Pretty solid day for me yesterday, going 10-5 to win 3.09 units. That gets me over 40 units of winnings on the NHL season, for the second time this year after blowing +40 units a few months ago. Huge comeback. Today we have another huge eleven game slate for the final big Sunday slate of the season. Let’s build on yesterday’s big wins with some more today!
Devils vs. Red Wings (1:00)
Both of these teams suck and they’re both on the second half of back today after taking losses yesterday. The Red Wings got dominated in their 7-2 loss at home to the Penguins yesterday. They have been horrible in the second half of the season with only six wins in their last 24 games and come into today’s game with a 30-39-10 record. They’ve sucked on both ends of the ice, scoring an average of only 2.77 goals per game, tenth fewest in the NHL and allowing the second most goals in the NHL, an average of 3.85 per game. The Devils lost 3-2 in overtime yesterday afternoon at home against the Hurricanes, giving up two goals in the final 4:36 of regulation before losing 1:39 into overtime. They’ve been terrible as well, coming into today’s game with a 27-43-8 record with only five wins in their last 19 games. Offensively they haven’t been too bad, averaging 3.01 goals per game, but similar to Detroit, they have allowed some of the most in the league, an average of 3.63 goals per game, fifth most in the NHL. The first time these two shitty teams played against each other this season, the Red Wings won 5-2 at home on December 18th. I’d slightly lean the Devils win today at home, but not enough to bet on either. I do like the over in this game with both of these teams being horrible defensively and on the second half of a back to back and will take the over for a unit.
Islanders vs. Hurricanes (1:00)
Yesterday the Canes scored two goals in the final 4:36 of the third period to come back from down 2-0 and beat the Devils 3-2 in overtime yesterday for their third win in a row. With their win yesterday and the Rangers loss, the Hurricanes have a two point lead over the Rags for first place in the Metro Division with a 51-20-8 record. They have sort of been limping in the playoffs, dealing with a bunch of injuries and have ten wins in their last twenty games. Carolina has been very good this year though. They’re allowing the fewest scoring in the NHL, an average of only 2.43 goals per game. They have been very good offensively as well, scoring an average of 3.32 goals per game, tenth most in the NHL. The Isles played yesterday afternoon as well, losing 5-3 to my Buffalo Sabres (winner for me too) and since getting eliminated from the playoffs last week, they’re on a four game losing streak with just one win in their last six games. They have been decent enough in the second half of the season, going 14-9-2 in their last 25 games but after their slow start to the season they only have a 35-33-10 record. The Islanders have been good defensively this year, allowing a ninth fewest in the NHL average of 2.8 goals per game. They’ve clearly had their struggles offensively though, averaging just 2.74 goals per game, eighth fewest in the NHL. These teams split their two previous in Carolina with the Hurricanes winning 6-3 on October 14th and the Islanders winning 2-1 on the road in a grind of a game on April 8th. I’ll go with a unit on the Canes moneyline for them to get a win on Long Island and extend their lead for the Division and very important seeding for them.
Blue Jackets vs. Oilers (1:00)
The Oilers clinched their spot in the Stanley Cup Playoffs this season in second place in the Pacific Division with a huge 6-3 win against the Colorado Avalanche on Friday night (loser for me) with Evander Kane scoring a hat trick. They’re 46-26-6 this season and have played great recently with a 16-3-2 record in their last 21 games. McDavid (116 points, 73 assists), Draisaitl (107 points, 54 goals) have been two of the best offensive players in the NHL and even without much offensive depth behind them, Edmonton has scored an average of 3.47 goals per game, seventh most in the NHL. They’ve had defensive struggles at several points over the season season, allowing an average of 3.06 goals per game but they’ve been much better lately with Mike Smith’s great play in goal recently, who’s getting the day off with Mikko Koskinen in goal. The Blue Jackets have been horrible lately, coming into today’s game on a four game losing streak after losing 2-1 at home in a shootout against the Senators on Friday night. They’re very inconsistent this season with a 35-36-7 record and they only have three wins in their last 15 games. Columbus hasn’t been bad offensively, averaging 3.13 goals per game, but they’re atrocious on their own end of the ice, allowing an average of 3.64 goals per game, fourth most in the NHL. The first time these teams played this season, the Oilers won 5-2 at home on December 16th. I’d expect the Oilers offense to tear apart the Jackets defense for an easy win today. I’ll go with two units on the Oilers TT over 3.5 and a unit on the Oilers in regulation.
