Rocket Mortgage Classic – Gambling/DFS Preview 2022

Detroit Golf Club – Detroit, MI

Course Breakdown

Par 72, 7370 yards, flattest course on tour so this should play very true to the yardage, 4 of the Par 4s under 400 yds, 4 of the Par 4s over 450 yds, 2 of the Par 3s over 200 yds, 2 of the Par 5s are reachable by most of the field with another one reachable by some, Donald Ross designed course, birdiefest, tree lined fairways, fairway bunkers in the landing zones, undulating fairways and greens, less than driver on about half of holes but most guys still bomb it and average drives here were 13 yards longer than average mitigating any advantage of driving it long, third longest average driving distance on tour (~293 yards vs. 283 yards tour average) since there is a ton of roll after it gets burned out, mainly straight holes (not many doglegs on Donald Ross designs), slightly below average fairway widths, easier to hit fairways than tour average (66% vs. 62% tour average), 3.5-4 inch rough which hasn’t really been penal at all, missing wildly off the tee could lead to approach shots over trees from nice lies on other fairways and should be easy for these guys to hit in most spots, barely less than average sized greens, easy to hit greens (72% GIR vs. tour average 66%), bunkers surrounding the greens, greens slope heavily from back to front with heavy undulation, Bluegrass greens (mix of mostly POA with around 20% bentgrass), some of the most birdies and eagles here of any courses on tour

Tournament Notes

  • 2019 was the first year that this tournament was held, replacing the Quicken Loans National and was the first PGA event at Detroit Golf Club
  • Everyone in the T20 in 2019 here gained strokes putting. Putting matters here but its the one stat thats so variable that its not worth even looking at on a week to week basis. This is pretty much a putting contest since its a very easy course
  • In 2020, of the top 16 guys in SG: OTT they all made the cut besides Bubba and the rest of them besides Kevin Chappell (T62) finished in the T30
  • Even with very high winds last year, the winning score was still -18 and more than half the golfers that made the cut still finished -10 or better

Key Stats

Approach, SG: OTT, Birdie+ Gained, Opportunities Gained

Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yards (20.9%), 125-150 yards (18.9%), 150-175 yards. (18.6%)

Corollary Courses

East Lake Golf Club (Tour Championship), Sedgefield Country Club (Wyndham Championship) – both similar Donald Ross design courses

Field

150 golfers – Pretty weak field strength, similar to the 3M last week

Defending Champion: Cameron Davis (-18 in playoff)

Runner Up Last Year: Troy Merritt, Joaquin Niemann (-18 in playoff)

One and Done: Max Homa

One and Done Considerations: Zalatoris, Homa

Players

Will Zalatoris: 10400: +1600 – 77th here last year, 28,MC,2,5,MC,2,MC,6,26,38,26,2,6 finishes this season, 1st in approach, 3rd in SG: OTT, 1st in proximity 200+ yards, 53rd in proximity 125-150 yards, 6th in proximity 150-175 yards, 18th in Par 3 scoring, 2nd in Par 4 scoring, 9th in Par 5 scoring, 56th in SG: ARG, 112th in putting, 2nd in opportunities gained, 1st in birdie+ gained

Max Homa: 9900: +2000 – T25 here last year and T42 here in 2019, MC,16,47,5,23,13,1,48,13,17,10,14,MC finishes this season, 4th in approach, 8th in SG: OTT, 22nd in proximity 200+ yards, 76th in proximity 125-150 yards, 2nd in proximity 150-175 yards, 38th in Par 3 scoring, 6th in Par 4 scoring, 3rd in Par 5 scoring, 64th in SG: ARG, 9th in putting, 24th in opportunities gained, 12th in birdie+ gained

Cameron Davis: 9700: +3300 – Defending champion after missing the cut here in both 2020 and 2019, 16,8,56,53,7,48,MC,3,46,MC,MC,48,MC,56,27 finishes this season, 6th in approach, 44th in SG: OTT, 16th in proximity 200+ yards, 39th in proximity 125-150 yards, 89th in proximity 150-175 yards, 3rd in Par 3 scoring, 70th in Par 4 scoring, 16th in Par 5 scoring, 84th in SG: ARG, 47th in putting, 9th in opportunities gained, 14th in birdie+ gained

Keegan Bradley: 9200: +3300 – T14 here last year and T45 here in 2020, MC,MC,19,7,37,48,2,8,MC,5,11,48,26,65,12 finishes this season, 18th in approach, 17th in SG: OTT, 35th in proximity 200+ yards, 64th in proximity 125-150 yards, 18th in proximity 150-175 yards, 2nd in Par 3 scoring, 8th in Par 4 scoring, 15th in Par 5 scoring, 33rd in SG: ARG, 18th in putting, 16th in opportunities gained, 10th in birdie+ gained

Davis Riley: 8600: +3500 – First time playing this event, MC,64,31,13,4,13,9,5,MC,62,2 finishes his last eleven events, 30th in approach, 12th in SG: OTT, 40th in proximity 200+ yards, 66th in proximity 125-150 yards, 86th in proximity 150-175 yards, 58th in Par 3 scoring, 13th in Par 4 scoring, 23rd in Par 5 scoring, 41st in SG: ARG, 35th in putting, 18th in opportunities gained, 8th in birdie+ gained

Chris Gotterup: 7400: +8000 – First time playing this event, 31,MC,4,35,43,MC,7 finishes this season since coming up to the PGA Tour, 10th in approach, 53rd in SG: OTT, 59th in proximity 200+ yards, 90th in proximity 125-150 yards, 72nd in proximity 150-175 yards, 15th in Par 3 scoring, 43rd in Par 4 scoring, 24th in Par 5 scoring, 86th in SG: ARG, 63rd in putting, 7th in opportunities gained, 29th in birdie+ gained

Model

Approach (20%)

SG: OTT (15%)

Proximity 200+ yards (5%)

Proximity 125-150 yards (5%)

Proximity 150-175 yards (5%)

Par 3 Scoring (5%)

Par 4 Scoring (5%)

Par 5 Scoring (5%)

SG: ARG (5%)

Putting (10%)

Opportunities Gained (10%)

Birdie+ Gained (10%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

Bets

Outrights

.4u Will Zalatoris (+1600)

.3u Max Homa (+2000)

.2u Cameron Davis (+3300)

.2u Keegan Bradley (+3300)

.18u Davis Riley (+3500)

.08u Chris Gotterup (+8000)

T6s

.3u Max Homa (+400)

.2u Cameron Davis (+660)

.2u Keegan Bradley (+660)

.18u Davis Riley (+700)

.08u Chris Gotterup (+1600)


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