BMW Championship – Gambling/DFS Preview 2022

Wilmington Country Club – Wilmington, DE

Course Breakdown

Par 71, 7534 yards, Robert Trent Jones design, should play shorter than the actual yardage of the course with two of the Par 5s playing over 600 yards and three of the Par 3s are over 200 yards, 8 of the Par 4s range from 390-450 yards, tree lined narrow fairways with the tree line 10-20 yards from the edge of the fairway, 4 inch thick blue grass rough which is much easier to control spin and distance out of compared to bermuda so it shouldn’t be too penal, 91 bunkers, water in play on four holes, huge bentgrass greens that are fast and undulating, guarded by a ton of green side bunkers with run off areas on a few holes

Tournament Notes

  • Second leg of the FedEx Cup Players
  • After this week, the Top 30 in FedEx Cup points standings go onto the Tour Championship at East Lake with staggered starting strokes based on place in standings
  • New course, never seen before in professional golf play
  • No cut event
  • Besides 2020 when Jon Rahm won in a playoff at -4 at Olympia Fields, the winning score for the BMW Championship has been -20 or lower every year since 2015 played on a different course every year

Key Stats

Approach, SG: OTT, Birdie+ Gained

Corollary Courses

  • Firestone CC (WGC Bridgestone Invitational)

Field

68 golfers – Fantastic field strength with the top 70 golfers in FedEx Cup Standings besides Cam Smith and Tommy Fleetwood

Defending Champion (Caves Valley Golf Club): Patrick Cantlay

Runner Up Last Year (Caves Valley Golf Club): Bryson DeChambeau

One and Done: Collin Morikawa

One and Done Considerations: Best players in the field, all of which I already used up but it doesn’t matter anyway since I’ve been mathematically eliminated for weeks. If you’re in contention, my pick at this point doesn’t matter for you.

Players

Justin Thomas: 10100: +1600 – Won this event in 2019, 13,53,MC,37,3,MC,1,5,35,8,3 in his last eleven events, 18th in approach, 13th in SG: OTT, 9th in driving distance, 12th in Par 4 scoring, 23rd in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 23rd in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 5th in SG: ARG, 18th in putting, 14th in 3 putt avoidance, 3rd in opportunities gained, 9th in birdie+ gained

Will Zalatoris: 10000: +1600 – Coming off his first win ever last week at St. Jude and I hit the winner on it and I’m still going to keep riding him, 1,21,20,28,MC,2,5,MC,2,MC, 6 finishes in his last eleven events, 4th in approach, 7th in SG: OTT, 10th in driving distance, 4th in Par 4 scoring, 43rd in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 60th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 57th in SG: ARG, 51st in putting, 10th in 3 putt avoidance, 2nd in opportunities gained, 2nd in birdie+ gained

Tony Finau: 9700: +1600 – The hottest golfer in the world right now statistically and first in my model this week, 5,1,1,28,13,MC,2,4 finishes in his last eight events, 3rd in approach, 4th in SG: OTT, 14th in driving distance, 1st in Par 4 scoring, 1st in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 53rd in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 2nd in SG: ARG, 15th in putting, 3rd in 3 putt avoidance, 8th in opportunities gained, 4th in birdie+ gained

Matthew Fitzpatrick: 9500: +1600 – having the best statistical season of his career, 5,21,6,1,10,MC,5,2,MC,14,5,2,MC,14,5,MC,9,10,6 finishes this season, 46th in approach, 8th in SG: OTT, 20th in driving distance, 3rd in Par 4 scoring, 8th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 1st in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 8th in SG: ARG, 19th in putting, 36th in 3 putt avoidance, 53rd in opportunities gained, 23rd in birdie+ gained

Cameron Young: 8900: +2500 – 31,2,2,MC,MC,60,3,2,3 in his last nine events, bombs the ball which should make his approach shots easier, 43rd in approach, 2nd in SG: OTT, 2nd in driving distance, 6th in Par 4 scoring, 29th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 34th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 6th in SG: ARG, 56th in putting, 27th in 3 putt avoidance, 16th in opportunities gained, 10th in birdie+ gained

Cameron Davis: 7600: +5000 – 13,14,16,8 finishes in his last four events, 20th in approach, 30th in SG: OTT, 12th in driving distance, 33rd in Par 4 scoring, 55th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 35th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 38th in SG: ARG, 27th in putting, 4th in 3 putt avoidance, 6th in opportunities gained, 11th in birdie+ gained

Model

Approach (25%)

SG: OTT (10%)

Driving Distance (5%)

Par 4 Scoring (10%)

Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards (5%)

Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards (5%)

SG: ARG (5%)

Putting (5%)

3 Putt Avoidance (10%)

Opportunities Gained (10%)

Birdie+ Gained (10%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

DraftKings/Betting Notes

  • I’m not playing DFS this week with the limited field and no cut event
  • The betting odds this week are actually much better than I expected them to be with the reduced field and I think T6 each ways this week with a field of only 68 golfers has immense value, which is why I’m betting a few bigger favorites of Zalatoris and Fitz on the each ways where usually I never do each ways on guys that are inside +2000 (this wasn’t worth it on JT and Finau at their prices, got the outright on enhanced odds)

Bets

Outrights

.4u Justin Thomas (+1600)

.4u Tony Finau (+1600)

.4u Will Zalatoris (+1600)

.4u Matthew Fitzpatrick (+1600)

.24u Cameron Young (+2500)

.12u Cameron Davis (+5000)

T6s

.4u Will Zalatoris (+320)

.4u Matthew Fitzpatrick (+320)

.24u Cameron Young (+500)

.12u Cameron Davis (+1000)


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