Flyers vs. Penguins (4:00)
The final battle of the Pennsylvania between these rivals this season. The Penguins are on the second half of a road back to back after blowing out the Red Wings 7-2 yesterday in Detroit (easy winner for me) and they have three wins in their last four games. They’re in third place in the Metro Division with a 45-23-11 record, projected to play the Rangers in the first round but they haven’t played great lately with just four wins in their last ten games. The Pens have been pretty good on both ends of the ice this year. They’re scoring an average of 3.32 goals per game, tenth most in the NHL and allowing a fourth fewest in the NHL average of 2.66 goals per game. With Tristan Jarry out with injury and Casey DeSmith playing yesterday, Pittsburgh will turn to their third string goalie Louis Domingue today. Domingue won his only start this season with a 0.99 GAA and .976 save percentage, making 40 saves in a 2-1 win against the Sharks on January 15th. The Flyers are a horrible teams this season, coming into today’s game with a 24-43-11 record off a 6-3 win in Montreal on Thursday night, which ended their six game losing streak. They only have three wins in their last 14 games. Philly’s been abysmal offensively, averaging only 2.6 goals per game, sixth fewest in the NHL and they’re not much better defensively, allowing a sixth most in the NHL average of 3.62 goals per game. The Flyers have actually been competitive against the Penguins this season but are still 0-3 against them. The Penguins won 3-2 in overtime at home on November 4th, 6-2 in Philly on January 6th and then again in overtime at home 5-4 on February 15th. I think they win this one again but don’t think it’s worth betting on at the prices. I’ll take the Penguins TT over 3.5 for 2 units.
Panthers vs. Lightning (7:00)
This is an awesome matchup for the battle of the state of Florida. The Panthers have first place in the Eastern Conference locked up and they have a four point lead over the Avalanche in their President’s Trophy Race with a 57-15-6 record. After yesterday’s 3-2 overtime win over the Leafs, Florida’s on a 13 game win streak with an impressive 20-2-1 record in their last 23 games. They easily have the highest scoring offense in the NHL, averaging 4.17 goals per game and they haven’t been too shabby defensively either, allowing an average of 2.82 goals per game, tenth fewest in the show. The Lightning are coming off a big 6-2 win against the Predators last night and they’ve won four of their last five games They’re 48-22-8 on the season, putting them in third place in the Atlantic Division. The Bolts have been good on both ends of the ice this season as well, as would be expected for the back to back Cup champs. They’re scoring an average of 3.4 goals per game, eighth most in the NHL and they’ve allowed a sixth fewest in the NHL average of 2.74 goals per game. The Panthers are 2-0-1 this season against their in-state rivals with a 4-1 win in Tampa on October 19th, a 3-2 overtime loss on November 13th in Tampa and a 9-3 blowout win at home on December 30th. I’d expect Florida wins again tonight. I’ll go with a unit on the Panthers moneyline and 1.5 units on the over 6.5.
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs (7:00)
This is another great game between two playoff teams in the East. The Leafs are coming off back to back losses in the state of Florida, getting blown out 8-1 in Tampa on Thursday and then losing 3-2 in overtime in Sunrise against the Panthers yesterday. They’re 51-21-7 holding the second place spot in the Atlantic Division. Even coming off two losses in a row, they’ve played well lately with 12-2-2 record in their last 16 games. Toronto has the second highest scoring offense in the NHL, averaging 3.81 goals per game but their defense and goaltending has sucked, especially in the second half of the season, allowing an average of 3.13 goals per game. Easy way to get bounced early in the playoffs when you can’t keep the puck out of your own net. The Caps have played great lately with a 16-5-2 record in their last 23 games, coming off a 2-0 shutout win in Arizona on Friday night. They’re in the second Wild Card spot in the East with a 44-23-11 record, two points behind the Penguins and Bruins for seeding and they only have two losses in their last nine games. Ovi (90 points, 50 goals) and the Capitals offense has been very good, averaging 3.37 goals per game, ninth most in the NHL and they’ve allowed a 13th fewest in the NHL average of 2.91 goals per game. Toronto has won both games these teams have played against each other with a 5-3 win in Washington DC on February 28th and then a 7-3 win at home on April 14th. I’d slightly lean the Caps win this game at home tonight, but not enough to bet on it. I do like the over though, which I will take for a unit.
