NHL Daily Gambling Preview – 4/12/22

Yesterday with only one lousy game between the Jets and Habs, I went 1-1 to lose 0.64 units, a goal short of sweeping it. Oh well. After just that one game yesterday, we have an insanely huge 14 game slate tonight since the NHL blows at scheduling. Let’s crush all these games!

Maple Leafs vs. Sabres (7:00)

The Sabres played a very disappoint game Saturday in Tampa, as they got outplayed in every facet of the game losing 5-0 to the Lightning for their third loss in a row. Buffalo’s 26-37-11 and although they’re on a three game losing streak with just three wins in their last ten games, they have played their best hockey of the season in the past month and have shown great signs for the future. In their last 16 games, they have an 8-5-3 record. On the season, they have averaged 2.7 goals per game, eighth fewest in the NHL but they’ve been able to score a decent enough amount lately, averaging 3.27 goals per game in their last eleven games. They have not been good defensively and goaltending is definitely the biggest thing they have to address this coming offseason as they’ve allowed an average of 3.53 goals per game, sixth most in the NHL. First overall pick from the 2021 draft, Owen Power will make his NHL debut tonight for the Sabres, fresh off Michigan’s Frozen Four loss. The Leafs are on tear lately with a 7-0-1 record in their last eight games to improve to 47-19-6 on the season and they clinched their spot in the playoffs, currently in second place in the East. I expect them to likely lose in the first round because although they have a great offense, their defense and goaltending has not been good. Toronto has the second highest scoring offense in the NHL, averaging 3.82 goals per game. They have had some of the worst goaltending in the league in the second half of the season though and are allowing an average of 3.06 goals per game. Rookie Erik Kallgren is confirmed in goal and has a 2.78 GAA and .904 save percentage in his eight starts this season. The Sabres have played really well against Toronto this season and they’re 2-1 this year against the Leafs, losing 5-4 at home on November 13th then winning 5-1 in Toronto on March 2nd and 5-2 outdoors at the Heritage Classic in Hamilton on March 13th. Although the Leafs should win this game, the price on this game I think is way off.  The Sabres have played well against Toronto this season and although they might not win, I think they’re worth backing again here. I’ll go with the Sabres +2.5 for a unit, +1.5 for half a unit, the ML for half a unit, the regulation line for .2 of a unit and .1 on the Sabres -1.5. I like the over a lot as well too, expecting both teams to score and will take the 6.5 for a unit. Let’s Go Buffalo!!!

Bruins vs. Blues (7:00)

These two teams who met in the 2019 Stanley Cup Finals where the Blues ultimately played Gloria! as they lifted Lord Stanley in seven games meet tonight for the first time this season. They both currently are in playoff spots and although neither have clinched yet, I wouldn’t expect either of them to miss it as they’ve both played great lately. The Bruins are coming off a disappoint 4-2 loss in Washington on Sunday (I split that one, losing on the B’s, winning on the over) and have just one win in their last three games but they’ve been one of the hottest teams in the NHL the past few months with an 18-5-1 record in their last 24 games. They’re 42-22-5 on the season and are currently in the first Wild Card spot in the East, a point back from Tampa for third place in the Atlantic. Their defense and goaltending has been fantastic, allowing an average of 2.68 goals per game, fourth fewest in the NHL. Offensively, they’re averaging 3.13 goals per game on the year, but they’ve been scoring with ease lately, scoring an average of 4.13 goals per game in their last eight. The Blues are on a great run of their own, coming into tonight’s game on a five game win streak with a 7-0-1 record in their last eight games, coming off a 6-1 blowout against the Islanders on Saturday night. They are 42-20-10 on the season, currently in third place in the Central and tied in points with their likely first round opponent Minnesota Wild. St. Louis has been really solid on both ends of the ice this year. They’re averaging 3.64 goals per game, fourth most in the NHL and they’re allowing an average of just 2.83 goals per game, eleventh fewest in the NHL. Ville Husso is confirmed in goal tonight and has had a good season with a 2.38 GAA and .924 save percentage. I’d expect this to be a pretty close game but the Bruins should be able to win this one at home. I’ll take the Bruins moneyline for half a unit. I’d lean the under as well but not enough to bet on it.

