Great night yesterday on the NHL going 5-0-1, winning 4 units for my second big winning day! Huge twelve game slate today. Let’s get after it!
Stars vs. Devils (2:00)
The Devils have played horrible lately, coming off a 7-4 loss at home to the Montreal Canadiens, the worst team in the NHL. That was their fifth straight loss and they only have two wins in their last twelve games to drop to 24-41-6 on the season. New Jersey has scored an average of 3.03 goals per game but they’ve been horrible defensively, allowing a third most in the NHL average of 3.72 goals per game. The Stars are coming off a 4-3 overtime loss at home to the Leafs on Thursday (winning my over) for their second loss in their last three games but they’ve played well lately with a 7-2-1 record in their last ten games. They’re 40-26-4 on the season and they currently hold the second Wild Card spot in the tight Western Conference, two points ahead of the Golden Knights with two games in hand and two points behind the Predators. Dallas plays pretty boring hockey, averaging 2.9 goals per game and allowing an average of 2.97 goals per game, so I expect if they get into the playoffs, that first round against Colorado doesn’t last long (for the record, I think any team besides a healthy Vegas gets trounced in that first round against the Avs). The Stars have been a significantly better team at home where they are 22-9-2 than they have on the road. In the first time these teams played this season in NJ, the Stars blew out the Devils 5-1. I’d expect another win here from them with every point being so important. I’ll go with a unit on the Stars in regulation.
Penguins vs. Capitals (3:00)
These teams have been a great rivalry since the two greatest players of a generation, Sid and Ovi, entered the NHL in the same year. Both Metropolitan Division teams are likely in the playoffs in the East with the Pens in third place in the division and the Caps in the second Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference with an eleven point lead over the Islanders. The Penguins come into tonight’s game on a three game losing streak off a 3-0 shutout loss to the Rangers and they only have two wins in their last eight games but are still a solid 41-21-10 on the season. Tristan Jarry’s been great this season for the Pens in goal (and is confirmed to start today) with a 2.38 GAA and .920 save percentage. With his play in goal, the Penguins have allowed a fifth fewest in the NHL average of 2.65 goals per game and they’ve scored an eleventh most in the NHL average of 3.25 goals per game. The Caps are 38-22-10 and in a very entertaining game on Wednesday night, they held off the Bolts to win 4-3 at home (double loser for me on the Lightning and under). They just have three wins in their last six games but have a 10-4-1 record in their last 15 games. The Capitals have been good on both ends of the ice, averaging 3.21 goals per game and allowing an average of 2.9 goals per game. In the three games these teams have played this season, the Caps are 2-1 against the Penguins with a 6-1 blowout win at home on November 14th, a 4-2 loss at home on December 10th and 4-3 overtime win in Pittsburgh on February 1st. I’d slightly lean the Penguins get a win here at home today, but not enough to bet on it. I like the over, expecting both teams to light the lamp and will take the alternate over 6 for a unit.
Predators vs. Panthers (6:00)
Florida’s one of the best teams in the NHL and after beating my Sabres 4-3 last night (solid game that I went 1-0-1 on, winning on Sabres +1.5 easily and pushing the over) they’re on a seven game win streak with a 16-2-1 record in their last 19 games. They were the first team in the NHL to clinch a playoff spot this season and have a 50-15-6 record. Florida has the top offense in the NHL, averaging 4.15 goals per game. They’ve allowed an average of 2.94 goals per game. When the season started Sergei Bobrovsky looked great and Spencer Knight struggled but it seems like that has reversed now. Knight will get the start for the Panthers tonight. The Preds are playing great lately too with four wins in their last five games and an 11-5 record in their last 16 games. They currently sit in the first Wild Card card spot in the West with a 41-25-4 record, two points and a game in hand over the Stars and four points and two games in hand over the Golden Knights. They’ve averaged 3.3 goals per game on the season, eighth most in the NHL and they’ve allowed an average of 2.87 goals per game, twelfth most in the NHL. Juuse Saros is one of the top goalies in the NHL with a 2.55 GAA and .921 save percentage this season. The first time these teams played this season, the Preds won 6-4 in Florida on February 22nd. I’d think Florida wins this one to keep the win streak going and will take them for a unit. I love the over, expecting both teams to score a solid amount of goals and will take it for 2 units, even at 7.
Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens (7:00)
On paper this game looks like a huge mismatch. The Leafs are 46-18-6 and have played great hockey lately, coming off a 4-3 overtime win in Dallas on Thursday night and have a 6-0-1 record in their last seven games. Toronto has the second highest scoring offense in the league, averaging 3.83 goals per game. They have sucked defensively and have gotten some of the worst goaltending in the NHL in the second half of the season, allowing an average of 3.07 goals per game on the year. Rookie Erik Kallgren’s starting in goal tonight and has a 2.9 GAA and .902 save percentage in his seven starts. The Habs are the worst team in the NHL standings this season with a 20-40-11 record but are coming off a high scoring 7-4 win in New Jersey on Thursday night. The Canadiens have scored the sixth fewest goals in the NHL, an average of 2.61 per game and they’ve allowed the most goals in hockey, an average of 3.8 per game. Montreal’s somehow 2-1 against their rival Leafs this season despite them being so far apart in talent and the standings. Toronto won the first game between these teams this season 2-1 on October 13th in the first week of the season and then the Habs won 5-2 at home on February 21st and against at home 4-2 on March 26th. Toronto should easily win this game at home tonight, but no way are they worth betting on at -375. Even the -240 regulation line and -157 puck lines aren’t worth it. I like the over here, expecting the Leafs to score at ease but also expect them to give up a few goals and I’ll take it for a unit. I’ll also go with a half unit each on the Habs TT over 2.5 and Habs +2.5.
Red Wings vs. Blue Jackets (7:00)
Both of these teams blow. The Red Wings are 28-34-9 and they’re coming off back to back wins on Tuesday and Wednesday against the Bruins (5-3) and Jets (3-1) after they went on a six game losing streak with just two wins in their previous 15 games. Detroit has been better at home, where they’re 18-13-6. They’ve scored an average of just 2.85 goals per game, twelfth fewest in the NHL and they’ve been even worse on the back end, allowing an average of 3.8 goals per game, tied with Montreal for most in the league. The Blue Jackets have been horrible lately too. They’re 33-33-6 and they only have one win in their last nine games. They’ve only been slightly better defensively than the Red Wings, allowing an average of 3.71 goals per game, fourth most in the NHL. Their offense has been decent though, averaging 3.14 goals per game. These teams split their two previous games this season, with the home team winning both games. Detroit won 4-1 on October 19th and Columbus won 5-3 on November 15th. I think the Jackets are the better overall team but I have no interest in betting a side on this game. I do like the over though, which I’ll take for a unit with both of these teams just bleeding away goals since their defenses and goaltending suck.
Rangers vs. Senators (7:00)
I don’t expect this to be a very entertaining game to watch. The Rangers are having a great season in second place in the Metropolitan Division with a 46-20-6 record, just two points behind the Hurricanes. They’re coming off a 3-0 shutout win at home against the Penguins on Thursday night and they have a 10-3-1 record in their last 14 games. Igor Shesterkin’s easily the best goalie in the NHL this year and guaranteed to win the Vezina with a 2.10 GAA and .935 save percentage and he’s projected to start tonight. With Igor’s top notch play in goal, the Rangers have allowed an average of just 2.54 goals per game, third fewest in the NHL. The Rags have just averaged 3 goals per game but with that good of defense and goaltending, it doesn’t really matter as they keep grinding out wins. The Senators have three wins in their last four games (against Detroit twice and the Habs) but they’ve sucked this season with a 26-38-6 record and just seven wins in their last 20 games. Ottawa’s been pretty bad on both ends of the ice this year. They’re averaging just 2.69 goals per game, seventh fewest in the NHL and allowing an average of 3.21 goals per game, tenth most in the NHL. The Rangers are 2-0 against the Sens this year in both their games they played in Ottawa, with a 3-2 win on October 23rd and a 2-1 win on February 20th. I’d expect that they end up sweeping them with a win tonight at home. I’ll go with the Rangers in regulation for a unit, the under 6.5 for half a unit and the Sens TT under 2.5 in regulation.
