Fortinet Championship – Gambling/DFS Preview 2022

Silverado Country Club (North Course)  – Napa, CA

The PGA Tour season kicks off this week with the first fall swing season event of the year, the Fortinet Championship at Silverado Country Club in Napa, CA with many Korn Ferry Tour grads playing their first PGA event.

Course Breakdown

Par 72, 7166 yards, most golfers should reach all the Par 5s in two, birdiefest especially if the course softens up, 6/10 Par 4s are 400-450 yards (and another is 453), two of the Par 3s are over 200 yards, tree lined tight fairways are hilly and there are bunkers guarding the landing areas, driving accuracy is lower here than tour average (~52% vs. 62%), two cuts of rough which is not very penal with the first cut of rough being minuscule and easy to hit out of, resort course so the Kentucky bluegrass rough won’t get higher than 2.5 inches, there are several doglegs and missing on the wrong side of the fairway could be tougher to work around, large trees throughout the course are sporadic and not bunched together but they’re very tall and towering, firm average sized bentgrass with POA greens, slightly elevated greens with some slope and heavy undulation, green side bunkers guarding the front of most greens with some tightly mowed runoff areas 

Tournament Notes

  • Formerly called the Safeway Open
  • First event of the 2023 PGA Tour season
  • This course has hosted this event since 2015
  • Putting is completely insignificant here
  • A lot of the Korn Ferry Tour grads are in the field for the first time this week
  • Six of the last eight winners have been good ball strikers who typically are lousy putters
  • 16-18 are three of the five easiest holes on the course so we can see some interesting finishes here
  • The reshuffling of the fall swing season and the different FedEx Cup points values for these events could be why the field is weaker than previous years

Key Stats

Approach, SG: OTT, Par 4 Scoring (400-450 yards)

Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yards (19.1%), 125-150 yards (18.6%), 100-125 yards (18.1%)

Field

144 golfers – very weak strength swing season field with lots of new Korn Ferry Tour grads playing their first PGA Tour event

Defending Champion: Max Homa (-19)

Runner Up Last Year: Maverick McNealy (-18)

Players

Hideki Matsuyama: 10700: +1600 – Along with Max Homa they’re easily the two best golfers in the field, 1st in simulator model, 6,MC,17,3 finishes his four times here, Finished 11th in the Tour Championship and 35th at BMW, 3rd in Approach, 38th in SG: OTT, 92nd in Driving Distance, 12th in Par 4 Scoring, 4th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 17th in Proximity 200+ yards, 1st in Proximity 125-150 yards, 64th in Proximity 100-125 yards, 29th in SG: ARG, 29th in Putting, 17th in Opportunities Gained, 24th in Birdie+ Gained

Cameron Davis: 9600: +2900 – 36,MC,17 finishes his three times here, 35,13,14,16,8 finishes in his last five events, 10th in Approach, 41st in SG: OTT, 15th in Driving Distance, 67th in Par 4 Scoring, 89th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 7th in Proximity 200+ yards, 10th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 2nd in Proximity 100-125 yards, 26th in SG: ARG, 38th in Putting, 1st in Opportunities Gained, 9th in Birdie+ Gained

Davis Riley: 9400: +2900 – MC here last year, 54,31,13,MC,MC finishes in his last five events, 9th in Approach, 9th in SG: OTT, 40th in Driving Distance, 22nd in Par 4 Scoring, 29th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 28th in Proximity 200+ yards, 26th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 93rd in Proximity 100-125 yards, 55th in SG: ARG, 69th in Putting, 2nd in Opportunities Gained, 31st in Birdie+ Gained

Brendan Steele: 8900: +3400 – Has the second most SG here in the last five years, won here back to back in 2017 and 2016, 42,29,60,53,1,1,17,21 finishes here, 32,MC,30,MC,25,10,9 finishes in his last seven events, 2nd in Approach, 1st in SG: OTT, 30th in Driving Distance, 37th in Par 4 Scoring, 14th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 1st in Proximity 200+ yards, 8th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 49th in Proximity 100-125 yards, 99th in SG: ARG, 132nd in Putting, 3rd in Opportunities Gained, 67th in Birdie+ Gained

Alex Smalley: 7300: +8000 – MC here last year, 44,MC,13,MC,10,16 finishes in his last six events, 11th in Approach, 71st in SG: OTT, 32nd in Driving Distance, 55th in Par 4 Scoring, 42nd in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 3rd in Proximity 200+ yards, 23rd in Proximity 125-150 yards, 71st in Proximity 100-125 yards, 76th in SG: ARG, 111th in Putting, 8th in Opportunities Gained, 68th in Birdie+ Gained

Austin Eckroat: 7100: +11000 – Korn Ferry Tour grad, finished 2nd last week in the Korn Ferry Tour Championship, 2,MC,12,8,2,18,15 finishes in his last seven Korn Ferry Tour events, played last year on PGA with 64,65,MC finishes at Phoenix, Pebble and Farmers, 35th in Approach, 38th in SG: OTT, 53rd in Driving Distance, 7th in Par 4 Scoring, 38th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 24th in Proximity 200+ yards, 2nd in Proximity 125-150 yards, 10th in Proximity 100-125 yards, 137th in SG: ARG, 97th in Putting, 74th in Opportunities Gained, 8th in Birdie+ Gained

Model

Approach (25%)

SG: OTT (10%)

Driving Distance (5%)

Par 4 Scoring (5%)

Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards (10%)

Proximity 200+ yards (5%)

Proximity 125-150 yards (5%)

Proximity 100-125 yards (5%)

SG: ARG (5%)

Putting (5%)

Opportunities Gained (10%)

Birdie+ Gained (10%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds (including Korn Ferry Tour stats)

DraftKings/Betting Notes

  • Last season, I essentially broke even on the each ways. Golfers don’t come through enough to hit a T5/T6 but not win the event at a rate that makes the low odds (typically 1/5th of the outright price) worth betting on a weekly basis. So I won’t be betting each ways this season and bumping my outright to win 10 units instead of 6 like I did last season. I will also be evaluating other ways to bet the board to maximize profits.

Bets

Outrights

.64u Hideki Matsuyama (+1600)

.36u Cameron Davis (+2900)

.36u Davis Riley (+2900)

.3u Brendan Steele (+3400)

.14u Alex Smalley (+8000)

.1u Austin Eckroat (+11000)


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