FedEx St. Jude Championship – Gambling/DFS Preview 2022

TPC Southwind – Memphis, Tennessee

Course Breakdown

Par 70, 7244 yards, plays significantly longer with the way that the course is set up, one of the top 15 hardest courses on tour every year, 7 of the Par 4s are over 450 yds, both Par 5s are reachable, most balls in the water (in play on 10 holes) of any course on tour by a substantial amount (almost 1400 more than the next which is TPC Sawgrass), back 9 is very difficult, holes 17 and 18 here see over 200 bogies or worse through the week, driving accuracy is way lower than tour average (56% vs. 62%), lower GIR % than tour average (60% vs. 66%), driving distance here is 4 yards longer on average than tour average (286 vs. 282 yards), narrow and very difficult to hit Zoysia grass fairways, trees, bunkers and water in play if you miss the fairway, Bermuda rough which is hard to judge distance out of but it isn’t too thick or tall, both GIR and proximity sharply decline from the rough, smaller than average Bermuda greens surrounded by bunkers and water, top 5 easiest putting greens on Tour, third highest one putt % on tour, fourth lowest 3 putt % on tour, fast (12 on stimpmeter), firm and undulating greens, hot and humid weather here could play a factor

Tournament Notes

  • First of the 3 events of the FedEx Cup Playoffs, replacing The Northern Trust
  • Final tournament of the PGA season with a regular cut, with a reduced field with no cut next week at the BMW Championship as the Top 70 in FedEx Cup points after this week will advance to the BMW Championship
  • This course and event used to be a WGC no cut event from 2019-2021 with the best players in the world and prior to that was the St. Jude Classic, a much weaker field event during the regular season
  • Prior when this course hosted this event as a WGC, a lot of the top end players historically didn’t play this course much so course history may not be as helpful as in other events due to the difference in field strength and format throughout the years
  • SG: Approach is historically 2.5x times more important than SG: OTT here
  • The player that ended the week 1st in SG: T2G here won the event 7 of the last 10 years (Ancer last year was fourth)
  • The opening event of the FedEx Cup Playoffs has been won by a player in the T25 OWGR 13/16 times
  • 4 of the last 7 winners of the opening playoff event had a victory already in the calendar year that they won
  • 5 of the last 7 winners of the opening playoff event entered the week in the T10 of the FedEx Cup standings
  • 7 of the last 11 winners of the opening playoff event finished T22 in their previous start before winning and were in good form coming into this tournament

Key Stats

Approach, Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, GIR Gained

Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 yards (25.9%)

Field

121 golfers – strongest field strength non-major of the season with all of the top 125 eligible golfers in the FedEx Cup points besides Tommy Fleetwood, Daniel Berger, Hideki Matsuyama and Lanto Griffin

Last Year Champion (WGC St. Jude): Abraham Ancer (-16 in playoff)

Runner Up Here Last Year (WGC St. Jude): Sam Burns, Hideki Matsuyama (-16)

Defending Champion (The Northern Trust): Tony Finau

One and Done: Cameron Young

One and Done Considerations: Any elite golfer you have left (mine doesn’t matter whatsoever, way outside of the money without enough events left to get in)

Players

Rory McIlroy: 11000: +1000 – The best player on the PGA Tour and he’s won a FedEx Cup before, 12,47,4,6,7 finishes his five times here (the last four in the WGCs), 3,19,5,1,18,8,5,2 finishes in his last eight events, 4th in approach, 13th in SG: OTT, 101th in fairways gained, 2nd in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 40th in proximity 150-175 yards, 6th in GIRs gained, 41st in SG: ARG, 34th in putting, 9th in opportunities gained, 1st in birdie+ gained, 1st in bogie avoidance

Justin Thomas: 10200: +2000 – Two wins here since 2018 both in WGCs with 26,1,12,1 finishes the last four years, 53,MC,37,3,MC,1,5,35,8,3,33,6,8,20 finishes this season, 15th in approach, 19th in SG: OTT, 98th in fairways gained, 25th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 16th in proximity 150-175 yards, 25th in GIRs gained, 20th in SG: ARG, 14th in putting, 13th in opportunities gained, 12th in birdie+ gained, 36th in bogie avoidance

Tony Finau: 9700: +2000 – Coming in off back to back wins, 34,65,27,10 finishes here the last four years, 1,1,28,13,MC,2,4 finishes in his last seven events, 2nd in approach, 4th in SG: OTT, 42nd in fairways gained, 1st in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 32nd in proximity 150-175 yards, 2nd in GIRs gained, 3rd in SG: ARG, 18th in putting, 8th in opportunities gained, 2nd in birdie+ gained, 2nd in bogie avoidance

Will Zalatoris: 9500: +2200 – Has to break through with a win eventually and this course maps out great for him, finished 8th here last year, 21,20,28,MC,2,5,MC,2,MC,6 finishes in his last ten events, 19th in approach, 14th in SG: OTT, 66th in fairways gained, 10th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 13th in proximity 150-175 yards, 28th in GIRs gained, 55th in SG: ARG, 98th in putting, 10th in opportunities gained, 6th in birdie+ gained, 63rd in bogie avoidance

Sam Burns: 8600: +3000 – Lost in the playoff here last year, 42,66,MC,27,4,1,20 finishes in his last seven events, 8th in approach, 67th in SG: OTT, 117th in fairways gained, 10th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 22nd in proximity 150-175 yards, 29th in GIRs gained, 56th in SG: ARG, 5th in putting, 55th in opportunities gained, 11th in birdie+ gained, 56th in bogie avoidance

Sungjae Im: 8500: +3300 – Coming in off back to back second place finishes, 46,35 finishes here the last two years, 2,2,81,MC,MC,10,15,21,8 finishes his last nine events, 22nd in approach, 7th in SG: OTT, 10th in fairways gained, 35th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 42nd in proximity 150-175 yards, 13th in GIRs gained, 11th in SG: ARG, 70th in putting, 15th in opportunities gained, 68th in birdie+ gained, 26th in bogie avoidance

Corey Conners: 7600: +5000 – Way too cheap for his value here especially as a DFS play, 36,30,26,68 his last four years here (last 3 of those in WGCs), 21,28,61,MC,6,13,MC,21,12,6 finishes his last ten events, 37th in approach, 10th in SG: OTT, 5th in fairways gained, 42nd in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 109th in proximity 150-175 yards, 6th in GIRs gained, 86th in SG: ARG, 53rd in putting, 18th in opportunities gained, 49th in birdie+ gained, 23rd in bogie avoidance

Model

Approach (20%)

SG: OTT (5%)

Fairways Gained (5%)

Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards (15%)

Proximity 150-175 yards (10%)

GIRs Gained (10%)

SG: ARG (5%)

Putting (5%)

Opportunities Gained (10%)

Birdie+ Gained (5%)

Bogie Avoidance (10%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

Bets

Outrights

.6u Rory McIlroy (+1000)

.3u Justin Thomas (+2000)

.3u Tony Finau (+2000)

.3u Will Zalatoris (+2200)

.2u Sam Burns (+3000)

.2u Sungjae Im (+3300)

.12u Corey Conners (+5000)

T6s

.3u Tony Finau (+400)

.3u Will Zalatoris (+440)

.2u Sam Burns (+600)

.2u Sungjae Im (+660)

.12u Corey Conners (+1000)


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