Kraken vs. Flames (7:00)
This is a huge Pacific Division mismatch to me in Seattle tonight, but the price isn’t nearly as expensive as I thought it would be. The Calgary Flames are the best team in the Pacific with a 43-19-9 record and come into tonight’s game on a three game win streak on their California road trip. They’ve been very good on both ends of the ice. Defensively they’ve allowed the second fewest goals in the NHL, an average of just 2.48 goals per game. Jacob Markstrom’s having one of the best seasons of his career and has been one of the best goalies in the league this year with a 2.18 GAA, a .924 save percentage and 9 shutouts. The Flames offense has been very good too, averaging 3.48 goals per game, sixth most in the NHL. The Kraken are coming off a 2-0 shutout win in Chicago on Thursday but this has been a terrible inaugural season for them. They’re 23-42-6 and have only 7 wins in their last 28 games. They’ve scored just an average of 2.58 goals per game, second fewest in the NHL and have allowed a ninth most in the NHL average of 3.45 goals per game. The Flames are 2-0 against Seattle, with a 6-4 win in Seattle on December 30th and a 2-1 win at home on February 19th. I’d expect Calgary to get another win against the Kraken tonight and I’ll go with 1.5 units on the Flames in regulation and half a unit on the Kraken TT under 2.5 in regulation.
Flyers vs. Ducks (7:30)
What a boring matchup this is between two lousy teams. The Ducks started the season very well but they’ve sucked since then and only have one win in their last 14 games, the worst stretch in the NHL in that time as they’ve dropped to 28-32-12 on the season. They have scored just an average of 2.74 goals per game, eighth fewest in the NHL and they’ve allowed an average of 3.18 goals per game, eleventh most in the NHL. The Flyers are coming off a 4-1 win in Columbus on Thursday and have two wins in their last three games but they suck too. They’ve got a 23-37-11 record and just those two wins in their last seven games. Philly’s even shittier than Anaheim on both ends of the ice. They’re averaging only 2.59 goals per game, third fewest in the NHL and they’re allowing an average of 3.48 goals per game, seventh most in the NHL. Both backups, Anthony Stolarz for the Ducks and Martin Jones for the Flyers are confirmed in goal tonight to make this game even lousier. When these teams played in Anaheim on January 4th, the Ducks won 4-1. I’d slightly lean the Ducks win this game on the road and would slightly lean the over, but neither enough to bet on, so I’ll just skip this game completely.
Blues vs. Islanders (8:00)
Both of these teams have played great hockey lately. The Blues are on a four game win streak and have a 6-0-1 record in their last seven games. They’re currently in third place in the Central Division, tied with Minnesota in points with a 41-20-10 record on the season. St. Louis has the fourth highest scoring offense in the NHL, averaging 3.61 goals per game and they’ve allowed an average of 2.86 goals per game, eleventh fewest in the NHL. Ville Husso’s getting the night off for the first time in eight games with Jordan Binnington confirmed in goal tonight. Bin Nasty hasn’t been great with a lousy 3.25 GAA and .899 save percentage. The Islanders have played easily their best hockey of the season in the last month with a 12-4-1 record in their last 17 games to improve to 33-28-9 on the season. Too little too late for them though as they’re still 13 points behind the Caps for the last Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference. The Isles have been very good defensively, allowing an average of 2.63 goals per game, fifth fewest in the NHL. They’ve struggled on offense this year, the main reason for their poor start, averaging 2.76 goals per game, tenth fewest in the NHL. Recently, they have averaged 3.42 goals per game in their last six. When these teams played on Long Island on March 5th, the Isles won 2-1. I’d slightly lean the opposite result with the Blues winning at home and the over tonight, but neither enough to bet on for what I’d essentially consider a coin flip game on the side and the total.
Oilers vs. Avalanche (10:00)
These two likely playoff teams in the West have been playing awesome recently, both coming into tonight’s game on big win streak. The Avalanche have already clinched their spot in the playoffs and pretty much have the first overall seed in the West locked up with a 51-14-6 record. They’re on a five game win streak with a 10-1-1 record in their last twelve games. Colorado has the third highest scoring offense in the NHL, averaging 3.8 goals per game and they’re quite good defensively as well, allowing an eighth fewest in the NHL average of 2.76 goals per game. Darcy Kuemper’s been very good in goal, especially lately and on the season he has a 2.4 GAA and .925 save percentage. The Oilers are playing their best hockey of the season on a six game win streak with a 12-2-1 record in their last 15 games to improve to 42-25-5 and now sit in second place in the Pacific Division. Connor McDavid (108 points, 66 assists) and Leon Draisaitl (103 points, 50 goals) are two of the league leaders on offense and with their play, even with the lack of scoring depth on the Oilers, Edmonton is averaging 3.47 goals per game, seventh most in the NHL. The Oilers have allowed an average of 3.17 goals per game, twelfth most in the NHL. The first time these teams played this season in Colorado on March 21st, the Avs won 3-2 in overtime. I think they win again here since they’re the better and more well rounded team and I’ll take both the Avs ML and the over in this game for half a unit each.
