Course Breakdown

Par 71, 7136 yards, the scoring in this event is highly dependent on weather with wind being the biggest defense on the course, links style course, different setup than a typical Par 71 course with 9 Par 4s, 5 Par 3s and 4 Par 5s, only four holes play alongside the ocean but the course has all of the other elements of a links course, average to above average sized rolling fairways with a good amount of undulation and mounds, fairways play firm and fast, deep fairway pot bunkers that are pretty hard to get out of, first cut of rough isn’t too penal if you just miss the fairway but gets much thicker as you go farther out, a few trees and some high fescue in areas if you miss wildly off the tee, slow fescue greens that can see big inconsistencies in speed from hole to hole, large massively undulating upside bowl shaped greens that should play firm, lots of bot bunkers guarding greens and large runoff areas

Tournament Notes

• This is the first co-sanctioned event by the DP World Tour (European Tour) and PGA Tour
• There are also some LIV Tour players in the field since Ian Poulter won a lawsuit this past week against the DP World Tour to allow them to play
• This will be the fourth year this course has hosted this event for the DP World Tour
• Final event to qualify for The Open

Key Stats

Approach, SG: ARG

Field

140 golfers – fantastic field strength with 9 of the top 10 players in the world (only Rory isn’t playing)

Defending Champion: Min Woo Lee (-18 in playoff)

Runner Up Last Year: Thomas Detry, Matthew Fitzpatrick (-18)

One and Done: Will Zalatoris

One and Done Considerations: Scheffler, JT, Xander, Hideki, Zalatoris

Players

Scottie Scheffler: 11200: +1200 – T12 here last year, 13,2,18,2,MC,15,1,55,1,7,1,20,25 finishes this season, 3rd in approach, 20th in SG: OTT, 23rd in good drives, 19th in sand saves, 3rd in Par 3 scoring, 5th in Par 4 scoring, 3rd in Par 5 scoring, 6th in SG: ARG, 42nd in putting, 11th in opportunities gained, 1st in birdie+ gained, 6th in bogie avoidance

Justin Thomas: 10600: +1200 – T8 here last year and T9 here in 2019, 37,3,MC,1,5,35,8,3,33,6,8,20 finishes this season, 7th in approach, 10th in SG: OTT, 48th in good drives, 8th in sand saves, 34th in Par 3 scoring, 1st in Par 4 scoring, 13th in Par 5 scoring, 16th in SG: ARG, 26th in putting, 2nd in opportunities gained, 7th in birdie+ gained, 5th in bogie avoidance

Xander Schauffele: 9900: +1800 – T10 here last year, won JP McManus Pro-Am this past week after winning Travelers the week before, prior to that 14,18,13,5,MC,12,MC,13,3,34 finishes this season, 4th in approach, 19th in SG: OTT, 1st in good drives, 5th in sand saves, 2nd in Par 3 scoring, 2nd in Par 4 scoring, 49th in Par 5 scoring, 18th in SG: ARG, 31st in putting, 4th in opportunities gained, 5th in birdie+ gained, 4th in bogie avoidance

Will Zalatoris: 9300: +2500 – T26 here last year, 2,5,MC,2,MC,6,26,38,26,2,6 finishes this season, 1st in approach, 4th in SG: OTT, 21st in good drives, 71st in sand saves, 5th in Par 3 scoring, 12th in Par 4 scoring, 9th in Par 5 scoring, 59th in SG: ARG, 115th in putting, 7th in opportunities gained, 6th in birdie+ gained, 10th in bogie avoidance

Hideki Matsuyama: 9000: +3300 – Has never played this event before, 4,60,3,14,20,39,8,3,1 finishes this season, 8th in approach, 32nd in SG: OTT, 51st in good drives, 39th in sand saves, 10th in Par 3 scoring, 7th in Par 4 scoring, 19th in Par 5 scoring, 38th in SG: ARG, 83rd in putting, 5th in opportunities gained, 8th in birdie+ gained, 9th in bogie avoidance

Cameron Young: 8100: +5000 – Has never played this event before, MC,60,3,2,3,MC,MC,13,16,2,26,29,40 finishes this season, 40th in approach, 2nd in SG: OTT, 43rd in good drives, 100th in sand saves, 59th in Par 3 scoring, 6th in Par 4 scoring, 24th in Par 5 scoring, 19th in SG: ARG, 49th in putting, 1st in opportunities gained, 3rd in birdie+ gained, 12th in bogie avoidance

Max Homa: 8000: +5000 – Has never played this event before, 47,5,23,13,1,48,13,17,10,14,MC finishes this season, 5th in approach, 14th in SG: OTT, 77th in good drives, 27th in sand saves, 18th in Par 3 scoring, 25th in Par 4 scoring, 7th in Par 5 scoring, 76th in SG: ARG, 10th in putting, 27th in opportunities gained, 12th in birdie+ gained, 23rd in bogie avoidance

Mito Pereira: 7700: +6600 – Has never played this event before, MC,MC,13,7,3(blown PGA Championship),17,26,13,26 his last nine events, 10th in approach, 3rd in SG: OTT, 2nd in good drives, 106th in sand saves, 26th in Par 3 scoring, 34th in Par 4 scoring, 12th in Par 5 scoring, 39th in SG: ARG, 99th in putting, 2nd in opportunities gained, 19th in birdie+ gained, 29th in bogie avoidance

Model

Approach (20%)

SG: OTT (10%)

Good Drives (5%)

Sand Saves (5%)

Par 3 Scoring (5%)

Par 4 Scoring (5%)

Par 5 Scoring (5%)

SG: ARG (15%)

Putting (5%)

Opportunities Gained (5%)

Birdie+ Gained (10%)

Bogie Avoidance (10%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

Bets

Outrights

.5u Scottie Scheffler (+1200)

.5u Justin Thomas (+1200)

.34u Xander Schauffele (+1800)

.24u Will Zalatoris (+2500)

.2u Hideki Matsuyama (+3300)

.16u Cameron Young (+5000)

.16u Max Homa (+5000)

.16u Lucas Hebert (+5000) – note, I bet this by accident trying to click Max Homa and can’t cash it out, so no choice but to just let it ride, wouldn’t recommend betting it

.1u Mito Pereira (+6600)

T6s

.24u Will Zalatoris (+500)

.2u Hideki Matsuyama (+660)

.16u Cameron Young (+1000)

.16u Max Homa (+1000)

.16u Lucas Hebert (+5000) – note, I bet this by accident trying to click Max Homa and can’t cash it out, so no choice but to just let it ride, wouldn’t recommend betting it

.1u Mito Pereira (+1320)

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