RBC Heritage – Gambling/DFS Preview 2022

Harbour Town Golf Links – Hilton Head, SC

Course Breakdown

Par 71, Pete Dye designed course, 7099 yards (short for a PGA course), 4 par 3s are all between 192-200 yds, 3 par 5s (2 are reachable by most), thick tight tree lined course that really rewards driving accuracy and positioning off the tee (has to target specific parts of the fairway to set up approach shots), plotters course that handcuffs bombers a bit, overhanging trees so accuracy is important everywhere on the course, Bermuda fairways, easier than average fairways to hit (~66%), less than driver course with shortest drives on tour the last three seasons with a lot of forced layups (267 yds vs. tour average 283 yds), driving distance does not matter here, bunkers and water hazards are in play if you miss wildly off the tee, very tough greens to hit (~57%), smallest greens on tour, well-guarded Bermuda greens, slower than average green speeds with not many slopes or undulations, bunkers and overhanging trees guarding most greens and water around a few greens as well, it could get very windy and the swirling wind could play a big factor

Tournament Notes

  • Course history seems to be more important than current form here
  • SG: Approach here is twice as important as ATG and OTT on T10 finishes and about 3x as important on T5 finishes
  • Before 2019, the last 6 winners prior have been trailing by at least 3 strokes after 54 holes (CT Pan trailed 2 strokes in 2019 going into the final round, Webb Simpson was in a 4 way tie for first in 2020, last year Stewart Cink set a 54 hole tournament record and was in solo 1st)
  • Only 4 54 hole leaders have won in the last 12 years (Webb in 2020 was in a 4 way tie for T1 after 54 holes, with Ancer, Hatton and Palmer)
  • In 2019, 11 of the T15 in approach came T16 or better. In 2020, 7 of the T11 in approach came T8 or better. Last year, 8 of the T10 in approach came T13 or better

Key Stats

Approach, SG: ARG, Ballstriking

Main proximity distance range on approach: 175-200 yds (24.7%), 150-175 yds (23.1%)

Corollary Courses

Pete Dye courses: TPC Sawgrass (The Players), TPC River Highlands (Travelers Championship), TPC Louisiana (Zurich Classic), Austin Country Club (Dell Match Play), PGA West Stadium Course (CareerBuilder Challenge)

Field

131 golfers – Arguably the best field strength this tournament has ever had besides 2020 when it was the second event out of the COVID break and all the best players in the world played

Defending Champion: Stewart Cink (-19)

Runner Up Last Year: Emiliano Grillo, Harold Varner III (-15)

One and Done: Shane Lowry

One and Done Considerations: Cam Smith, Daniel Berger, Shane Lowry

Players

Cam Smith: 10800: +1600 – 9,MC,MC,32,29,15 finishes here the last six years, coming off 3rd place finish at The Masters and win at The Players in his last two events, 7th in approach, 23rd in ballstriking, 12th in SG: T2G, 99th in good drives, 4th in Par 4 scoring, 16th in Par 3 scoring 175-200 yds, 2nd in Par 5 scoring, 33rd in proximity 175-200 yds, 4th in proximity 150-175 yds, 19th in SG: ARG, 3rd in putting, 9th in opportunities gained, 1st in birdie+ gained, 3rd in DK pts

Shane Lowry: 9800: +2000 – 9,MC,3,44 finishes his four times here, 3rd at The Masters last week and 12,13 (at THE PLAYERS),2 finishes in his three events before that, 3rd in approach, 15th in ballstriking, 15th in SG: T2G, 25th in good drives, 2nd in Par 4 scoring, 19th in Par 3 scoring 175-200 yds, 33rd in Par 5 scoring, 2nd in proximity 175-200 yds, 12th in proximity 150-175 yds, 43rd in SG: ARG, 43rd in putting, 7th in opportunities gained, 21st in birdie+ gained, 12th in DK pts

Daniel Berger: 9600: +2800 – Seems like he’s a perfect fit for this course, 13,3,33,72 finishes his four times here (last 3 years and 2015), 50,13,4,MC,20 finishes his last 5 events, 2nd in approach, 3rd in ballstriking, 3rd in SG: T2G, 13th in good drives, 5th in Par 4 scoring, 62nd in Par 3 scoring 175-200 yds, 65th in Par 5 scoring, 65th in proximity 175-200 yds, 42nd in proximity 150-175 yds, 14th in SG: ARG, 82nd in putting, 49th in opportunities gained, 36th in birdie+ gained, 34th in DK pts

