US Open – Gambling/DFS Preview 2022

The Country Club – Brookline, MA

Course Breakdown

Par 70, 7264 yards, water in play on 4 holes, 82 bunkers, both Par 5s are pretty long, 3 of the Par 3s are between 190-220 yards, 8 of the 10 Par 4s are between 450-500 yards and many of those are very close to 500 yards, average sized fairways with some bunkers, very thick five inch deep rough and even thicker fescue and some trees if they miss wildly, lot of blind tee shots and approach shots through the course, POA greens with bentgrass mix, second smallest greens of the year behind Pebble Beach that will likely play firm and very fast, most greens slope from back to front with lots of slope and undulation and downhill putts on these greens are very tough

Tournament Notes

  • Third major of the year
  • This course previously held the US Amateur in 2013 where Matt Fitzpatrick won
  • Every US Open winner on courses in northeast in the last 10 years has had a Top 5 finish somewhere else in the northeast in their career
  • Each of the last ten US Open winners had already posted at least a T25 in the US Open
  • Eight of the last ten US Open winners had a T10 in at least one of the last two majors prior to their win
  • Cut is Top 60 and ties, less than every other major and a typical PGA event

Key Stats

Approach, SG: OTT, SG: ARG

Field

128 golfers – the best players in the world including the PGA Tour, LIV Tour and DP World Tour

Defending Champion: Jon Rahm (Torrey Pines)

One and Done: Mito Pereira

One and Done Considerations: Rory, Scheffler, Xander, Lowry, Fitz, Mito

Players

Rory McIlroy: 10500: +1300 – Coming off a win last week in Canada, 1,18,8,5,2,MC,33,13,10 finishes in his last nine events, 7,8,9 finishes his last three US Opens, 31st in approach, 3rd in SG: OTT, 3rd in driving distance, 73rd in fairways gained, 13th in good drives, 6th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 95th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 6th in SG: ARG, 28th in putting, 6th in bogie avoidance, used a +300 boost on DraftKings for the outright, projected 17.2% ownership on DraftKings

Xander Schauffele: 9600: +2000 – Has never finished worse than 7th at a US Open with 7,5,3,6,5 finishes the last five years, 18,13,5,MC,12,MC,13,3 finishes his last eight events, I think this could be his first major championship win, 16th in approach, 30th in SG: OTT, 44th in driving distance, 19th in fairways gained, 5th in good drives, 15th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 11th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 24th in SG: ARG, 41st in putting, 13th in bogie avoidance, projected 17.6% ownership on DraftKings which could increase with the news of Spieth leaving the range with a flu or cold, gained over 6 good drives per tournament over his past five events, has gained over 7.5 strokes T2G in his last four straight events

Shane Lowry: 9000: +3000 – best player in the field by a significant margin on holes that have played on average over par, 10,32,23,3,3,12,13,2 finishes his last eight events, 65,43,28,MC,46,2,9 finishes in his last seven US Opens, 13th in approach, 34th in SG: OTT, 43rd in driving distance, 28th in fairways gained, 4th in good drives, 9th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 98th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 54th in SG: ARG, 18th in putting, 2nd in bogie avoidance, projected 17.4% ownership on DraftKings

Cameron Young: 8800: +4000 – 60,3,2,3,MC,MC,13,16,2,26,20,40 finishes this season, missed cuts in both of his US Opens (last year and 2019) but he’s a much better golfer now than he was even just a year ago, 45th in approach, 2nd in SG: OTT, 5th in driving distance, 35th in fairways gained, 44th in good drives, 1st in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 26th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 23rd in SG: ARG, 51st in putting, 16th in bogie avoidance, projected 13.6% ownership on DraftKings

Matthew Fitzpatrick: 8500: +3000 – Won the US Amateur here in 2013, 55,MC,12,12,35 finishes in his last five US Opens, 10,MC,5,2,MC,14,5,MC,9,10,6 finishes this season, 24th in approach, 11th in SG: OTT, 37th in driving distance, 26th in fairways gained, 12th in good drives, 71st in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 2nd in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 27th in SG: ARG, 35th in putting, 1st in bogie avoidance, projected 15.9% ownership on DraftKings

