John Deere Classic – Gambling/DFS Preview 2022

TPC Deere Run – Quad Cities, IL

Course Breakdown

Par 71, 7257 yds, bentgrass, 5 Par 4s between 400-450 yds, this place is a birdiefest, top ten easiest course on tour, the 3 Par 5s should be reachable in 2 by most of the field along with the driveable Par 4 14th, wide tree lined fairways guarded by large bunkers in the landing zones, rough is fairly penal but doesn’t come in play that often since driving accuracy is ~72% (tour average ~62%), fairways usually play firm with a good amount of roll with lot of uneven lies and undulations in the fairway, three water hazards in play on three holes, large greens guarded by bunkers and collection areas, greens are very easy to hit and very receptive with ~71% GIR (tour average ~65%) and slow with a bit of undulation and slope, 76 bunkers on the course that were all completely rebuilt and slightly changed after the 2021 event 

Tournament Notes

  • There have been 23 first time winners here since 1971, the most of an PGA Tour event
  • Since 2008, 7 of the 13 winners were in the T50 of the OWGR (6 of the 13 were in the T20) and two of the ones outside of that were Spieth and Bryson when they won, who went on to become superstars. This stat doesn’t mean much though this week, as the only golfer in the T50 in the world playing this event this week is Webb Simpson. 
  • In 2018, every golfer that finished in the T10 gained strokes in proximity 150-175 yds and all besides Varner gained from 175-200 yds. In 2019, all but Frittelli (who was putting lights out on the way to his win) and Chris Stroud, everyone in the T10 gained strokes in proximity 150-175 yds. 

Key Stats

Approach, Ballstriking, Proximity 150-175 yards

Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yards (20.3%), 125-150 yards (20%), 150-175 yards (19.1%)

Corollary Courses

Kapalua Resort Plantation Course (Sentry Tournament of Champions) – Lots of winners of this had success at Kapalua, but not many are in the field this week

Field

149 golfers – This field is horrendous. Typically this is a pretty bad event but on top of that, the Scottish Open is next week, which is now a combined event between the DP World Tour and PGA Tour. On top of that, a lot of the the mid tier players that used to play this event are now on the LIV Tour, playing in Portland this week and no longer on the PGA Tour

Defending Champion: Lucas Glover (-19)

Runner Up Last Year: Ryan Moore, Kevin Na (-17)

One and Done: Webb Simpson

One and Done Considerations: Webb, Hadwin, Stallings

Players

Adam Hadwin: 10400: +1800 – Its outrageous that the PGA Tour has a non-alternate field event where Hadwin is the second favorite in a field, make sure you shop the line on him, played fantastic and lead through two rounds of the US Open a couple weeks ago where he finished 7th, 35,18,71,MC,26,4,7,9 finishes in his eight events prior, 8th and 18th place finishes his only two times here back in 2016 and 2015, 15th in approach, 21st in ballstriking, 9th in Par 4 scoring, 50th in proximity 125-150 yards, 59th in proximity 150-175 yards, 70th in proximity 200+ yards, 4th in SG: ARG, 59th in putting, 5th in opportunities gained, 2nd in birdie+ gained, 1st in DK points, 15.9% projected ownership

Scott Stallings: 8900: +3300 – 8th last week at Travelers, 55,18,MC,5,16 his last five times here, 5th in approach, 31st in ballstriking, 34th in Par 4 scoring, 12th in proximity 125-150 yards, 10th in proximity 150-175 yards, 37th in proximity 200+ yards, 58th in SG: ARG, 34th in putting, 28th in opportunities gained, 11th in birdie+ gained, 23rd in DK points, 15.3% projected ownership

Lanto Griffin: 8200: +4000 – 60th finish his first time here in 2018, MC,MC,51,60,51,6,15 in his last seven events, 12th in approach, 26th in ballstriking, 23rd in Par 4 scoring, 30th in proximity 125-150 yards, 7th in proximity 150-175 yards, 120th in proximity 200+ yards, 139th in SG: ARG, 48th in putting, 7th in opportunities gained, 14th in birdie+ gained, 17th in DK points, 11.4% projected ownership

CT Pan: 8100: +6000 – MC,34 finishes his two times here, MC,53,52,15,29 his last five events, 3rd in approach, 12th in ballstriking, 29th in Par 4 scoring, 51st in proximity 125-150 yards, 41st in proximity 150-175 yards, 55th in proximity 200+ yards, 43rd in SG: ARG, 80th in putting, 13th in opportunities gained, 22nd in birdie+ gained, 36th in DK points, 7.7% projected ownership

John Huh: 7800: +5500 – 50,7,MC,64,50 his last five years here, 13,25,12,MC,MC his last five events, 32nd in approach, 33rd in ballstriking, 20th in Par 4 scoring, 15th in proximity 125-150 yards, 2nd in proximity 150-175 yards, 52nd in proximity 200+ yards, 25th in SG: ARG, 67th in putting, 1st in opportunities gained, 10th in birdie+ gained, 18th in DK points, 15.3% projected ownership