Panthers vs. Ducks (7:00)

Florida’s one of the best teams in the NHL. They lead the Eastern Conference with a 51-15-6 record and they’re coming into today’s game on a seven game win streak with a 16-2-1 record in their last 19 games. They have the highest scoring offense in the NHL, averaging an impressive 4.15 goals per game. Defensively, the Panthers have allowed an average of 2.92 goals per game. Sergei Bobrovsky, who’s had a decent season with a 2.72 GAA and .911 save percentage is confirmed in goal tonight. He has struggled a bit lately though, getting pulled several times in the last few weeks for Spencer Knight. After their decent start to the season, the Ducks have come crashing down. They’re 29-33-12 and they have only two wins (in Philly and Arizona) in their last 16 games. Anaheim has scored an average of only 2.76 goals per game, tenth fewest in the NHL and allowing an average of 3.2 goals per game, eleventh most in the NHL. When these teams played on March 18th in Anaheim, the Panthers cruised to an easy 3-0 shutout win. I’d expect a similar result tonight with how big of a mismatch this game is. The -420 moneyline is way too expensive to me in this game. I’ll go with a unit on the still expensive regulation line on Florida and a unit on Florida TT over 4. I’d lean the over here, but not enough to bet on it and have to probably rely on the Ducks to score a few goals.

Rangers vs. Hurricanes (7:00)

This should be a great game that could end up deciding the winner of the Metropolitan Division between these two teams who have clinched spots in the playoffs. Carolina currently leads the Metro by two points over the Rangers right now with a 47-18-8 record. They’re coming off a 5-2 win against the Ducks on Sunday but they haven’t been overly impressive lately with just six wins in their last 15 games. The Hurricanes have allowed the fewest goals in the NHL, an average of just 2.37 goals per game. Freddy Andersen’s having a great season with a 2.07 GAA and .925 save percentage. Their offense has been good as well, averaging 3.32 goals per game, eighth most in the NHL. The Rangers are just two points back from the Canes in second place in the Metro with a 47-20-6 record. They’ve played great lately, on a three game win streak with an 11-3-1 record in their last 15 games. The Rags have been incredible defensively as well, allowing a third fewest in the NHL average of only 2.52 goals per game. Igor Shesterkin, who’s projected to start tonight is clearly the best goalie in the league this season and guaranteed to win the Vezina with a 2.07 GAA and .935 save percentage. On the season, they’ve averaged 3.03 goals per game but they’ve generated a lot more offensive chances since the trade deadline. A good trend for them going into the playoffs. I’d lean the Rangers win this game as a home dog tonight but don’t really see any value in betting on what that I expect to be a close grind of a game. I think this one ends up being low scoring and will take the under 6 for a unit.

Capitals vs. Flyers (7:00)

The Caps have played great lately and are on a three game win streak coming off a big 4-2 win against the Bruins on Sunday afternoon. They’re 40-22-10 on the season with a 12-4-1 record in their last 17 games and are currently in the second Wild Card spot in the East, comfortably 15 points ahead of the Islanders. Washington’s been pretty good on both ends of the ice all season. They’re averaging 3.26 goals per game, tenth most in the NHL and allowing an average of just 2.89 goals per game, twelfth fewest in the NHL. On the other hand, the Flyers have had a horrible season. They’re 23-38-11 and have just two wins in their last eight games. They have one of the worst offenses in the league, averaging only 2.6 goals per game, fifth fewest in the NHL and they’re not much better defensively, allowing an eighth most in the NHL average of 3.5 goals per game. Somehow the Flyers are 2-1 this year against the Caps with a 2-1 win in Washington on November 6th, a 5-3 loss at home on February 17th and a 2-1 win again at home on February 26th. The Capitals are the way better team here and should win tonight at home. I’ll go with a unit on the Caps in regulation and a half unit each on the Caps TT over 3.5 (full game) and the Flyers TT under 2.5 in regulation. I’d lean the under but not enough to bet on it.

Red Wings vs. Senators (7:30)

Both of these Atlantic Division teams blow. The Red Wings are 28-34-10 on the season. They have a 2-0-1 record in their last three games but only four wins in their last 18 games. Detroit has allowed the most goals in the NHL this season, an average of 3.82 goals per game and they’re scoring an average of 2.86 goals per game, twelfth fewest in the NHL. The Senators are even worse with a 26-40-6 record, coming into tonight’s game on a three game losing streak. They’re scoring even less than the Red Wings, averaging 2.67 goals per game, seventh fewest in the NHL and they’re allowing an average of 3.25 goals per game, tenth most in the NHL. These lousy teams played twice already this month in a home and home on April 1st and April 3rd, with the Senators winning both of those games 5-2. I’d lean the Red Wings to win this game at home and would lean the over as well, but don’t see any value in betting it. I will take a small 0.1 unit shot at the exact score of Sens 5-2. 

