This week the PGA Tour goes to TPC Summerlin just off the Las Vegas strip for the Shriners Children’s Open.

Course Breakdown

Par 71, 7255 yards, 7 Par 4s between 400-450 yards, course plays a lot shorter due to the elevation so the ball goes 8-10% farther on average here (average drives 296 yds vs. tour average 282), 2 of the 3 Par 5s are reachable in 2 by the whole field and the other one is reachable by some of the field because of the extra length from the altitude, pretty wide tree lined bermuda fairways that tighten up a bit around 300 yards, fairways play firm which leads to extra rollout and even more distance off the tee, missing fairways isn’t very penal with trees spread out and the bermuda rough is pretty short (but can give tricky lies and tough to control distance out of it), rocky native areas if you miss wildly, large bentgrass greens with average speeds and a lot of sneaky slope and undulation with putts breaking more than they look like they will even though the greens look relatively flat, 50 greenside bunkers and 3 inch rough surrounding the greens, top 10 hardest course on tour in scrambling and sand save %, GIR % here is a lot higher than tour average (73% vs. 66%), birdiefest with the winning score around -20

Tournament Notes

• This event has ended in a playoff 3 of the previous 5 years
• 12 of the last 21 winners here got their first PGA Tour victory at this event (6 of the last 14)
• 7 of the last 9 winners were T20 in driving accuracy for the week (Kevin Na, who putted lights out was the exception to that)

Key Stats

Approach, SG: OTT, Par 4 scoring: 400-450 yds (10%)

Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yds (24.8%), 125-150 and 150-175 (both 20.3%)

Field

144 golfers – pretty weak field strength with a few higher end players

Defending Champion: Sungjae Im (-24)

Runner Up Last Year: Matthew Wolff (-20)

Players

Aaron Wise: 9900: +2500 – T8,MC,MC,T15,T32,T10 finishes here the last six years, first even since the Tour Championship, 13,15,31,13,34 finishes in his last five events, 15th in approach, 17th in SG: OTT, 1st in proximity 200+ yds, 3rd in proximity 125-150 yds, 85th in proximity 150-175 yds, 33rd in Par 4 scoring, 34th in Par 4 scoring: 400-450 yards, 15th in Par 5 scoring, 124th in SG: ARG, 13th in putting, 38th in opportunities gained, 54th in birdie+ gained

Tom (Joohyung) Kim: 9700: +2500 – first event since the BWM, 54,13,1,7,26 finishes in his last five events, 1st in approach, 53rd in SG: OTT, 17th in proximity 200+ yds, 14th in proximity 125-150 yds, 43rd in proximity 150-175 yds, 18th in Par 4 scoring, 14th in Par 4 scoring: 400-450 yards, 29th in Par 5 scoring, 57th in SG: ARG, 37th in putting, 5th in opportunities gained, 2nd in birdie+ gained

Emiliano Grillo: 9300: +5000 – T47,T34,MC finishes here the last three years, 5th in approach last week at Sanderson Farms, 5,25,19,31,2,MC,2 finishes his last seven events, 8th in approach, 9th in SG: OTT, 19th in proximity 200+ yds, 17th in proximity 125-150 yds, 77th in proximity 150-175 yds, 13th in Par 4 scoring, 20th in Par 4 scoring: 400-450 yards, 4th in Par 5 scoring, 80th in SG: ARG, 10th in putting, 36th in opportunities gained, 3rd in birdie+ gained

Cameron Davis: 9200: +4500 – T27,T52,T28 finishes his three times here (over the last four years), MC,35,13,14,16,8 finishes in his last six events, 22nd in approach, 20th in SG: OTT, 8th in proximity 200+ yds, 15th in proximity 125-150 yds, 30th in proximity 150-175 yds, 37th in Par 4 scoring, 75th in Par 4 scoring: 400-450 yards, 8th in Par 5 scoring, 28th in SG: ARG, 53rd in putting, 1st in opportunities gained, 4th in birdie+ gained

Taylor Penrith: 8700: +5500 – T47 here last year, 67,8,68,13,2,13 finishes in his last six events, 21st in approach, 1st in SG: OTT, 33rd in proximity 200+ yds, 69th in proximity 125-150 yds, 50th in proximity 150-175 yds, 49th in Par 4 scoring, 24th in Par 4 scoring: 400-450 yards, 5th in Par 5 scoring, 63rd in SG: ARG, 85th in putting, 24th in opportunities gained, 12th in birdie+ gained

Mito Pereira: 7800: +6600 – T40 here last year, first event since BMW, 54,42 finishes his last two events, 7th in approach, 28th in SG: OTT, 11th in proximity 200+ yds, 24th in proximity 125-150 yds, 112th in proximity 150-175 yds, 94th in Par 4 scoring, 27th in Par 4 scoring: 400-450 yards, 41st in Par 5 scoring, 31st in SG: ARG, 76th in putting, 4th in opportunities gained, 17th in birdie+ gained

Model

Approach (20%)

SG: OTT (15%)

Proximity 200+ yds (5%)

Proximity 125-150 yds (5%)

Proximity 150-175 yds (5%)

Par 4 Scoring (5%)

Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 yards (10%)

Par 5 Scoring (5%)

SG: ARG (5%)

Putting (10%)

Opportunities gained (5%)

Birdie+ gained (10%)

Stats based on past 24 rounds

Bets

Outrights

.4u Aaron Wise (+2500)

.4u Tom Kim (+2500)

.24u Cameron Davis (+4500)

.2u Emiliano Grillo (+5000)

.2u Taylor Pendrith (+5500)

.16u Mito Pereira (+6600)

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