In the last week of the PLL regular season in Seattle, I went 3-2 to win 1.38 units. After a week off, today the playoffs begin with three quarterfinals games in Gillette Stadium in Boston. Let’s crush these games!!
Chaos vs. Chrome (9/3 12:00)
Last year’s champion Chaos snuck into the playoffs in the last seed with a 2-8 record. Not what Chaos (or Bandits) fans expected of them coming into this season after last year’s run. They come into the playoffs on a three game losing streak after a close 10-9 loss last week to the Atlas in their regular season finale. The Chaos have struggled on both ends of the field this season. They scored the fewest goals in the PLL this season, averaging only 10.1 scores per game and they’ve allowed the second most of any team that made the playoffs, an average of 12.6 scores per game despite having last year’s MVP in Blaze Riorden in between the pipes. The new look, young Chrome team of this season is much improved from last year when they were the only team to miss the playoffs. They finished the regular season with a 7-3 record, only behind the 9-1 Whipsnakes, who get the week off with the top seed in the playoffs. The Chrome offense have scored an average of 12 scores a game and they’ve allowed the fewest scores this season of teams playing this season (and second fewest behind the Whips), giving up an average of 10.2 scores per game. These teams just played each other less than a month ago in Denver in Week 9 of the regular season where the Chrome won 13-9. I expect the Chrome to pick up their first ever win in the playoffs with a win this week to knock off the struggling defending champs. I’ll lay the heavier juice for a unit on the Chrome ML.
Redwoods vs. Archers (9/3 2:30)
The Archers have what I think is the best offense in the PLL with so much depth on their offense. That hasn’t totally translated into wins though, as they come into the playoffs with a 6-4 record and they haven’t been able to get a win against any team this season with a winning record. The closest to that was a win over the Waterdogs who finished 5-5 on the regular season. That spectacular Archers offense finished the regular season with the highest scoring offense in the league, tied with the Waterdogs, averaging 13 scores per game. They have been decent defensively, allowing an average of 11 scores per game. The Redwoods got hot to finish off the season, winning three of their last five games to end the regular season with a 4-6 record. They haven’t been great on either end of the field, averaging 11.4 scores per game and allowing an average of 12.4 scores per game. The one advantage that the Redwoods have in this game though is faceoffs. The Archers have struggled at the stripe this season with just a 38% faceoff win percentage. They’ll have to go up against TD Ierlan, who’s solid in getting possessions with a 54% win percentage this season. These teams played a close game in Week 5 of the regular season in Minneapolis, with the Archers getting a 10-9 win over the Woods. I like the Archers offense to overpower the Redwoods and move onto the semifinals with another win against them today. I’ll take the Archers ML for a unit. I’d slightly lean the over in this matchup, but not enough to bet on it, so I’ll skip the total and just stick with the side.
Waterdogs vs. Atlas (9/3 5:10)
This is a fantastic matchup and easily the best one of this weekend in my opinion between the 6-4 Atlas and the 5-5 Waterdogs who are two of the most well rounded teams in the league. The Atlas came into this season with championship expectations and although they’ve underachieved on that a bit at 6-4, they’re still a very good team. Their young, solid offense has average 12.8 scores per game, third most in the PLL behind the Waterdogs and Archers (both tied for an average of 13 scores per game) and they’ve allowed an average of 11.9 scores per game. Their biggest advantage comes at the faceoff stripe though with Trevor Baptiste leading the league by a significant margin with a 70% win percentage, even with pushing through an injury this season. The Waterdogs started off the season slowly, going 0-3 in their first three games but turned it around as the season went on, riding out the rest of the year to finish off 5-5, dropping their last two regular season games to the Archers and Redwoods. The Dogs lead the PLL in scoring, tied with the Archers with 13 scores per game on average. Despite having one of the best goalies in the league with Dillon Ward between the pipes, the Waterdogs have struggled defensively this season, allowing an average of 13.3 scores per game, second most in the PLL and the most of any team that made the playoffs. When these teams met in Denver in Week 9, they played one of the most entertaining games of the season with the Waterdogs taking down the Atlas 16-15 in overtime. I think the Atlas get their revenge with a playoff win tonight and with Baptiste stacking up the possessions for his Atlas, I’ll take them for half a unit. The play I really like on this game though is the over, expecting both teams to be able to score with these two electric offenses going at it. I’ll take the over for a unit.
Bets
1u Chrome ML (-200)
1u Archers ML (-175)
1u Waterdogs/Atlas over 24.5 (-113)
.5u Atlas ML (-155)
Record: 29–25 (-4.74)
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