Islanders vs. Penguins (7:30)

The Penguins got a 3-2 win in overtime at home against the Predators on Saturday afternoon with an awesome game winner from Sidney Crosby (loss for me on the over). That win ended Pittsburgh’s four game losing streak. They are 41-22-10 on the season and in third place in the Metropolitan Division. They’re pretty much guaranteed in the playoffs and at this point just playing for seeding. The Pens haven’t played great lately with just three wins in their last ten games but on the season they’ve been good on both ends of the ice. They’re averaging 3.24 goals per game, twelfth most in the NHL and they’re allowing an average of 2.69 goals per game, sixth fewest in the NHL. Tonight they’ll be starting their backup in goal, Casey DeSmith. DeSmith hasn’t been great with a 2.89 GAA and .907 save percentage. The Pens will also be without Evgeni Malkin, who’s suspended for the next four games for his cross check in Sunday’s game against the Preds. The Islanders are coming off a 6-1 blowout loss on Saturday in St. Louis but they’re playing their best hockey of the season lately with a 12-5-1 record in their last 18 games. They’re 33-29-9 and their real lousy start to the season put them way too behind to have a shot at the playoffs as they’re 15 points out from the Capitals with just eleven games remaining. The Isles have been great defensively, allowing an average of just 2.68 goals per game, fourth fewest in the NHL. Ilya Sorokin’s likely to start in goal for them tonight and has played great this season with a 2.27 GAA, .927 save percentage and six shutouts. The Islanders offense sucks this year, which is what put them so far back in the first half of the season. On the season, they’re averaging just 2.73 goals per game, ninth fewest in the NHL but they’ve been scoring a decent amount lately, averaging 3.07 goals per game in their last seven games. The first time these teams played this season on November 26th, the Penguins won a low scoring 1-0 shutout on Long Island. I don’t really expect that to happen again tonight. I’d slightly lean the Isles here but not enough to bet on it. If Tristan Jarry was starting for the Penguins in goal tonight, I’d be all over the under but with DeSmith starting instead, I’d rather lay off this. I’ll just skip this game entirely from a betting standpoint but it has the potential to be a great one to watch. 

Wild vs. Oilers (8:00)

These two teams playoff teams in the West have played fantastic lately. The Minnesota Wild are coming off a 6-3 win against the Kings on Sunday where they came back from down 3-0 in the first period. They’re 44-21-6 on the season with a 25-7-2 record at home and they’re currently in second place in the Central Division, tied in points with the Blues. The Wild have played great in the past month, fixing their issues on the back end and they have a 10-1-2 record in their last 13 games. They have the fifth highest scoring offense in hockey, averaging 3.63 goals per game and on the season, they have allowed an average of 3.07 goals per game. Their defense and the goaltending duo of Talbot and Fleury have played much better lately and in their last 13 games, they’ve allowed an average of just 2.23 goals per game. The Oilers are 42-25-6 and have played great lately with a 12-2-2 record in their last 16 games, coming off a 2-1 shootout loss to the Avs at home on Saturday. Connor McDavid leads the NHL in scoring with 108 points and 66 assists and Leon Draisaitl isn’t far behind him with 101 points and 50 goals. Even with the Oilers lack of depth behind those two guys, Edmonton’s got the seventh highest scoring offense in hockey, averaging 3.44 goals per game. They’ve allowed an average of 3.14 goals per game on the season but like the Wild have, they’ve showed good signs on the back end lately, allowing an average of just 1.5 goals per game. The Wild won both games these teams played in Edmonton earlier this season with a 4-1 win on December 7th and a 7-3 win on February 20th. Minnesota’s the better, more well rounded team and they should win again tonight at home. I’ll go with a half unit on the Wild ML. I’d slightly lean the over, but not enough to bet on it in this matchup.

Predators vs. Sharks (8:00)

The Preds are coming off back to back losses to the Penguins (3-2 in overtime) on Sunday and Florida (4-1) on Saturday but they’ve played well lately with an 11-6-1 record in their last 18 games. They’re 41-26-5 on the season and are in the first Wild Card spot in the tight Western Conference with a one point lead over the Stars and three point lead over the Knights. Nashville has averaged 3.25 goals per game, eleventh most in the NHL and they’ve allowed an average of 2.89 goals per game, twelfth fewest in the NHL. Juuse Saros is great in goal with a 2.55 GAA and .921 save percentage. The Sharks are playing some of the worst hockey in the NHL in the second half of the season and after their 4-2 loss in Vancouver on Saturday, they are on a six game losing streak. They only have seven wins in their last 28 games to drop to 29-33-9 on the season. This team sucks on both ends of the ice, averaging 2.59 goals per game, third fewest in the NHL and they’re allowing a twelfth most in the NHL average of 3.18 goals per game. The Preds are 2-0 against San Jose this season with a 3-1 win at home on October 26th and an 8-0 blowout on the road on March 5th. I’d expect them to end up sweeping the Sharks on the season with a win at home in Smashville tonight. I’m loading up on this game with a unit on the Preds in regulation, a unit on the Preds TT over 3 and half a unit on the Preds puck line. I’d lean the over in this game but not enough to bet on it.

