points, 50 goals) are two of the top three leaders in the NHL. Draisaitl was out on Tuesday for their overtime 2-1 win against the Sharks but is expected to return to the lineup tonight. The Oilers don’t have a lot of offensive depth behind those two guys but they’re so good that the two of them are so good that Edmonton has the sixth highest scoring offense in the NHL, averaging 3.48 goals per game. They’ve been lousy defensively, allowing an average of 3.18 goals per game, eleventh most in the NHL but have just allowed a goal in each of their last two games in their Cali road trip to the Ducks and Sharks. The Kings are coming off a 3-2 loss to the Flames on Monday night (which I hit a nice exact score prop on) and they’ve been slumping a bit lately but they’re still a decent 38-24-10. They’re a point behind the Oilers in third place in the weak Pacific Division. LA’s been really solid on the back end this season, allowing an average of 2.75 goals per game, eighth fewest in the NHL. The opposite of the Oilers, they’ve struggled offensively as they’re scoring an average of 2.79 goals per game, eleventh fewest in the NHL. The Oilers are 2-1 this season against the Kings, losing 5-1 at home on December 5th, winning 5-2 in LA on February 15th and winning 4-3 in a shootout on March 30th at home. I like the Oilers to win this one again tonight and I’ll take them for half a unit. 

Sharks vs. Flames (10:30)

Last night I was so close to a huge 17 unit win on a same game parlay for the Flames game, hitting 3/4 legs just missing it by a Johnny Gaudreau goal with his two points last night coming off assists in their 4-2 win over the Ducks. That was Calgary’s second win in a row after beating the Kings 3-2 (which I hit a nice exact score prop on) after ending a three game losing streak. The Flames lead the Pacific with a 42-19-9 record. They’ve been very good on both ends of the ice. They’re averaging 3.47 goals goals per game, seventh most in the NHL and they’ve allowed an average of just 2.49 goals per game, only behind Carolina for the second fewest in the NHL. Jacob Markstrom, who’s projected to start tonight has been one of the best goalies in the NHL with a 2.18 GAA and .924 save percentage with nine shutouts this year. The Sharks have been horrible and come into tonight’s game on a four game losing streak after losing Tuesday night at home in overtime to the Oilers. They’re 29-31-9 on the season and have been quite bad on both ends of the ice. SJ is averaging only 2.61 goals per game, fifth fewest in the NHL and allowing an average of 3.16 goals per game, 13th most in the NHL. Shockingly the Sharks are somehow 3-0 this season against Calgary with a 4-1 win on the road on November 9th, a 5-3 win on December 7th and a 4-3 win on March 22nd. Calgary should flip the script on that with a win tonight. I’ll go with a unit on the Flames.

Game Bets

1u Penguins/Rangers under 6 (-118)

1u Blue Jackets TT over 3 (-165)

1u Predators ML (-175)

.5u Predators -1.5 (+145)

.5u Devils ML (-155)

1u Leafs/Stars over 6.5 (-120)

1u Canucks ML (-170)

1.5u Canucks TT over 3 (-190)

.5u Canucks -1.5 (+140)

.5u Oilers ML (-127)

1u Flames ML (-184)

Record: 675-498-27 (+7.32 units)


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