I came pretty close to crushing last night’s slate but ended up going 4-4-1 to win 0.9 units. I’ll take the winning night. Tonight we have another huge slate with twelve NHL games! Let’s win big!
Sabres vs. Blues (7:00)
On Tuesday night, my Sabres crushed the Leafs pulling off a huge upset as they won 5-2 in Toronto. Huge win and I killed it, hammering the Sabres pretty much every way possible to win over 6 units on that game alone. Even though Buffalo only has four wins in their last eleven games, they’ve played well lately and as a fan I’m pumped to see the start of the core of this team that is giving us a lot of hope for growth and success in the future. In their last 17 games, the Sabres are 9-5-3, improving to 27-37-11 and teams aren’t looking forward to playing the Sabres right now. On the season, we’ve averaged just 2.73 goals per game, eighth fewest in the NHL but have been able to score lately, scoring an average of 3.41 goals per game in their last twelve games. The defense improved with adding first overall pick Owen Power on Tuesday but on the season the Sabres have struggled on the back end, allowing an eighth most in the NHL average of 3.51 goals per game. The Blues have played great lately. They’re on a six game win streak, coming off a big 4-2 win in Boston on Tuesday night and they have an 8-0-1 record in their last nine games to improve to 43-20-10 on the season. They currently hold the third place spot in the Central Division, tied in points with the Minnesota Wild, their likely first round playoff opponent. St. Louis has been good on both ends of the ice this season, scoring a fifth most in the NHL average of 3.64 goals per game and allowing a tenth fewest in the NHL average of 2.82 goals per game. Jordan Binnington is confirmed be starting for them tonight in Buffalo. He hasn’t been great this season with a 3.18 GAA and .901 save percentage. The first time these teams played this season in St. Louis on February 25th, the Blues won 5-3. I’d expect they win again but don’t see it worth betting on with how the Sabres have played lately. I do like the over though which I will take for a unit. I’ll also take a same game parlay for half a unit on the Blues ML, Sabres +2.5 and the over 5.5.
Bruins vs. Senators (7:00)
This is a pretty big mismatch. The Bruins are having a really solid season at 45-23-5 and currently are comfortably in the first Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference, pretty much locked into the playoffs and just playing for seeding, a point back in the Atlantic Division from Tampa. They’re coming off 4-2 losses to the Blues on Tuesday and Capitals on Saturday and have only one win in their last four games but they have been one of the hottest teams in the NHL in the second half of the season with an 18-6-1 record in their last 25 games. The B’s have been one of the best teams in the NHL defensively, allowing the fifth fewest goals in hockey, an average of 2.7 goals per game. They’ve averaged 3.11 goals per game on the season and have steadily improved on that, scoring an average of 3.89 goals per game in their last nine games. The Ottawa Senators blow. They’re coming off a 4-1 win in Detroit on Tuesday and have a 27-40-6 record this season with just that win in their last four games. The Sens have averaged just 2.68 goals per game, seventh fewest in the NHL and they’ve allowed an average of 3.22 goals per game, tenth most in the NHL. The Bruins are 3-0 against the Senators this season with a 3-2 win at home on November 9th, a 2-0 shutout win in Ottawa on February 12th and a 3-2 overtime win in Ottawa on February 19th. I’d expect them to sweep the Sens on the season with a win tonight. I think the -275 moneyline is too expensive here but I’ll go with a unit on the Bruins in regulation and half a unit each on the Sens TT under 2.5 in regulation and the game under 6.5.