Blackhawks vs. Kings (8:30)

The Blackhawks blow and they’re in full blown tank mode with a 24-37-11 record. They’re coming into tonight’s game on a seven game losing streak with just nine wins in their last 39 games. They’ve been horrible on both ends of the ice, averaging just 2.61 goals per game, sixth fewest in the NHL and allowing an average of 3.51 goals per game, seventh most in the NHL. Collin Delia’s starting in goal for them tonight who blows with a 3.88 GAA and .902 save percentage in his three starts this season. The Kings are on a three game losing streak and have struggled a bit lately with just two wins in their last seven games. They’re 38-26-10 and in third place in the Pacific Division with the Golden Knights hot on their tail, just two points back in the tight Western Conference playoff race. LA has played very well defensively, allowing an average of 2.8 goals per game, tenth fewest in the NHL. They haven’t been great offensively though, averaging 2.78 goals per game, eleventh fewest in the NHL. A few weeks ago when these teams playing in LA on March 24th, the Blackhawks outlasted the Kings to win 4-3 in a shootout. The Kings are the clearly better team though and to me this is a solid get right spot for them to get a win on the road and get their revenge for that loss. I’ll go with the Kings ML for a unit.

Flames vs. Kraken (9:00)

This is another huge mismatch on tonight’s slate in the second half of a home and home between these two Pacific Division teams. Calgary leads the Pacific Division with a 44-19-9 record and come into tonight’s game on a four game win streak. They have been one of the best teams in the NHL on both ends of the ice. They’ve allowed the second fewest goals in the NHL, an average of just 2.46 goals per game. Jacob Markstrom’s had one of the best seasons a goalie has put up this year with a 2.16 GAA, .925 save percentage and 9 shutouts this season. The Flames have been great offensively as well, averaging 3.49 goals per game, sixth most in the NHL. The Kraken have had a terrible inaugural season at 23-43-6. They’ve scored just the second fewest goals in hockey, an average of just 2.56 goals per game and they’ve allowed an average of 3.46 goals per game, ninth most in the league. Calgary’s 3-0 against Seattle with a 6-4 win in Seattle on December 30th, a 2-1 win at home on February 19th and a 4-1 win on Saturday on the road. The Flames are the way better team in this game and should win easily again tonight but the prices on this game are ridiculous with the -450 ML where even the regulation line (-240) and puck line (-140) aren’t worth it to me. I’ll go with a unit each on the Flames TT over 3.5 by itself along with a SGP of the Flames TT over 3.5 with the Kraken TT under 2.5.

Stars vs. Lightning (9:30)

These two teams faced off in the bubble for the 2020 Stanley Cup Finals when the Bolts won the first of their back to back Cups the last two years and they’re both looking to get in again this season. The Lightning are coming off a dominant 5-0 win at home against the Sabres on Saturday afternoon that ended their four game losing streak. They are 44-20-8 and currently have a one point lead over the Bruins for the third place spot in the Atlantic Division but they pretty much have a playoff spot locked up in the East and are essentially just playing for seeding now. They’ve scored an average of 3.29 goals per game, ninth most in the NHL and they’ve allowed an average of 2.76 goals per game, eighth fewest in the league. Andrei Vasilevskiy’s a phenomenal goalie with a 2.45 GAA and .917 save percentage and he’s confirmed in goal tonight. The Stars are in the heat of the tight Western Conference playoff race, currently in the second Wild Card spot with a two point lead over the Golden Knights and a point behind the Preds. They’re 41-27-4 on the season and have played well lately with an 8-3-1 record in their last 12 games, coming off a 6-4 win in Chicago on Sunday afternoon (winner for me). They’ve played better at home than on the road, with a 22-10-2 record in American Airlines Center this year. They play kind of boring hockey though that I think ends up getting them bounced in the first round if they find a way in. They’re averaging 2.92 goals per game and are allowing an average of 2.99 goals per game. When these teams played in Tampa on January 15th, the Lightning won 3-1. I’d lean the Bolts win this game on the road here tonight and I’ll take them for half a unit. I’d also lean the under, but not enough to bet on it.