Canucks vs. Sharks (10:00)
The Sharks are playing horrible hockey right now, coming into tonight’s game on a five game losing streak to drop to 29-32-9 on the season. They’ve only scored an average of 2.6 goals per game, fifth fewest in the NHL and have allowed a twelfth most in the NHL average of 3.17 goals per game. The Canucks have struggled a good amount lately, with just five wins in their last 14 games but come into tonight’s game off back to back 5-1 wins against the Coyotes and Golden Knights on Thursday and Wednesday. They’ve been pretty streaky and have a 34-28-10 record on the season. Vancouver has been pretty solid defensively, allowing an average of 2.79 goals per game, ninth fewest in the NHL. They’ve had issues scoring at times and on the season have averaged 2.85 goals per game on the year, twelfth fewest in the NHL. The Canucks won both games they played on the road in San Jose this year, winning 5-2 on December 16th and 5-4 in overtime on February 17th. I’d expect them to make it three in a row with a win tonight. I’ll go with the Canucks ML for a unit in this game and the over for half a unit.
Golden Knights vs. Coyotes (10:00)
The Golden Knights are on the outside looking in on the Western Conference playoff picture, two points out from the Stars (and four points out from Nashville) for the second Wild Card spot. They’re 39-29-4 on the season and definitely had their issues this season at times with all their injuries and they are obviously missing having Mark Stone in the lineup, who they can’t activate till the playoffs if they make it in. I do think if they get in though, they’re not a team that Colorado wants to face in the first round and I think they’re the only team that realistically has a chance to knocking off the Avs in the first round. The Knights are coming off a 5-1 loss at home to the Canucks on Wednesday night (loss for me) but they’ve played great lately, on a five game win streak before those that loss to Vancouver. On the season, they’ve averaged 3.11 goals per game and have allowed an average of 2.97 goals per game. The Yotes are one of the worst teams in the NHL with a 22-44-5 record with only two wins in their last eleven games. They are also coming off a 5-1 loss to the Canucks, Thursday, the day after the Canucks beat Vegas 5-1. A lot of the key players on their team are injured and I’d expect them to keep tanking to end this season. The Coyotes have the lowest scoring offense in the NHL, averaging just 2.49 goals per game and they’ve allowed an average of 3.59 goals per game, fifth most in the NHL. These teams split their two previous games this season in Arizona with a 7-1 win for the Golden Knights on December 3rd and a 3-1 Yotes win on February 25th. Vegas should easily win this game tonight at home in the Fortress, but no one in their right mind should ever lay the -420 on the ML in this game, especially with how inconsistent the Knights have been at times. I’ll go with 1.5 units on the Golden Knights TT over 3.5.
1u Stars in regulation (-155)
1u Penguins/Capitals over 6 (-108)
1u Florida ML (-125)
2u Florida/Nashville over 7 (-110)
1u Leafs/Canadiens over 7 (-105)
.5u Canadiens TT over 2.5 (+105)
.5u Canadiens +2.5 (-125)
1u Blue Jackets/Red Wings over 6.5 (-117)
1u Rangers in regulation (-148)
.5u Rangers/Senators under 6.5 (-126)
.5u Senators TT under 2.5 in regulation (-148)
1.5u Flames in regulation (-143)
.5u Kraken TT under 2.5 in regulation (-158)
.5u Avalanche ML (-110)
.5u Avalanche/Oilers over 6.5 (-110)
1u Canucks ML (-150)
.5u Canucks/Sharks over 5.5 (-120)
1.5u Golden Knights TT over 3.5 (-180)
Record: 688-502-28 (+16.09 units)
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