Maple Leafs vs. Capitals (7:00)
On Tuesday night, the Leafs lost 5-2 at home to the Buffalo Sabres for just their second loss in their last nine games and first loss in regulation in that span. The Leafs have played great lately and clinched their spot in the playoffs, in second place in the Atlantic with a 47-20-6 record. They have a fantastic offense, averaging 3.79 goals per game, third most in the NHL. They’ve sucked defensively though and have had some of the worst goaltending in the NHL in the second half of the season with the Leafs allowing an average of 3.08 goals per game. Good offense, bad defense and goaltending, the perfect formula to get bounced in the first round. The Caps are playing great right now, coming into tonight’s game on a four game win streak off their 9-2 blowout win against the Flyers on Tuesday with a 13-4-1 record in their last 18 games. They’re 41-22-10 on the season, comfortably in the second Wild Card spot in the East, 15 points ahead of the Islanders and just three points behind the Penguins for third place in the Metropolitan Division. Ovi (85 points, 46 goals) and the Capitals offense are firing on all cylinders right now, averaging 3.34 goals per game on the season, eighth most in the NHL. Their defense has been good too, allowing an average of 2.88 goals per game, 13th fewest in the league. In Washington on February 28th, the Leafs beat the Caps 5-3. I’d slightly lean the Capitals win this game on the road to keep the win streak going but don’t think either side of this matchup is worth betting. I really like the over here though and I will take the over 6.5 for 1.5 units.
Lightning vs. Ducks (7:00)
Coming off a 1-0 overtime loss in a double shutout in Dallas on Tuesday night (loss for me) the Lightning are on quite a slump, with only one win in their last six games. They still have a point lead over the Bruins for third place in the Atlantic Division but are pretty much just playing for seeding now as they’re almost guaranteed to make the playoffs with a 44-21-8 record. The Bolts offense is averaging 3.25 goals per game, tenth most in the NHL and they’ve allowed a seventh fewest in the NHL average of 2.74 goals per game. Andrei Vasilevskiy’s still one of the top goaltenders in the NHL with a 2.43 GAA and .918 save percentage and he’s confirmed in goal tonight. The Ducks have been atrocious and although I got screwed with them taking Florida to overtime on Tuesday (I had the Panthers in regulation), they still lost 3-2. They’ve gone crashing down from their hot start to the season with just two wins in their last 17 games to drop to 29-33-13 on the season. They have scored an average of just 2.75 goals per game, ninth fewest in the NHL and have allowed an average of 3.2 goals per game, eleventh most in the NHL. The first time these teams played this season in Anaheim on January 21st the Ducks shocked the hockey world with a 5-1 blowout win. I’d expect the opposite happens tonight with a get right spot for the Bolts at home. I don’t think its even close to worth betting on though with the Lightning as -345 favorites. I’ll go with a half unit each on the Lightning TT over 3.5 and the Lightning -1.5.
Penguins vs. Islanders (7:00)
These teams just played each other on Tuesday on Long Island in a very entertaining game with the Islanders winning 5-4 in a shootout to avenge their 1-0 shutout loss at home on November 26th in the first meeting between these teams this season. The Penguins haven’t played great lately with only one win in their last six games. They’re 42-22-11 and still hold the third place spot in the Metropolitan Division with a three point lead over the Capitals, but they’re pretty much all just playing for seeding with the East unofficially all locked up. The Pens have averaged 3.25 goals per game, tenth most in the NHL and they’ve been very good defensively, allowing an average of 2.71 goals per game, sixth fewest in the NHL. Tristan Jarry’s been very good in goal this season with a 2.41 GAA, .919 save percentage and four shutouts this year and he’s confirmed in goal tonight after getting the night off on Tuesday where DeSmith started. The Isles have played well lately with a 13-5-1 record in their last 19 games to get to 33-29-9 on the season but its too late for them from their lousy start to the season and they’ll most likely be out of the playoffs, 15 points back from the Capitals with just ten games remaining in their season. The Islanders have been awesome defensively, allowing a fourth fewest in the NHL average of 2.69 goals per game. Ilya Sorokin, who’s confirmed in goal tonight has quietly had a great season with a 2.3 GAA, .927 save percentage and 6 shutouts. They’ve struggled offensively though this season, averaging 2.75 goals per game, ninth fewest in the NHL. Lately they’ve been scoring a decent amount though, averaging 3.31 goals in their last eight games. Even with how high scoring of a game these teams played on Tuesday, I like the under in this game and will take the under 6 for a unit. I’d slightly lean the Penguins win tonight at home, but wouldn’t bet on it.
