The PGA Tour goes to Japan this week for the ZOZO Championship at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club. Coming off hitting a winner with Tom Kim last week, I break down this week’s event!

Course Breakdown

Par 70, 7041 yards, 5 Par 3s which are all relatively short (none over 191 yards) and 3 Par 5s with two of the Par 5s reachable in two by most golfers, 5 of the Par 4s are under 425 yards and the other 5 are over 480 yards with none in between, only one of the longer Par 4s has water in play and there isn’t much trouble off the tee on the long Par 4s, tight tree lined fairways that tend to get more narrow after the 280 yard range with fairway bunkers in the landing zones and water on two holes, rough isn’t too long but could have tricky lies and distance control out of the zoysia grass, tree line is about 15 yards from the edge of the fairways so there is some room for error if you miss the fairway, much lower driving accuracy here vs tour average (~54% vs. 62%), two greens on every hole which is standard for Japanese courses but only one green will be used for the entire tournament besides the 4th hole which will switch each round, size of greens will switch from hole to hole depending on which is used with one small green and one large green on each hole, larger greens are average to tour standard and for the most part most holes are using the smaller holes, bent grass greens with tons of slope and undulation but average in speed, numerous runoff areas and green side bunkers mostly on the front

Tournament Notes

• Small field no cut event
• This is a cohosted event with the Asian Tour
• Because this event is taking place in Japan, it starts Wednesday evening rather than Thursday morning
• Third time this course has hosted this event
• No strokes gained data for this course

Key Stats

Approach, SG: OTT, Birdie+ Gained

Field

78 golfers – better strength field for a swing season event, no Korn Ferry Tour members but some members from the Asian Tour

Defending Champion: Hideki Matsuyama (-15)

Runner Up Last Year: Brendan Steele, Cameron Tringale (-10)

Players

Hideki Matsuyama: 10400: +1400 – Playing in his home country, defending champ with 2nd place finish in 2019 his other time here, 25,11,35,68,MC,4 finishes in his last six events, 4th in approach, 22nd in SG: OTT, 56th in Fairways Gained, 24th in Par 3 Scoring 175-200 yards, 10th in Par 4 Scoring, 60th in Par 5 Scoring, 24th in SG: ARG, 17th in Putting, 11th in Opportunities Gained, 11th in Birdie+ Gained

Corey Conners: 9000: +2900 – Finished 6th here in 2019, MC,26,5,28,21 finishes in his last five events, 11th in approach, 4th in SG: OTT, 4th in Fairways Gained, 27th in Par 3 Scoring 175-200 yards, 9th in Par 4 Scoring, 36th in Par 5 Scoring, 48th in SG: ARG, 53rd in Putting, 8th in Opportunities Gained, 24th in Birdie+ Gained

Cameron Davis: 8500: +4200 – First time playing here, 37,MC,35,13,14,16,8 finishes in his last seven events, 18th in approach, 19th in SG: OTT, 70th in Fairways Gained, 1st in Par 3 Scoring 175-200 yards, 48th in Par 4 Scoring, 2nd in Par 5 Scoring, 29th in SG: ARG, 33rd in Putting, 2nd in Opportunities Gained, 6th in Birdie+ Gained

Mito Pereira: 8300: +3500 – First time playing here, 4,54,42 finishes in his last three events, 1st in approach, 10th in SG: OTT, 22nd in Fairways Gained, 4th in Par 3 Scoring 175-200 yards, 39th in Par 4 Scoring, 7th in Par 5 Scoring, 16th in SG: ARG, 51st in Putting, 1st in Opportunities Gained, 2nd in Birdie+ Gained

Model

Approach (25%)

SG: OTT (10%)

Fairways Gained (5%)

Par 3 Scoring 175-200 yards (10%)

Par 4 Scoring (5%)

Par 5 Scoring (5%)

SG: ARG (10%)

Putting (5%)

Opportunities Gained (10%)

Birdie+ Gained (15%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

DraftKings/Betting Notes

• I have a bit smaller of a card this week with elevated odds because of the smaller field, so limiting a bit of exposure
• Considered Tom Kim, Xander Schauffele and Cameron Young a lot but none of their odds are worth betting to me, just not enough value

Bets

Outrights

.72u Hideki Matsuyama (+1400)

.36u Corey Conners (+2900)

.3u Mito Pereira (+3500)

.24u Cameron Davis (+4200)

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