3M Open – Gambling/DFS Preview 2022

TPC Twin Cities – Minneapolis, MN

Course Breakdown

Par 71, 7431 yards, designed by Arnold Palmer and Tom Lehman, altitude above sea level so shots will go farther than normal, lot of tee boxes so the length of the course could be adjusted easily from round to round, very easy course, was a birdiefest on the Sr. Tour (average winning score of -21) which continued on the PGA, 3 of the Par 3’s are over 200 yards, ton of water here with 27 water hazards (in play on 15 holes), 72 bunkers on the course, wide tree lined fairways around an average of 36 yards, weird fescue if you miss wildly off the tee and miss the water, only 2.5 inch regular rough that isn’t penal, bunkers in the landing zones and water in play on a lot of holes, trees aren’t bunched up with a lot of room between the trees and fairway, above average size greens, run off area only on the front of most greens, bunkers, water and some rough surrounding the greens, pure bent grass greens (only Colonial and Augusta have that), better than tour average driving accuracy (~64% vs. 62%), better than tour average GIR % (~73% vs. 66%), longer than tour average driving distance (~291 vs. 283 yds), wind could make the course a bit tougher but its still pretty easy to score on

Tournament Notes

  • Only the fourth year that this tournament has existed
  • Formerly this course hosted the 3M Championship on the Champions Tour
  • SG: ARG has barely any impact whatsoever on finishes here
  • Every golfer with a T10 finish here the last three years has gained on both approach and SG: T2G
  • In 2019, 8 of the 12 golfers that finished T10 gained at least 2.2 SG: OTT (all but one gained in SG: OTT). In 2020, 9 of the 11 golfers that finished T10 gained in SG: OTT. In 2021, 10 of the 11 golfers that finished T10 gained in SG: OTT (Brian Stuard lost 0.3 strokes)
  • In 2019 and 2020, everyone that finished T10 had at least 19 birdies or better for the tournament. In 2021, the 11 golfers that finished T10, had at least 15 (6 of those 11 had at least 19) and played a bit more difficult with windier conditions.
  • In 2019, the 12 golfers that finished T10 averaged 23 birdies or better and all were -16 or better and there were only 3 double bogies or worse
  • In 2019, 8 of the 12 golfers that finished T10 shot -7 or better on the Par 4s and only Sam Burns and Troy Merritt shot worse than -5

Key Stats

Approach, SG: OTT, Par 4 Scoring

Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yds (24.8%), 175-200 yds (20%)

Corollary Courses

PGA National (The Honda Classic) – Crossover success, has a ton of water and along with PGA National, this course has the most approach shots on Tour between 175-200 yds

Field

148 golfers – Pretty weak field strength the week after The Open Championship and the better players that used to play this event are now on the LIV Tour (Bryson, Dustin, Louis, Wolff)

Defending Champion: Cameron Champ (-15)

Runner Up Last Year: Louis Oosthuizen, Charl Schwartzel, Jhonattan Vegas (-13)

One and Done: Tony Finau

One and Done Considerations: Tony Finau, Hideki Matsuyama

Players

Tony Finau: 10500: +1300 – 28,3,23 finishes here the last three years, 28,13,MC,2,4 finishes his last five events, 2nd in approach, 5th in SG: OTT, 10th in good drives, 1st in Par 4 scoring, 1st in Par 5 scoring, 84th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 42nd in proximity 200+ yards, 15th in proximity 175-200 yards, 31st in SG: ARG, 33rd in putting, 12th in opportunities gained, 6th in birdie+ gained, 2nd in DK points, rarely ever wins so the price is tough to bet at +1300, but I’ll still take a shot here on the outright in this weak of a field, not enough value to each way it though

Adam Hadwin: 9600: +2500 – T6s in both his times he played this event with a 6th here last year and 4th here in 2019, MC,7,35,18,71,MC,26,4,7,9 his last ten events, 25th in approach, 53rd in SG: OTT, 50th in good drives, 10th in Par 4 scoring, 20th in Par 5 scoring, 19th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 96th in proximity 200+ yards, 23rd in proximity 175-200 yards, 2nd in SG: ARG, 75th in putting, 14th in opportunities gained, 5th in birdie+ gained, 6th in DK points

