Last night I bounced back from my losing Thursday as I swept the board to win 1.5 units. Today we have another giant NHL slate with 14 games, one of the biggest ones of the year! Let’s win!
Sabres vs. Panthers (1:00)
My Sabres opened the season on Thursday night at home with a big 4-1 win against the Senators. That was a much closer game as the scores shows with the Sabres icing off the game with two empty net goals. The Sabres and Sens played a pretty evenly matched, physical game and old man Craig Anderson came up big in goal when he needed to. Florida opened their season on Thursday night as well on Long Island with a 3-1 win over the Islanders, despite getting outshot 29-33 in a slow grind of a game. Last season these teams played four times and the Panthers swept us in those games, in all high scoring games. I’d lean the Panthers give us our first loss of the season today, but not enough for me to bet on it at -190. I also like the over in this game but I don’t like the idea of betting on it at 7 and the alternate 6.5 line is too expensive for me to lay the -155, so I’ll stay off this game complete. Let’s Go Sabres!!
Flyers vs. Canucks (4:00)
The Flyers surprised me on Thursday night in their first game under new head coach John Tortorella as they beat the Devils 5-2. They didn’t play great, getting outshot 37-25, but they capitalized on their chances and put the puck in the back of the net while Carter Hart made 35 saves. The Canucks started their first game with a fast 3-0 lead in Edmonton on Thursday night but they blew that lead, giving up five straight goals to lose 5-3. That worked great for me as I cashed in on my pregame moneyline bet on the Oilers along with a nice +205 cash live on their moneyline when I doubled down with them down 2-0. Vancouver was the better team in that game, outshooting the Oilers 36-25. I’m very interested to see how they bounce back from blowing that game. