Tour Championship – Gambling/DFS Preview 2022

East Lake Golf Club – Atlanta, GA

Course Breakdown

Par 70, 7346 yds, Donald Ross designed course with Reese Jones redesign (1994), both Par 5’s are reachable but if the prevailing winds shift (usually the wind is to the golfer’s back) the 18th hole will be tougher to hit by shorter hitters, all 4 Par 3s are difficult with 3 of them being over 200 yds (the other is 193 yds), 5 of the Par 4s are over 450 yds and 5 of them are between 400-450, fairly narrow tree lined fairways, large bunkers in play at the landing zones, rough is thick and penal (less than 50% of approach shots fro the rough hit the green), toughest fairways to hit on tour (10% harder than tour average, 55% vs. 62%), average driving distance longer than tour average (291 vs. 282), very fast Bermuda greens, firmness all depends on weather conditions, wide variety of large multi-tiered greens with a lot of slope and smaller greens with a lot of back to front slope, need to hit certain spots on greens for realistic birdie chances, greenside bunkers in play on most holes with a majority of them guarding the very front of the greens, lot of prevailing winds here

Tournament Notes

  • Final event of the FedEx Cup Playoffs and the PGA Tour season
  • New format started three years ago with the starting strokes for the tournament based on FedEx Cup standings. Win this tournament, win the FedEx Cup and $15 Million
  • Average winning score here is around -10, so that almost completely takes out anyone starting around -2 and E but golfers could catch up or drop pretty quickly
  • Since 2012, the average finish of golfers that finish T3 here in the prior 3 playoff events is 26th, so current form matters, almost 60% of which had 0 T5s in those 3 playoff events.
  • Some not elite players pop here

Key Stats

SG: Approach, GIR Gained, Par 4 Scoring

Corollary Courses

Sedgefield Country Club (Wyndham Championship) – Donald Ross design with some crossover success especially on players that aren’t long off the tee

Field

29 golfers – Top 30 in FedEx Cup standings beside Will Zalatoris (WD due to injury)

Defending Champion: Patrick Cantlay (-21)

Runner Up Last Year: Jon Rahm (-20)

Lowest score relative to Par last year: Jon Rahm, Kevin Na (-14)

Players

Xander Schauffele: 12300: +700 (with starting strokes), +900 (without starting strokes) – Starting in 3rd (-6), won here in 2017 but didn’t win the FedEx Cup with the old format of this event, runner up here in 2019 and 2020, lowest 72 hole score in 2020, has never finished worst than 7th at East Lake in his six times here, 5,2,2,7,1 finishes his last five years here, 3,57,15,1,1,14,18,13,5,MC,12,MC,13,3,34 finishes this season, 8th in approach, 19th in SG: OTT, 11th in fairways gained, 5th in Par 4 scoring, 16th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 13th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 3rd in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 17th in SG: ARG, 9th in putting, 16th in opportunities gained, 4th in GIRs gained, 5th in birdie+ gained, 4th in bogie avoidance

Cameron Smith: 10400: +2200 (with starting strokes), +1400 (without starting strokes) – Starting in T5 (-4), didn’t play last week, making birdie or better 38.3% of the time he hits GIR this season with is a PGA record since 1980, missed last week “due to injury” (cause he’s going to the LIV Tour), 14,24,20 finishes his three times here (2021,2020,2018), 13,1,10,MC,48,13,13,MC,3,1 his last ten events, 3rd in approach, 28th in SG: OTT, 23rd in fairways gained, 13th in Par 4 scoring, 14th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 19th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 10th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 16th in SG: ARG, 15th in putting, 11th in opportunities gained, 19th in GIRs gained, 13th in birdie+ gained, 15th in bogie avoidance

Tony Finau: 9600: +2000 (with starting strokes), +1400 (without starting strokes) – Starting in T5 (-4), hasn’t been great during the playoffs but comes into this as one of the top guys in recent form, 11,17,7,15,7 here in the last five years (never missed in that span), 28,5,1,1,28,13,MC,2,4 finishes his last nine events, 2nd in approach, 5th in SG: OTT, 15th in fairways gained, 1st in Par 4 scoring, 1st in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 1st in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 18th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 7th in SG: ARG, 2nd in putting, 9th in opportunities gained, 1st in GIRs gained, 2nd in birdie+ gained, 2nd in bogie avoidance

Corey Conners: 8000: +8000 (with starting strokes), +2500 (without starting strokes) – Starting in T20 (-1), 22,26 finishes his two times here last year and in 2019, 5,28,21,28,61,MC,6,13,MC,21,12,16,6 his last 14 events, 4th in approach, 6th in SG: OTT, 1st in fairways gained, 7th in Par 4 scoring, 4th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 10th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 21st in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 24th in SG: ARG, 25th in putting, 3rd in opportunities gained, 3rd in GIRs gained, 19th in birdie+ gained, 21st in bogie avoidance

Scott Stallings: 7400: +12500 (with starting strokes), +6600 (without starting strokes) – Starting in T10 (-3), great longshot odds, first time making it to East Lake, 2nd place finished last week at BMW with fantastic play T2G and on approach, 2,MC,13,10,4,8 his last six events, 6th in approach, 17th in SG: OTT, 8th in fairways gained, 7th in Par 4 scoring, 5th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 26th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 10th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 11th in SG: ARG, 21st in putting, 9th in opportunities gained, 12th in GIRs gained, 7th in birdie+ gained, 20th in bogie avoidance

Model

Approach (20%)

SG: OTT (10%)

Fairways Gained (5%)

Par 4 Scoring (10%)

Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 yards (5%)

Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards (5%)

Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 yards (5%)

SG: ARG (5%)

Putting (5%)

Opportunities Gained (10%)

GIRs Gained (10%)

Birdie+ Gained (5%)

Bogie Avoidance (5%)

Stats based on past 24 rounds

DraftKings/Betting Notes

  • Starting position matters a lot in DK since the scoring is just standard but the pricing takes that into account
  • Without only 29 golfers in the field, there will be a ton of duplicate lineups in DFS, so you have to really differentiate your lineups leaving money on the table and doing contrarian stacks
  • A lot of books will offer regular odds on the tournament winner as well as alternate odds on who has the best score for the four days not taking into account starting strokes, so there’s different ways to look at it since the odds with starting strokes are essentially like live betting the tournament before it even starts
  • I’m betting all my guys both ways with or without starting strokes with each ways for the longer odds

Bets

Outrights (with starting strokes)

.9u Xander Schauffele (+700)

.3u Tony Finau (+2000)

.28u Cam Smith (+2200)

.08u Corey Connors (+8000)

.06u Scott Stallings (+12500)

Outrights (without starting strokes)

.68u Xander Schauffele (+900)

.44u Cam Smith (+1400)

.44u Tony Finau (+1400)

.24u Corey Connors (+2500)

.1u Scott Stallings (+6600)

T4s (with starting strokes)

.28u Cam Smith (+440)

.08u Corey Connors (+1600)

.06u Scott Stallings (+2500)

T4s (without starting strokes)

.24u Corey Connors (+625)

.1u Scott Stallings (+1165)


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Please follow me:

Instagram: @atownszone

Twitter: @atownszone

TikTok: @atownszone

If you like the site and my work, share it with your friends!

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