After a week off for the Presidents Cup, the PGA Tour is back with the Sanderson Farms Championship at the Country Club of Jackson in Jackson, Mississippi.

Course Breakdown

Par 72, 7461 yds, 6 Par 4s between 400-450 yds, strokes gained off the tee plays a significant factor here, average width tree lined fairways with bunkers guarding the landing zones, trees aren’t too dense and penal, much lower driving accuracy here vs. tour average (54% vs. 62%), higher GIR % here vs. tour average (69% vs. 66%), birdie rate on the Par 5s is in the bottom 15 of courses on tour each year so they aren’t as easy as on other courses, the 15th hole is a drivable Par 4, Bermuda rough is only around 2 inches so shouldn’t be too hard to hit out of but could have some tough lies, above average sized elevated Bermuda greens with a bit of undulation, guarded by bunkers, water and runoff areas, greens are pretty receptive

Tournament Notes

• Prior to 2019, this used to be an alternative event played on the week of a major. In 2019, it moved to a full PGA event in the fall swing season
• This course have hosted this tournament since 2015
• Golfers with a big range of talents have won here and plenty of long shots have won here

Key Stats

Approach, SG: OTT, Par 4 Scoring (400-450 yards)

Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yds (21.9%), 125-150 yds (19.6%)

Field

135 golfers – Horrible field strength, definitely a swing season strength event

Defending Champion: Sam Burns (-22)

Runner Up Last Year: Cameron Young, Nick Watney (-21)

Players

JT Poston: 10200: +3000 – MC,3,11,54,53,29 finishes here, first event since the Tour Championship, 15,35,20,21,11,MC,1,2 finishes in his last eight events, 16th in approach, 46th in SG: OTT, 2nd in Par 4 scoring, 1st in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 7th in Par 5 scoring, 59th in proximity 200+ yards, 86th in proximity 125-150 yards, 11th in SG: ARG, 5th in putting, 68th in opportunities gained, 9th in birdie+ gained

Russell Henley: 10100: +3000 – 54 (2019) and 14 (2016) finishes his two times here, first event since BMW, 35,MC,5,10,62 finishes in his last five events, 1st in approach, 51st in SG: OTT, 12th in Par 4 scoring, 2nd in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 27th in Par 5 scoring, 103rd in proximity 200+ yards, 6th in proximity 125-150 yards, 5th in SG: ARG, 87th in putting, 1st in opportunities gained, 5th in birdie+ gained

Keegan Bradley: 9400: +4000 – MC and 4th place finishes here the last two years, 58,MC,44,MC,MC in his last five events, 35th in approach, 5th in SG: OTT, 22nd in Par 4 scoring, 6th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 17th in Par 5 scoring, 38th in proximity 200+ yards, 117th in proximity 125-150 yards, 27th in SG: ARG, 28th in putting, 8th in opportunities gained, 11th in birdie+ gained

Emiliano Grillo: 9200: +4500 – 39,35,39 finishes here the last three years, 25,19,31,2,MC,2 finishes in his last six events, 72nd (34th) in approach, 4th in SG: OTT, 17th (7th) in Par 4 scoring, 78th (44th) in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 15th (2nd) in Par 5 scoring, 1st (2nd) in proximity 200+ yards, 35th (44th) in proximity 125-150 yards, 64th (27th) in SG: ARG, 36th (37th) in putting, 40th (29th) in opportunities gained, 3rd (4th) in birdie+ gained, first in my model when run for past 36 rounds (listed in parentheses)

Davis Riley: 9000: +3500 – MC,MC,39 finishes here the last three years, MC,54,31,13 finishes his last four events, 44th in approach, 6th in SG: OTT, 45th in Par 4 scoring, 11th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 16th in Par 5 scoring, 16th in proximity 200+ yards, 27th in proximity 125-150 yards, 31st in SG: ARG, 34th in putting, 4th in opportunities gained, 2nd in birdie+ gained

Brendan Steele: 7900: +7000 – Finished 17th here last year and 61st back in 2015, MC,32,MC,30,MC,25,10,9 finishes in his last eight events, 9th (3rd) in approach, 1st in SG: OTT, 22nd (17th) in Par 4 scoring, 39th (13th) in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 67th (26th) in Par 5 scoring, 12th (1st) in proximity 200+ yards, 32nd (6th) in proximity 125-150 yards, 99th (92nd) in SG: ARG, 133rd (122nd) in putting, 6th (3rd) in opportunities gained, 101st (49th) in birdie+ gained, stats are better in the shorter sample of 36 rounds (listed in parentheses)

Model

Approach (20%)

SG: OTT (15%)

Par 4 scoring (10%)

Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards (10%)

Par 5 scoring (10%)

Proximity 200+ yards (5%)

Proximity 125-150 yards (5%)

SG: ARG (5%)

Putting (10%)

Opportunities gained (5%)

Birdie+ gained (5%)

Stats based on past 50 rounds

Bets

Outrights

.34u JT Poston (+3000)

.34u Russell Henley (+3000)

.3u Davis Riley (+3500)

.26u Keegan Bradley (+4000)

.24u Emiliano Grillo (+4500)

.16u Brendan Steele (+7000)

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