Davis Riley: 9000: +2200 – First time playing this event, 64,31,13,4,13,9,5,MC,63,2 finishes his last ten events, 31st in approach, 8th in SG: OTT, 22nd in good drives, 5th in Par 4 scoring, 16th in Par 5 scoring, 73rd in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 38th in proximity 200+ yards, 73rd in proximity 175-200 yards, 34th in SG: ARG, 18th in putting, 10th in opportunities gained, 1st in birdie+ gained, 1st in DK points

Brendan Steele: 8300: +3300 – 53rd here in 2019, 25,10,9,51,48,13,26 finishes in his last seven events, 8th in approach, 1st in SG: OTT, 2nd in good drives, 17th in Par 4 scoring, 71st in Par 5 scoring, 23rd in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 8th in proximity 200+ yards, 4th in proximity 175-200 yards, 98th in SG: ARG, 140th in putting, 9th in opportunities gained, 93rd in birdie+ gained, 40th in DK points

Adam Svensson: 7600: +3500 – Finished 15th here in 2019, 6,24,25,21,45,40,69 finishes his last seven events, 7th in approach, 45th in SG: OTT, 46th in good drives, 18th in Par 4 scoring, 30th in Par 5 scoring, 26th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 114th in proximity 200+ yards, 17th in proximity 175-200 yards, 103rd in SG: ARG, 13th in putting, 19th in opportunities gained, 2nd in birdie+ gained, 5th in DK points

Matthew NeSmith: 7500: +4500 – MC here both times here the last two years, MC,19,37,37,57,51,31,12,MC,3 finishes his last ten events, 4th in approach, 15th in SG: OTT, 6th in good drives, 37th in Par 4 scoring, 3rd in Par 5 scoring, 79th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 58th in proximity 200+ yards, 6th in proximity 175-200 yards, 55th in SG: ARG, 95th in putting, 40th in opportunities gained, 42nd in birdie+ gained, 44th in DK points

Nate Lashley: 7000: +10000 – MC both times here in 2019 and last year, MC,25,MC,MC,17,11,MC,18,15,27,7 his last eleven events, 36th in approach, 48th in SG: OTT, 4th in good drives, 16th in Par 4 scoring, 62nd in Par 5 scoring, 18th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 25th in proximity 200+ yards, 21st in proximity 175-200 yards, 57th in SG: ARG, 49th in putting, 34th in opportunities gained, 12th in birdie+ gained, 9th in DK points

Model

Approach (20%)

SG: OTT (10%)

Good Drives (5%)

Par 4 Scoring (10%)

Par 5 Scoring (5%)

Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards (5%)

Proximity 200+ yards (10%)

Proximity 175-200 yards (5%)

SG: ARG (5%)

Putting (5%)

Opportunities Gained (10%)

Birdie+ Gained (10%)

DK Points (0%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

DraftKings/Betting Notes

  • Crazy pricing on DraftKings this week with only 7 golfers priced over $9000, with a lot of value in the 7k range

Bets

Outrights

.5u Tony Finau (+1300)

.28u Davis Riley (+2200)

.24u Adam Hadwin (+2500)

.2u Brendan Steele (+3300)

.18u Adam Svensson (+3500)

.14u Matthew NeSmith (+4500)

.06u Nate Lashley (+10000)

T6s

.28u Davis Riley (+440)

.24u Adam Hadwin (+500)

.2u Brendan Steele (+660)

.18u Adam Svensson (+700)

.14u Matthew NeSmith (+900)

.06u Nate Lashley (+2000)

DraftKings Lineups

Lineup 1: Finau, Riley, Steele, Svensson, NeSmith, Lashley

Lineup 2: Hadwin, Riley, Steele, Svensson, NeSmith, Lashley

Contests:

$5 GPP (50k to 1st) (83,234 players)

$10 Single Entry Double Up


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