Hurricanes vs. Red Wings (7:00)
Huge mismatch in this game. The Carolina Hurricanes have been great this season with a 48-18-8 record, with a two point lead over the Rangers for first place in the Metropolitan Division. They’re coming off a big 4-2 win at MSG against the Rangers on Tuesday and have three wins in their last four games. They’ve allowed the fewest goals on the NHL, an average of just 2.37 goals per game and they’re averaging 3.32 goals per game, ninth most in the NHL. Detroit’s been horrible this season, especially in the second half of the year. They’re 28-35-10 with only four wins in their last 19 games. Opposite of the Canes, the Red Wings have allowed the most goals in the NHL, an average of 3.82 goals per game. They haven’t been great offensively either, averaging 2.84 goals per game, twelfth fewest in the NHL. Carolina’s 1-0-1 against the Red Wings this season with a 5-3 win at home on December 16th and a 4-3 overtime loss on March 1st in Detroit. They should easily win tonight but I’m not taking the ML at -375. I’ll take the Carolina TT over 3.5 for a unit.
Predators vs. Oilers (8:00)
This is a fun matchup in the West between two likely playoff teams. The Preds are coming off a 1-0 overtime win against the Sharks on Tuesday (double loser for me since Nashville needed OT to win this one and never came close to hitting their TT). They have a 12-6-1 record in their last 19 games and they’re 42-26-5 this season, in the first Wild Card spot in the West with a point lead over the Stars and four point lead over the Golden Knights. Smashville’s averaging 3.22 goals per game, twelfth most in the NHL and they’ve allowed an eleventh fewest in the NHL average of 2.85 goals per game. Juuse Saros, one on the best goalies in the NHL with a 2.5 GAA, .922 save percentage and four shutouts is confirmed in goal tonight. McDavid (108 points, 66 assists), Draisaitl (102 points, 51 goals) and their Oilers have played great lately with a 12-3-2 record in their last 17 games, but they come into tonight’s game off back to back losses, only able to muster up a goal in each of their last two games, a 5-1 blowout in Minnesota on Tuesday and a 2-1 overtime loss at home to the Avalanche on Saturday. They’re 42-26-6 on the season and in second place in the Pacific Division, just two points ahead of the Kings. Even though a majority of their offense is generated by McDavid and Draisaitl without much depth behind them, Edmonton has averaged 3.41 goals per game, seventh most in the NHL. They’ve struggled with defense and goaltending at times this season, allowing an average of 3.16 goals per game, twelfth most in the NHL. Despite giving up five goals on Tuesday, their defense and goaltending has improved recently and they’ve allowed just 2.2 goals per game on average in their last five. The Oilers won both previous games they played at home against the Predators with a 5-2 win on November 3rd and a 3-2 shootout win on January 27th. Although I think the Preds are the more well rounded team, have a big advantage with Saros in goal and are at home, I just feel the Oilers have a slightly better chance at winning this game. I’d also lean the under but not enough to bet on either. I’ll skip action on this game entirely but it has the potential be the most fun game to watch on the slate.
