After a bye week followed by All Star Weekend, we’re back with Week 7 of the PLL season in Fairfield, CT. I finally got a winning week in Week 5, going 3-2 to win 0.86 units as I swept Friday night’s games. Let’s build on that with more winners this weekend!
These games this week might be a bit tougher than they already are to figure out since none of these teams have played any lacrosse in a few weeks.
Redwoods vs. Atlas (7/23 5:00)
This is a pretty big mismatch this week between the 1-4 Redwoods and the 4-1 Atlas. The Atlas have been one of the best teams in the PLL this season and their offense lead by Jeff Teat has been electric with the Atlas leading the league in scoring with an average of 13.2 scores per game. They’ve been very good defensively as well, allowing just 10.6 scores per game but the key factor to the Atlas wins are possessions. Trevor Baptiste has been incredible, winning 72% of his face offs and being able to possess the ball has been crucial in them to hold leads and close out their wins. The Redwoods on the other hand have really struggled this year. They haven’t been able to get it going offensively with the lowest scoring offense in the league, averaging only 9 scores per game. The Woods haven’t been much better defensively, allowing the third most scores in the league, an average of 11.6 per game. These teams already played once this season, with the Atlas blowing out the Redwoods 17-11 on opening weekend. I’d expect them to do the same again tonight. I’ll lay the juice here with 1.5 units on the ML at the pricy -200 and half a unit on the goal line, laying the -2.5 at + money.
Whipsnakes vs. Chaos (7/23 7:30)
The Whipsnakes took their first loss of the season going into the break with an 11-10 loss to the Waterdogs. The Whips have been good this season, coming into tonight’s game with a 4-1 record, grinding out comeback wins after being down at halftime in every game this season. They’re averaging 11 scores per game while allowing the fewest scores in the PLL, an average of only 10 per game. Tonight they take on the Chaos again, who beat them in last season’s championship game. The Chaos went into the break with their first win of the season, beating the Cannons 13-11 in Minnesota. They’ve sucked this season at only 1-4 and although they got most of their roster back after the NLL Championship, that didn’t seem to help them much. The defending champs have struggled on both ends of the field with the worst goal differential (-17) in the league. They’re scoring only the second fewest goals in the league, averaging just 9.8 scores per game and despite having the defending goalie of the year in Blaze Riorden in between the pipes, they’ve allowed the second most scores in the league, an average of 13.2 per game. These teams played their championship rematch already this season in Week 1, with the Whips getting their revenge with a 9-8 victory. I’d expect them to win again here tonight and will take the Whipsnakes ML for a unit.
Cannons vs. Archers (7/24 2:00)
As expecting coming into the season, the Archers have been pretty good. They’re 3-2 coming into this weekend’s game sitting in 4th place, a game behind the Atlas, Chrome and Whipsnakes. Their offense has been incredible, leading the PLL with an average of 13.2 scores per game. Defensively they haven’t been bad either, allowing an average of 10.2 scores per game. This week they face off against Lyle Thompson and his 1-4 Cannons again. The Cannons haven’t been terrible offensively, averaging 11 scores per game They’ve been horrendous defensively and the worst team in the PLL in that category by a significant margin, allowing an average of 14.2 scores per game. These teams played in Week 3 this season, with the Archers blowing out the Cannons 20-9. I’d expect another win for them. I’ll lay the heavy juice on the Archers with a half unit each on the ML and -2.5 goal line to reduce some juice. Along with that I like the over, which I’ll take for half a unit. The Archers offense should feast on a weak Cannons defense again and I think the Cannons contribute enough scoring to push this game over the 24.5.
Chrome vs. Waterdogs (7/24 4:30)
The Chrome are the shocker of this PLL season going from last place and the only team to miss the playoffs last year to being tied for first place this year with a 4-1 record. Their young, new look offense has been great, averaging 13 scores per game. They’ve been good defensively as well, allowing an average of 10.4 scores per game. The milk man, Connor Farrell has done a huge job in getting those wins, dominating face offs with a 61% win percentage to get the key possessions the Chrome have needed this season. The Waterdogs are 2-3, coming into this week’s game off big back to back wins in Weeks 4 and 5 against the Chaos and Whipsnakes. They’re a pretty average team to me, both scoring and allowing an average of 12.8 scores per game. These teams played in Week 3 with a 17-14 Chrome win in one of the best games of the year on Long Island. The Chrome were down 14-11 with 6:43 left in the fourth quarter before rattling off six unanswered goals in a row to get the win. Hopefully this game is just as good this weekend. I’d lean the Chrome win here and will take them for half a unit in what I expect to be a close game. I will take the over as well for half a unit.
1.5u Atlas ML (-200)
.5u Atlas -2.5 (+120)
1u Whipsnakes (-155)
.5u Archers ML (-210)
.5u Archers -2.5 (+110)
.5u Archers/Cannons over 24.5 (-110)
.5u Chrome ML (-148)
.5u Chrome/Waterdogs over 24.5 (-113)
Record: 13–12 (-4.28)
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