Russell Henley: 9000: +3300 – Has 4 MCs in his 8 times here but 9th last year, 26th in 2017, 23rd in 2016 and 6th in 2013 here, so there’s good results mixed in with the missed cuts, 30,13,13,33,33,14,2 his last 7 events, 1st in approach, 7th in ballstriking, 4th in SG: T2G, 14th in good drives, 8th in Par 4 scoring, 70th in Par 3 scoring 175-200 yds, 6th in Par 5 scoring, 80th in proximity 175-200 yds, 6th in proximity 150-175 yds, 10th in SG: ARG, 39th in putting, 4th in opportunities gained, 3rd in birdie+ gained, 2nd in DK pts

Tom Hoge: 7600: +6600 – 25,MC,MC,55 here the last 4 years, 39,33,32,MC,14,1,MC,2 his last 8 events, 5th in approach, 6th in ballstriking, 5th in SG: T2G, 9th in good drives, 12th in Par 4 scoring, 10th in Par 3 scoring 175-200 yds, 82nd in Par 5 scoring, 1st in proximity 175-200 yds, 3rd in proximity 150-175 yds, 37th in SG: ARG, 69th in putting, 6th in opportunities gained, 20th in birdie+ gained, 13th in DK pts

Adam Hadwin: 7600: +5000 – MC,41,48,22,30,MC his six times here, 4,7,9,MC,26,16 finishes his last six events, 10th in approach, 25th in ballstriking, 13th in SG: T2G, 4th in good drives, 38th in Par 4 scoring, 43rd in Par 3 scoring 175-200 yds, 41st in Par 5 scoring, 7th in proximity 175-200 yds, 101st in proximity 150-175 yds, 13th in SG: ARG, 31st in putting, 16th in opportunities gained, 30th in birdie+ gained, 35th in DK pts

Luke List: 7400: +10000 – MC,53,MC,MC,53,1,22 finishes his last 7 events, 58,MC,41,3,MC,39 his last six years here, 15th in approach, 2nd in ballstriking, 1st in SG: T2G, 18th in good drives, 13th in Par 4 scoring, 41st in Par 3 scoring 175-200 yds, 13th in Par 5 scoring, 3rd in proximity 175-200 yds, 97th in proximity 150-175 yds, 4th in SG: ARG, 130th in putting, 5th in opportunities gained, 13rd in birdie+ gained, 18th in DK pts

Russell Knox: 7300: +8000 – MC’d his last 3 years here but before that had 40,11,2,18.9 finishes the five years prior, Only 1 MC this year (at Amex), 61,57,6,55,33,33,33 his last seven events, 8th in approach, 5th in ballstriking, 7th in SG: T2G, 1st in good drives, 39th in Par 4 scoring, 5th in Par 3 scoring 175-200 yds, 42nd in Par 5 scoring, 12th in proximity 175-200 yds, 10th in proximity 150-175 yds, 68th in SG: ARG, 123rd in putting, 38th in opportunities gained, 69th in birdie+ gained, 46th in DK pts

Model

Approach (15%)

Ballstriking (10%)

SG: T2G (5%)

Good drives (5%)

Par 4 scoring (10%)

Par 3 scoring 175-200 yds (10%)

Par 5 scoring (5%)

Proximity 175-200 yds (5%)

Proximity 150-175 yds (5%)

SG: ARG (10%)

Putting (5%)

Opportunities gained (10%)

Birdie+ gained (5%)

DK pts (0%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

DraftKings/Betting Notes

  • My biggest gambling win ever (on any sport) came here in 2017 when Wes Bryan won and I came in 7th in the big $33 GPP on DraftKings on Easter Sunday
  • Generally lower 6/6 percentage on DK here
  • A lot of winners here move up the leaderboard on Sunday, so look at live betting opportunities

Bets

Outrights

0.38u Cam Smith (+1600)

0.3u Shane Lowry (+2000)

0.22u Daniel Berger (+2800)

0.2u Russell Henley (+3300)

0.12u Adam Hadwin (+5000)

0.1u Tom Hoge (+6600)

0.08u Russell Knox (+8000)

0.06u Luke List (+10000)

T6s

0.3u Shane Lowry (+400)

0.22u Daniel Berger (+560)

0.2u Russell Henley (+660)

0.12u Adam Hadwin (+1000)

0.1u Tom Hoge (+1320)

0.08u Russell Knox (+1600)

0.06u Luke List (+2000)

DraftKings Lineups

Lineup 1: Shane Lowry, Daniel Berger, Adam Hadwin, Tom Hoge, Luke List, Russell Knox

Lineup 2: Cam Smith, Russell Henley, Adam Hadwin, Tom Hoge, Luke List, Russell Knox

Contests: $20 GPP ($50k to 1st) – 11764 players


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