Max Homa: 8100: +4000 – MC the last two years (and 2013 as an amateur) at US Opens, 5,23,13,1,48,13,17,10,14 finishes his last nine events, 5th in approach, 17th in SG: OTT, 21st in driving distance, 33rd in fairways gained, 64th in good drives, 7th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 51st in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 83rd in SG: ARG, 10th in putting, 14th in bogie avoidance, projected 15.2% ownership on DraftKings

Mito Pereira: 7800: +6000 – Blew a 71 hole lead at the PGA Championship, 13,7,3,17,26,13,27,MC,30,15 finishes his last ten events, MC in both his US Opens in 2020 and 2019, 10th in approach, 8th in SG: OTT, 58th in driving distance, 9th in fairways gained, 2nd in good drives, 40th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 11th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 37th in SG: ARG, 99th in putting, 22nd in bogie avoidance, projected 14% ownership on DraftKings

Sungjae Im: 7600: +4000 – 35,22,MC finishes in his three US Open appearances, 10,15,21,8,55,20,MC,33,6,11 finishes this season, 66th in approach, 13th in SG: OTT, 62nd in driving distance, 22nd in fairways gained, 10th in good drives, 7th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 46th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 7th in SG: ARG, 50th in putting, 4th in bogie avoidance, projected 16.3% ownership on DraftKings

Sebastian Munoz: 7400: +10000 – MC,59,MC finishes in his three US Opens, hasn’t missed a cut since the Amex with 25,48,55,3,28,33,26,21,23,39 finishes since then, 27th in approach, 20th in SG: OTT, 56th in driving distance, 15th in fairways gained, 7th in good drives, 3rd in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 51st in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 52nd in SG: ARG, 62nd in putting, 17th in bogie avoidance, projected 8% ownership on DraftKings

Model

Approach (25%)

SG: OTT (15%)

Driving Distance (5%)

Fairways Gained (5%)

Good Drives (5%)

Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards (10%)

Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards (5%)

SG: ARG (15%)

Putting (5%)

Bogie Avoidance (10%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

DraftKings/Betting Notes

  • Placement points are very important to win GPPs since the course will play very tough
  • This event has the lowest 6/6 percentage annually
  • There might be a slight wave advantage for the Thursday AM/Friday PM tee times with the projected wind in the forecast
  • I don’t love my lineups for the Milly Maker because there’s SO much chalk but I have too much FOMO not to do it, so I just did an extra $10 for each on the double ups so I could still be profitable if the doubles hit but the GPPs lose
  • I have a huge betting card this week

Bets

Outrights

.5u Rory McIlroy (+1300)

.28u Xander Schauffele (+2000)

.2u Shane Lowry (+3000)

.2u Matthew Fitzpatrick (+3000)

.16u Cameron Young (+4000)

.16u Max Homa (+4000)

.16u Sungjae Im (+4000)

.1u Mito Pereira (+6000)

.06u Sebastian Munoz (+10000)

T5s

.2u Matthew Fitzpatrick (+600)

T7s

.28u Xander Schauffele (+400)

.2u Shane Lowry (+600)

.16u Cameron Young (+800)

.16u Max Homa (+800)

.16u Sungjae Im (+800)

.1u Mito Pereira (+1200)

.06u Sebastian Munoz (+2000)

DraftKings Lineups

Lineup 1: Rory, Fitz, Homa, Pereira, Sungjae, Munoz

Lineup 2: Lowry, Young, Fitz, Homa, Pereira, Sungjae

Lineup 3: Xander, Lowry, Fitz, Pereira, Sungjae, Munoz

Lineup 4: Xander, Lowry, Homa, Pereira, Sungjae, Munoz

Contests:

$15 Milly Maker

$25 Single Entry Double Up


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