PGA Championship – Gambling/DFS Preview 2022

Southern Hills Country Club – Tulsa, OK

Course Breakdown

Par 70, 7556 yards, course had a major redesign in 2019 and the course history from when this course hosted the 2007 PGA probably won’t help much, length of the course is deceiving and approach shots will come from a balance of all the proximity ranges, seven of the Par 4s are over 450 yards, three Par 3s over 217 yards, both Par 5s are extremely long that are at least 632 yards which won’t be reachable in two, wide rolling fairways with bunkers guarding the landing areas, fairways average almost 40 yards wide, 2.5 inch bermuda grass rough with some strange lies, long fescue if golfers miss wildly, bentgrass greens that are much smaller than tour average with lots of false fronts and runoff areas, greens are very firm and fast with lots of slope and undulation, bunkers surrounding some greens, some false fronts can leave almost 40 yards away from the green if they run off

Tournament Notes

  • Cut line is Top 70 and ties rather than the usual Top 65 and ties of a normal tour event
  • Since 2015 (besides the COVID year), every major winner has played in one of the two weeks prior to the major
  • Every PGA Championship winner since 2006 has made the cut the week before winning
  • Besides Phil last year who finished 69th in his even the week before (but was first round leader and 10th after 36 holes), every other winner since 2006 finished T28 or better the week prior

Weather

Possible 40-50 mph gusts of wind in the forecast which could cause complete carnage and make this course play extremely difficult. The area hasn’t had much rain so the course will be fast and firm. The Thursday AM/Friday PM wave stack seems to be more favorable.

Key Stats

Approach, SG: OTT, SG: ARG

Corollary Courses

  • Augusta National (The Masters)
  • Colonial Country Club (Charles Schwab Challenge)

Field

155 golfers – most of the best players in the world are in the field this week, but there’s also a ton of cross offs of PGA Professionals that are guaranteed to miss the cut and older Champions Tour guys

Last Year’s Champion (not defending his title): Phil Mickelson (Kiawah Island)

One and Done: Scottie Scheffler

One and Done Considerations: Scottie Scheffler

Players

Scottie Scheffler: 11400: +1400 – Best player in the world right now, has said that this is his favorite course, Masters Champion, 15,1,55,1,7,1,20,25 in his events this season, 12th in approach, 65th in SG: OTT, 23rd in driving distance, 72nd in fairways gained, 62nd in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yds, 4th in Par 4 scoring, 24th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 4th in SG: ARG, 15th in putting, 36th in opportunities gained, 22nd in bogie avoidance

Justin Thomas: 10700: +1600 – Former winner of the PGA Championship, 5,35,8,3,33,6,8,20 finishes his last eight events, 7th in approach, 22nd in SG: OTT, 11th in driving distance, 125th in fairways gained, 86th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yds, 3rd in Par 4 scoring, 14th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 21st in SG: ARG, 63rd in putting, 1st in opportunities gained, 5th in bogie avoidance

Hideki Matsuyama: 9200: +2200 – Former Masters winner (last year), 3,14,20,39,8,30,1 finishes his last seven events, 6th in approach, 47th in SG: OTT, 88th in driving distance, 28th in fairways gained, 8th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yds, 4th in Par 4 scoring, 61st in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 44th in SG: ARG, 97th in putting, 3rd in opportunities gained, 7th in bogie avoidance

Daniel Berger: 8600: +5500 – 21,50,13,4 finishes his last four events, 2nd in approach, 49th in SG: OTT, 127th in driving distance, 12th in fairways gained, 7th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yds, 11th in Par 4 scoring, 20th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 34th in SG: ARG, 103rd in putting, 44th in opportunities gained, 15th in bogie avoidance

Cameron Young: 7600: +6600 – 2,3,MC,MC,13,6,2,26,20 finishes his last nine events, 54th in approach, 3rd in SG: OTT, 5th in driving distance, 47th in fairways gained, 30th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yds, 1st in Par 4 scoring, 1st in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 49th in SG: ARG, 46th in putting, 1st in opportunities gained, 34th in bogie avoidance

Luke List: 7200: +25000 – He’s played like shit lately especially with the putter but worth the $2 bet for the T7 each way at 50:1, MC,31,MC,MC,53,MC,MC,53,1,22 in his events this season, 20th in approach, 9th in SG: OTT, 9th in driving distance, 110th in fairways gained, 46th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yds, 27th in Par 4 scoring, 50th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 25th in SG: ARG, 151st in putting, 14th in opportunities gained, 63rd in bogie avoidance

Tom Hoge: 7100: +12500 – 17,MC,39,33,3,MC,14,1,MC,2 his last ten events, 9th in approach, 36th in SG: OTT, 109th in driving distance, 19th in fairways gained, 13th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yds, 16th in Par 4 scoring, 11th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 48th in SG: ARG, 101st in putting, 10th in opportunities gained, 12th in bogie avoidance

Sebastian Munoz: 6800: +9000 – 3,29,33,26,21,23,39 finishes his last seven events, 29th in approach, 21st in SG: OTT, 82nd in driving distance, 17th in fairways gained, 19th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yds, 20th in Par 4 scoring, 2nd in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 25th in SG: ARG, 88th in putting, 13th in opportunities gained, 83rd in bogie avoidance

Model

Approach (25%)

SG: OTT (15%)

Driving Distance (5%)

Fairways Gained (5%)

Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yds (5%)

Par 4 Scoring (10%)

Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yds (5%)

SG: ARG (15%)

Putting (5%)

Opportunities Gained (5%)

Bogie Avoidance (5%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

Bets

Outrights

.44u Scottie Scheffler (+1400)

.38u Justin Thomas (+1600)

.28u Hideki Matsuyama (+2200)

.12u Daniel Berger (+5500)

.1u Cameron Young (+6600)

.08u Sebastian Munoz (+9000)

.06u Tom Hoge (+12500)

.04u Luke List (+25000)

T7s

.28u Hideki Matsuyama (+440)

.12u Daniel Berger (+1100)

.1u Cameron Young (+1320)

.08u Sebastian Munoz (+1800)

.06u Tom Hoge (+2500)

.04u Luke List (+5000)

DraftKings Lineups

Lineup 1: Justin Thomas, Hideki Matsuyama, Daniel Berger, Cameron Young, Tom Hoge, Sebastian Munoz

Contests: $25 GPP $100k to 1st (14,117 players)


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