Stars vs. Wild (8:00)
The Wild have played great hockey recently with an impressive 11-1-2 record in their last 14 games, coming off a huge 5-1 win against the Oilers on Tuesday night. They have a 45-21-6 record and are in second place in the Central Division, tied in points with their likely first round opponent St. Louis Blues. Minnesota’s prolific offense has been great all season, averaging 3.65 goals per game, fourth most in the NHL. They’ve struggled on the back end at times, allowing an average of 3.04 goals per game on the season. That hasn’t been the case lately though, with them locking it up defensively and allowing just an average of 2.14 goals per game in their last 14 games. Since being traded to Minny at the deadline, Marc Andre Fleury has a very good .926 save percentage. The Stars are holding on tight to their final Wild Card spot in the West with a 42-27-4 record, just three points ahead of the Golden Knights and a point back from the Predators. They’ve especially played well this season at home where they’re 23-10-2. They come into tonight’s game off a 1-0 low scoring shutout win over the Lightning on Tuesday and they have played good hockey lately with a 9-3-1 record in their last 13 games. Dallas plays grind it out, boring hockey, averaging 2.89 goals per game and allowing an average of 2.95 goals per game, but really the only stat that matters is if they’re in the win or loss column at the end of the night. The Stars are 2-1 this season against the Wild with a 7-2 loss in Minnesota on November 18th, a 7-4 win on December 20th at home and a 6-3 win on the road on March 6th. I think Minnesota’s the better team here and I like them to win on the road. I’ll take the Wild for half a unit to even up the season series between these Central Division teams and I’ll take the over 5.5 for half a unit as well.
Blackhawks vs. Sharks (8:30)
This game sucks and one of these lousy teams will end their terrible losing streaks. The Blackhawks are 24-38-11 this season and come into tonight’s game on an eight game losing streak. They’ve been terrible on both ends of the ice, averaging just 2.6 goals per game, sixth fewest in the NHL and allowing an average of 3.53 goals per game, seventh most in the NHL, which has just steadily gotten worse since they traded Fleury at the trade deadline (good move though, no shot he was signing in Chicago again). Kevin Lankinen’s horrible with a 3.66 GAA and .886 save percentage. The Sharks are pretty much just as bad with only seven wins in their last 29 games. They’re 29-33-10 and come into tonight’s game on a seven game losing streak off a 1-0 overtime loss in Nashville on Tuesday. San Jose’s even worse offensively than the Blackhawks, averaging just 2.56 goals per game, third fewest in the NHL. They’ve been a bit better defensively though, allowing an average of 3.15 goals per game, 13th most in the NHL. The first time these teams played this season in Chicago on November 28th, the Sharks shut out the Blackhawks in a 2-0 win. I’d slightly lean the Sharks win this game again and would slightly lean the under, but I’d rather sit there flipping coins for money rather than betting on this game. I’ll skip it entirely and definitely won’t even bother tuning in to watch it.
Avalanche vs. Devils (9:00)
Last night the Avs put on a hell of a show, blowing out the LA Kings 9-3 for their seventh straight win. Colorado’s the best team in the NHL with a 53-14-6 record and a two point lead over Florida in the President’s Trophy race. They’ve played great in this closing stretch of the regular season with a 12-1-1 record in their last 14 games. At home this year, they’re an impressive 29-14-6. The Avalanche have the second highest scoring offense in the NHL, averaging 3.84 goals per game and they’ve allowed a seventh fewest in the NHL average of 2.74 goals per game. The Devils are coming off two wins in Arizona (6-2) on Tuesday and Dallas (3-1) on Saturday but they have just four wins in their last 14 games and they’ve sucked this season with a 26-41-6 record. Their offense hasn’t been horrible, averaging 3.07 goals per game but their defense and goaltending is atrocious, allowing an average of 3.66 goals per game, fourth most in the NHL. New Jersey pulled off a pretty big upset being the Avs 5-3 on March 8th at home but I don’t see that happening again on the road tonight. Even with Colorado on the second half of a back to back, they should crush the Devils tonight. The moneyline is too expensive for me at -290, but I’m definitely getting in on this game with a unit on the Avs in regulation, a unit on the Avs TT over 3.5 and the over 6.5.
Flames vs. Golden Knights (9:00)
This could potentially be a great game between these two Pacific Division teams or a boring blowout, but it’s definitely an intriguing matchup. Calgary’s 45-19-9 and have a solid nine point lead over the Oilers for first place in the Pacific Division. They’ve been great on both ends of the ice. They’re scoring an average of 3.51 goals per game, sixth most in the NHL and they’re allowing the second fewest goals in hockey, an average of just 2.47 goals per game. Jacob Markstrom, who’s confirmed in goal tonight will likely be a Vezina candidate this season (although Shesterkin’s the guaranteed winner) with a 2.19 GAA, .924 save percentage and nine shutouts. The Golden Knights lit up the third period of their game Tuesday night in Vancouver, coming back to force overtime down 4-2 going into the third but ultimately never touched the puck in OT, losing 5-4. Vegas has played well lately and have a 6-1-1 record in their last eight games with both losses coming to the Canucks. Every point they can get is huge for the Knights, currently sitting three points out of the playoffs behind the Kings and Stars. They made the huge move of activating Mark Stone on Tuesday night with some salary cap magic for a much needed jolt in this playoff race. On the season, they’ve scored an average of 3.16 goals per game and have allowed an average of 2.97 goals per game. These teams split their two previous games this season with the home team winning each of those games, a 3-2 Vegas win on December 5th and a 6-0 shutout win for Calgary on February 9th. I’d lean the Flames win this one, but Vegas has played well lately and they have way more to play for in this game than Calgary does. I’d also lean the over, but not enough to bet on it. I’ll skip betting this matchup entirely, but I’ll definitely be paying attention to it.
Canucks vs. Coyotes (10:00)
The Canucks are playing good hockey right now, coming into tonight’s game on a four game win streak to improve to 36-28-10 on the season. They almost blew their game against the Golden Knights on Thursday, blowing a 4-2 lead going into the third period but ended up winning 5-4 in overtime. They’ve been very defensively this season, allowing a ninth fewest in the NHL average of 2.8 goals per game. They have struggled at times offensively, averaging just 2.89 goals per game this season, 13th fewest in the NHL but they’ve scored an average of 4.75 goals per game in their last four games. The Coyotes are one of the worst teams in the NHL with a 22-46-5 record and come into tonight’s game on a four game losing streak, getting blown out by at least four goals in all of those games. They’ve scored the fewest goals in all of the NHL, an average of only 2.47 goals per game and they’ve allowed a fourth most in the NHL average of 3.66 goals per game. Both times these teams played this season, the Canucks won in 5-1 blowouts at home on February 8th and last week in Arizona on April 7th. I’d expect a similar result tonight. The moneyline on the Canucks at -310 is ridiculous so I have to get a bit creative here to load up on the ‘nuks. I’ll go with a unit on the Canucks in regulation, a unit on the Canucks TT over 3.5, half a unit on the Coyotes TT under 2.5 in regulation, and a half unit SGP on the Canucks -2.5, Canucks TT over 3.5 and Coyotes TT under 2.5. I’ll take a .2 unit shot at the exact score of 5-1 as well.
1u Blues/Sabres over 6.5 (-115)
.5u SGP: Blues ML & Sabres +2.5 & Blues/Sabres over 5.5 (+330)
1u Bruins in regulation (-162)
.5u Bruins/Senators under 6.5 (-143)
.5u Senators TT under 2.5 in regulation (-165)
1.5u Leafs/Capitals over 6.5 (-142)
.5u Lightning TT over 3.5 (-145)
.5u Lightning -1.5 (-134)
1u Penguins/Islanders under 6 (-135)
1u Hurricanes TT over 3.5 (-185)
.5u Wild ML (-120)
.5u Wild/Stars over 5.5 (-136)
1u Avalanche in regulation (-175)
1u Avalanche TT over 3.5 (-195)
1u Avalanche/Devils over 6.5 (-137)
1u Canucks in regulation (-185)
1u Canucks TT over 3.5 (-167)
.5u Coyotes TT under 2.5 in regulation (-158)
.5u SGP: Canucks -2.5 & Canucks TT over 3.5 & Coyotes TT under 2.5 (+215)
.2u Exact score: Canucks 5-1 (+2400)
Record: 723-532-30 (+16.01 units)
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