Another great night yesterday, winning 8.55 units. My game bets went 6-2 to win 5.65 units and last night the Avs swept the Predators to end the first series of the first round, a solid 2.9 unit win for me on my series bets there. Calgary coach Daryl Suter was right in his prediction that whatever team would match up with Colorado would waste eight days playing the first round before they hit the golf course. Tonight we have four Game 5s with the series shifting locations again all tied up at 2-2. These are all very important games with historically the winners of Game 5 in tied series typically going on to win around 75% of those series.
Game 5: Hurricanes vs. Bruins (7:00)
After they looked like shit in Games 1 and 2 of this series in Carolina, the Bruins showed how important home ice is in the playoffs with back to back wins at home in Games 3 and 4 to tie up the series 2-2 heading back to Carolina for Game 5 tonight. Truly a tale of two cities. The price of this series is back to exactly the same as it opened and although I’d slightly lean the Hurricanes win this series at this point with home ice, but not enough to hedge out of it when I think this series that I think goes seven games. I also expect the Hurricanes to win this game at home to put the Bruins on the brink of eliminated but not enough for it to be worth betting at -155. Going into this series, I leaned unders and was wrong with that, with every game hitting the over. I’ll switch sides on that and take the over 5.5 for a unit.
Game 5: Maple Leafs vs. Lightning (7:30)
I won my game of the year, with my biggest bet of the season for an eight unit win on the Bolts in Game 4 at home. They scored a minute into the game and dominated through for a completely sweat free win. That tied the series up at 2-2 with both teams splitting both games in both locations. I still like the Lightning to win this series in probably seven games, but could definitely see the Leafs win this game at home tonight after getting embarrassed in Game 4. I’ll just ride my 3 units worth of series bets on Tampa tonight with no bets on a side for Game 5. I will take the over though for a unit, expecting both teams to put the puck in the back of the net.
Game 5: Wild vs. Blues (9:30)
Just as I expected, this has been easily the best series of the first round this year that I still like to go to seven games. Surprisingly though, none of the games in this series have been competitive with all four games decided by at least three goals. After games 2 and 3, where the Wild dominated, I thought there was a chance Minnesota ran away with this series quickly and with my series bets on it to go over 5.5 and 6.5 games, I was glad to cash the over 5.5 games prop with the Blues tying up the series. St. Louis came out on fire in Game 4 and if it weren’t for Fleury’s fantastic play in goal, that game would have been a huge blowout early with the Blues pouring it on the way they did. Jordan Binnington is confirmed in goal again for them after his win at home on Sunday. That was his first playoff win in his last ten starts, his first since Game 7 of the 2019 Stanley Cup Finals against the Bruins. I like the Wild to bounce back from that 5-2 loss in St. Louis with a win tonight at home. I’ll take the Wild ML for a unit. I’ll also take the Wild TT over 3.5, game over 6.5 and Wild puck line for a half unit each.
Game 5: Oilers vs. Kings (10:00)
I thought the Kings were dead in this series after getting outscored 14-2 in Games 2 and 3, but the Kings answered back with a huge 4-0 win (triple loser for me) on Sunday to even this series going back to Edmonton tonight for Game 5. I didn’t expect that game for LA whatsoever and was shocked by how much they dominated the game on both ends of the ice, shutting down the likes of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl defensively while also outshooting the Oilers 46-31. I thought my series bet of the Oilers to win in six games would be an easy cash but now its a sweat with them needing to win tonight along with Game 6 in LA on Thursday to cash. I’ll let it ride on tonight’s game and double down on it with a unit on the Oilers in regulation. I will also take the over 6 in this series for a unit. Let’s go Oil!!
1u Bruins/Hurricanes over 5.5 (-126)
1u Leafs/Lightning over 6.5 (-118)
1u Wild ML (-159)
.5u Wild -1.5 (+155)
.5u Wild TT over 3.5 (-110)
.5u Wild/Blues over 6.5 (-105)
1u Oilers in regulation (-125)
1u Oilers/Kings over 6 (-135)
1u Bruins (+104)
2u Lightning (-107)
1u Lightning (-118)
1u Wild/Blues over 6.5 games (+220)
.2u Wild win series 4-2 (+490)
.2u Wild win series 4-3 (+475)
.2u Blues win series 4-3 (+600)
2u Oilers in six games or less (-114)
2.5u Rangers (-118)
1u Rangers (-150)
2.5u Panthers in six games or less (-152)
3u Flames in six games or less (-157)
1u Bruins: Stanley Cup Champions (+1800)
1u Wild: Stanley Cup Champions (+1600)
.5u Blues: Stanley Cup Champions (+2200)
Record: 845-637-36 (+16.68 units)
Regular Season: 809-605-32 (+19.61 units)
Playoffs: 36-32-4 (-2.93 units)