RBC Canadian Open – Gambling/DFS Preview 2022

St. George’s Golf and Country Club – Toronto, ON

Course Breakdown

Par 70, 7014 yards, POA greens, three Par 5s and two are reachable by a majority of the field, five Par 3s and four of them are at least 200 yards, seven of the Par 4s are between 450-500 yds tree lined fairways, lots of undulations on the fairways, thick rough, lots of bunkers guarding the greens, greens are small with lots of undulation

Tournament Notes

  • This course last hosted the Canadian Open in 2010, won by Carl Pettersson and this is the sixth time this course has hosted this event
  • This event hasn’t been held since 2019 due to COVID travel restrictions to Canada

Key Stats

Approach, SG: OTT, SG: ARG

Main proximity distance range on approach: 175-200 yards (23%), 200+ yards (23%)

Field

139 golfers – Very good field strength, especially for this event and the week before a major

Defending Champion (2019): Rory McIlroy (Hamilton)

One and Done: Sebastian Munoz (I can’t believe he’s my 1&D but whatever)

One and Done Considerations: JT, Rory, Lowry, Scottie, Munoz

Players

Justin Thomas: 10900: +1000 – MC,1,5,35,8,3,33,6,8,20 his last ten events, 4th in approach, 5th in SG: OTT, 114th in fairways gained, 4th in sand saves, 6th in proximity 175-200 yards, 10th in proximity 200+ yards, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 71st in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 15th in SG: ARG, 15th in putting, 1st in opportunities gained, 4th in birdie+ gained, 3rd in bogie avoidance

Shane Lowry: 10100: +1800 – 32,23,3,3,12,13,2 his last seven events, 3rd in approach, 32nd in SG: OTT, 69th in fairways gained, 7th in sand saves, 5th in proximity 175-200 yards, 2nd in proximity 200+ yards, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 106th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 52nd in SG: ARG, 7th in putting, 14th in opportunities gained, 19th in birdie+ gained, 1st in bogie avoidance

Corey Conners: 9600: +2000 – He’s from Canada, 13,MC,21,12,6,35,26,11 his last eight events, 17th in approach, 4th in SG: OTT, 21st in fairways gained, 32nd in sand saves, 64th in proximity 175-200 yards, 19th in proximity 200+ yards, 22nd in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 1st in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 58th in SG: ARG, 69th in putting, 39th in opportunities gained, 18th in birdie+ gained, 6th in bogie avoidance

Sebastian Munoz: 9200: +4500 – 48,55,3,29,33,26,21,23,39 his last nine events, 19th in approach, 13th in SG: OTT, 30th in fairways gained, 16th in sand saves, 8th in proximity 175-200 yards, 9th in proximity 200+ yards, 1st in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 60th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 40th in SG: ARG, 71st in putting, 11th in opportunities gained, 13th in birdie+ gained, 17th in bogie avoidance

Model

Approach (20%)

SG: OTT (10%)

Fairways Gained (5%)

Sand Saves (5%)

Proximity 175-200 yards (10%)

Proximity 200+ yards (10%)

Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards (5%)

Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards (5%)

SG: ARG (10%)

Putting (5%)

Opportunities Gained (5%)

Birdie+ Gained (5%)

Bogie Avoidance (5%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

DraftKings/Betting Notes

  • Golfers that start on 1 should have a slight advantage on DraftKings showdown slates for birdie streaks
  • My betting card is a little bit different this week since I’m going with multiple guys under 20:1, so I have a smaller card with less each ways and bigger outrights

Bets

Outrights

0.6u Justin Thomas (+1000)

0.34u Shane Lowry (+1800)

0.3u Corey Connors (+2000)

0.14u Sebastian Munoz (+4500)

T6s

0.3u Corey Connors (+400)

0.14u Sebastian Munoz (+900)


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