Nick Taylor: 7500: +8000 – 28,33,34,MC,MC,MC his six times here, MC,28,48,MC,15 his last five events, 4th in approach, 9th in ballstriking, 45th in Par 4 scoring, 98th in proximity 125-150 yards, 3rd in proximity 150-175 yards, 38th in proximity 200+ yards, 93rd in SG: ARG, 111th in putting, 14th in opportunities gained, 35th in birdie+ gained, 41st in DK points, 8.7% projected ownership

David Lipsky: 7400: +6600 – first time playing this event but has played well in lower field strength events, MC,MC,37,48,25,MC,6,MC,7,68,26,55 his last 12 events, 6th in approach, 24th in ballstriking, 31st in Par 4 scoring, 41st in proximity 125-150 yards, 132nd in proximity 150-175 yards, 36th in proximity 200+ yards, 90th in SG: ARG, 63rd in putting, 11th in opportunities gained, 9th in birdie+ gained, 2nd in DK points, 10.7% projected ownership

Austin Smotherman: 7000: +10000 – First time playing this event, MC,43,63,25,25 his last five events, 8th in approach, 2nd in ballstriking, 47th in Par 4 scoring, 23rd in proximity 125-150 yards, 30th in proximity 150-175 yards, 3rd in proximity 200+ yards, 147th in SG: ARG, 38th in putting, 3rd in opportunities gained, 24th in birdie+ gained, 39th in DK points, 10.5% projected ownership

Vaughn Taylor: 6800: +15000 – 34,6,34,19,MC,44,48,45 finishes here, 48,73,MC,25,MC,7,55,28,42 finishes this season, 2nd in approach, 29th in ballstriking, 39th in Par 4 scoring, 99th in proximity 125-150 yards, 1st in proximity 150-175 yards, 103rd in proximity 200+ yards, 44th in SG: ARG, 119th in putting, 3rd in opportunities gained, 63rd in birdie+ gained, 76th in DK points, 8.3% projected ownership

Cameron Percy: 6600: +20000 – 11,MC,12,MC,62,MC finishes here, 59,MC,MC,4,MC,7 his last six events with the T10s at Corales and Puerto Rico where there was similar field strength to this week, 10th in approach, 18th in ballstriking, 60th in Par 4 scoring, 35th in proximity 125-150 yards, 42nd in proximity 150-175 yards, 85th in proximity 200+ yards, 80th in SG: ARG, 100th in putting, 29th in opportunities gained, 34th in birdie+ gained, 30th in DK points, 3% projected ownership

Model

Approach (25%)

Ballstriking (10%)

Par 4 scoring (5%)

Proximity 125-150 yards (10%)

Proximity 150-175 yards (10%)

Proximity 200+ yards (5%)

SG: ARG (10%)

Putting (5%)

Opportunities Gained (10%)

Birdie+ Gained (10%)

DK points (0%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

DraftKings/Betting Notes

  • Ownership percentage could play more of a factor due to the ridiculously weak field
  • This could be a good week to catch great numbers live, especially on Thursday and Friday
  • I have a bigger card this week since I have a bunch of longer shots in this shitty field
  • Not bothering to play cash on DK and solely sticking with GPPs this week

Bets

Outrights

.4u Adam Hadwin (+1800)

.2u Scott Stallings (+3300)

.16u Lanto Griffin (+4000)

.1u John Huh (+5500)

.1u CT Pan (+6000)

.1u David Lipsky (+6600)

.08u Nick Taylor (+8000)

.06u Austin Smotherman (+10000)

.04u Vaughn Taylor (+15000)

.04u Cameron Percy (+20000)

T6s

.2u Scott Stallings (+660)

.16u Lanto Griffin (+800)

.1u John Huh (+1100)

.1u CT Pan (+1200)

.1u David Lipsky (+1320)

.08u Nick Taylor (+1600)

.06u Austin Smotherman (+2000)

.04u Vaughn Taylor (+3000)

.04u Cameron Percy (+4000)

DraftKings Lineups

Lineup 1: Adam Hadwin, Scott Stallings, CT Pan, John Huh, Nick Taylor, Vaughn Taylor

Lineup 2: Adam Hadwin, Scott Stallings, Lanto Griffin, John Huh, Nick Taylor, Cameron Percy

Lineup 3: Adam Hadwin, Scott Stallings, Lanto Griffin, Nick Taylor, David Lipsky, Austin Smotherman

Lineup 4: Adam Hadwin, Scott Stallings, Lanto Griffin, CT Pan, David Lipsky, Vaughn Taylor

Lineup 5: Adam Hadwin, Scott Stallings, Lanto Griffin, John Huh, Austin Smotherman, Vaughn Taylor

Lineup 6: Adam Hadwin, Scott Stallings, Lanto Griffin, CT Pan, Austin Smotherman, Cameron Percy

Lineup 7: Adam Hadwin, Scott Stallings, CT Pan, John Huh, David Lipsky, Cameron Percy

Lineup 8: Adam Hadwin, Lanto Griffin, CT Pan, John Huh, Nick Taylor, Austin Smotherman

Contests

$5 – $300k Drive the Green ($50K to 1st) – 71343 entries

$5 – $30k Drive the Green ($5K to 1st) – 7134 entries


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