Jets vs. Avalanche (7:00)
The Avs, who have first place in the Western Conference all locked up with a 55-17-6 record are four points behind Florida in their two horse race to win the President’s Trophy. They’ve played like shit lately though, coming into tonight’s game on a three game losing streak, which I’m pretty sure I lost on all three of those. Colorado has the second highest scoring offense in the NHL, scoring an average of 3.81 goals per game and they’ve allowed an average of 2.78 goals per game, seventh fewest in the NHL. The Jets are on a four game losing streak coming into tonight with a 35-32-11 record. They’ve been quite inconsistent and haven’t been very good on either end of the ice, averaging 2.97 goals per game and allowing an average of 3.15 goals per game. The Avalanche are 3-0 this season against Winnipeg with a 7-1 win at home on January 6th, a 6-3 win at home on February 25th and then winning 5-4 in overtime in Winnipeg on April 8th. I’d lean Colorado wins this game again to sweep the Jets on the season, but with how they seem to be mailing it in going into the playoffs, I don’t think they’re worth betting on even with a decent price on today’s game. I’ll go with a unit on the Avs TT over 3.5.
Canadiens vs. Bruins (7:00)
Yesterday the Bruins beat the Rangers 3-1 at home for their third win in their last four games. The B’s are 48-25-5 this season which slots them into the first Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference, three points back from Tampa for third place in the Atlantic Division. They have struggled a little bit lately with injuries to two of their best players, David Pastrnak and Hampus Lindholm getting three wins in their last seven game. Boston’s one of the best teams in the NHL defensively, allowing an average of just 2.67 goals per game, fifth fewest in the NHL. Offensively they’ve scored an average of 3.04 goals per game, just grinding out low scoring wins. The Habs are the worst team in the NHL with a 20-48-11 record and after yesterday 6-4 loss to the Senators, they’re on an eight game losing streak. Montreal’s allowed the most goals in the NHL, an average of 3.89 goals per game and they’ve only scored a second fewest in the NHL average of 2.54 goals per game. Tonight they’re starting Sam Montembeault in goal who’s been horrendous with a 3.78 GAA and .891 save percentage. The B’s are 3-0 this season against the Canadiens, winning 5-2 at home on November 14th, 5-1 at home on January 12th and then 3-2 in overtime on March 21st in Montreal. They should sweep them with a win on the road tonight. I think the moneyline at -305 is way too expensive but I’ll go with two units on the Bruins in regulation tonight.
Predators vs. Wild (8:00)
The Minnesota Wild are playing fantastic hockey. They’re on a four game winning streak and have the tie breaker for home ice over their first round opponent Blues but are tied in points with them with a 50-21-7 record. They have a 16-1-3 record in their last 19 games and look in great shape heading into the playoffs. The Wild have the fifth highest scoring offense in the NHL, averaging 3.72 goals per game. Their defense has struggled at points this year as they’ve allowed an average of 3.04 goals per game on the season. They’ve been better defensively lately though, allowing an average of 2.51 goals per game in their last 20 games with Talbot and Fleury feeding off each other. Nashville got crushed 6-2 in Tampa last night and they only have three wins in their last eight games but they continue to hold onto their first Wild Card spot in the West, tied with Dallas and four points ahead of Vegas with a 44-29-5 record. The Predators have been good on both ends of the ice. They’re scoring an average of 3.15 goals per game, twelfth most in the NHL and they’re allowing an average of 2.96 goals per game. Tonight All Star goalie Juuse Saros will get the night off with David Rittich starting in goal. Rittich sucks and has a 3.33 GAA and .886 save percentage this year. The Preds are 3-0 against the Wild this season and have won in dramatic fashion in all three of those games, with a 5-2 win in Minnesota on October 24th, a 6-2 win in Minnesota on March 13th and another 6-2 win at home on April 5th. I think the Wild are the better team in this game but with their track record against Nashville this year and the Preds at home, I’d lean the Predators win this game on the second half of a back to back but not enough to bet on it. I like the over, especially with Rittich starting for Nashville and will take it for 2 units.