Canucks vs. Golden Knights (10:00)

Things weren’t looking great for the Golden Knights for a while, but the Knights have played great lately, coming off a 6-1 blowout win at home against the Coyotes on Saturday (easy winner) and they have six wins in their last seven games. Vegas is 40-29-4 on the season and right now they’re on the outside looking in on a playoff spot, two points behind the Stars for the second Wild Card spot and two points behind the Kings for the third spot in the Pacific. On the season, they haven’t been particularly great this season as they’ve averaged 3.15 goals per game and have allowed an average of 2.95 goals per game. Somehow Vegas has found a way to shockingly manipulate their ridiculous cap situation and today Pete DeBoer called Mark Stone a game time decision to be re-activated for tonight’s game. I can’t believe they’ll be able to do so, but Kelly McCrimmon seems to have found a way to do it, which is great for the Knights to make this last playoff push instead of being forced to wait till they possibly got in and do what the Lightning did the last two years with Kucherov. Stone’s the best player on the Golden Knights and they’ve struggled at times this season without him so to activate him before the playoffs along with seeing him on the ice along with Jack Eichel for the first time isn’t something other teams are going to want to play against. I think if the Knights get into the playoffs, they’re likely the only team in the NHL that can give the Avs a series and possibly even knock them off in the first round from that likely second Wild Card spot if that’s where they end up. The Canucks are on a three game win streak of their own after going on a lousy run of just two wins in their prior nine games. This team sucked to start the season and although they’ve had their success in the second half after hiring Bruce Boudreau, they’re like going to miss the playoffs. Vancouver’s struggled offensively, scoring an average of 2.86 goals per game, twelfth fewest in the NHL but they’ve been good defensively, allowing an average of just 2.78 goals per game, ninth fewest in the NHL. Thatcher Demko’s projected to start tonight and has been pretty decent this season with a 2.64 GAA and .917 save percentage. Vegas is 2-1 this season against the Canucks with a 7-4 win at home on November 13th, a 3-2 overtime win in Vancouver on April 3rd and then the Canucks beat them 5-1 last Wednesday in Vegas. I think Vegas stays hot and gets a win on the road tonight to answer back from that loss last week and get those two very important points. I’ll take the Golden Knights ML for a unit. I’d lean the over but not enough to bet on it.

Coyotes vs. Devils (10:00)

This is a pretty shitty game to end tonight’s slate. The Yotes are one of the worst teams in the NHL this season with a 22-45-5 record and they’re a guaranteed lottery team. Arizona has scored the fewest goals in the NHL, an average of 2.47 goals per game and they’ve allowed an average of 3.63 goals per game, fifth most in the NHL. The Devils are coming off a 3-1 win in Dallas on Saturday, where they scored two goals just ten seconds apart in the final 1:21 of the game. That game ended their five game losing streak but this team’s been horrible lately with just three wins in their last 13 games and a 25-41-6 record on the season. They haven’t been horrible offensively, averaging 3.03 goals per game. New Jersey has been even worse defensively though than the Coyotes have been, allowing a fourth most in the NHL average of 3.68 goals per game. The first time these teams played this season in New Jersey, the Coyotes got a 4-1 win on January 19th. I’d lean the Devils win this game tonight on the road, but I have zero interest in betting this game and I’ll skip it completely. 

Game Bets

1u Sabres +2.5 (-110)

.5u Sabres +1.5 (+158)

.5u Sabres ML (+390)

.2u Sabres in regulation (+600)

.1u Sabres -1.5 (+700)

1u Sabres/Leafs over 6.5 (-152)

.5u Bruins ML (-150)

1u Florida in regulation (-250)

1u Florida TT over 4 (-155)

1u Rangers/Hurricanes under 6 (-137)

1u Capitals in regulation (-150)

.5u Capitals TT over 3.5 (-140)

.5u Flyers TT under 2.5 in regulation (-140)

.1u Exact score: Senators 5-2 (+2500)

.5u Wild ML (-125)

1u Predators in regulation (-120)

1u Predators TT over 3 (-186)

.5u Predators -1.5 (+120)

1u Kings ML (-145)

1u Flames TT over 3.5 (-160)

1u SGP: Flames TT over 3.5 & Kraken TT under 2.5 (+135)

.5u Lightning ML (-160)

1u Golden Knights ML (-137)

Record: 707-518-28 (+15.61 units)


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