Ducks vs. Blues (8:30)
The Blues are in great shape in this closing stretch of the season, tied in points with their first round opponent Wild but in third place in the Central due to the tiebreaker with a 48-20-11 record. Coming off a 5-4 overtime win where they blew a 4-1 lead in Arizona yesterday, St. Louis has an awesome 13-0-2 record in their last 15 games. They have scored the fourth most goals in the NHL, an average of 3.75 goals per game and they’ve allowed an eleventh fewest in the NHL average of 2.84 goals per game. With Jordan Binnington playing in goal yesterday, Ville Husso should be back in goal tonight (and I’d assume he starts Game 1 of the playoffs). Husso’s been great this season with a 2.46 GAA and .923 save percentage. The Ducks have been horrible in the second half of the season. They’re coming off a 4-2 loss in LA last night and have only three wins in their last 21 games to drop to 30-25-14 on the season after their hot start to the year. They’ve been pretty lousy on both ends of the ice, scoring an average of 2.76 goals per game, ninth fewest in the NHL and allowing an average of 3.22 goals per game, tenth most in the NHL. Surprisingly, the Ducks are 2-0 against the Blues this season, winning 4-1 at home on November 7th and 3-2 in overtime on December 12th. Even with the Blues on the road tonight, I don’t see that continuing with a sweep on the season. I’ll lay the juice on the Blues ML for a unit.
Golden Knights vs. Sharks (10:00)
The chances for the Vegas Golden Knights to make the playoffs are starting to look slim. They’re coming off a 4-3 overtime win against the Capitals on Wednesday night on a nasty goal from Shea Theodore but the Knights have just two wins in their last five games and with a 42-31-5 record, they’re four points behind the Predators and Stars for the two Wild Card spots in the West. Vegas has scored an average of 3.15 goals per game, twelfth most in the NHL and they’ve allowed an average of 2.96 goals per game. With Robin Lehner out for the rest of the season, it’s Logan Thompson’s net tonight and likely the rest of the regular season. He has a 2.56 GAA and .920 save percentage. Tonight the Knights play their biggest rival, the Sharks. San Jose is 31-25-12 this season and on the second half of a back to back after beating the lowly Blackhawks 4-1 last night. They’ve been one of the worst teams in the NHL in the second half of the season with only two wins in their last 13 games and just nine wins in their last 35. The Sharks are pathetic offensively, averaging only 2.58 goals per game, third fewest in the league and they’re only a bit better defensively, allowing a 13th most in the NHL average of 3.13 goals per game. The Knights won both matchups these teams have played this season with a 4-1 win on the road on February 20th and a 3-1 win at home on March 1st. They should get another win at home tonight in the Fortress in a must win scenario. The moneyline on this game is so expensive at -335 but I’ll eat the juice and go with a unit on the Golden Knights in regulation.
1u Devils/Red Wings over 6.5 (-113)
1u Hurricanes ML (-150)
2u Oilers TT over 3.5 (-150)
1u Oilers in regulation (-150)
2u Penguins TT over 3.5 (-177)
1u Panthers ML (+125)
1.5u Panthers/Lightning over 6.5 (-139)
1u Leafs/Capitals over 7 (-115)
1u Avalanche TT over 3.5 (-121)
2u Bruins in regulation (-182)
2u Wild/Predators over 6.5 (-104)
1u Blues ML (-195)
1u Golden Knights in regulation (-200)
Record: 793-574-30 (+40.87 units)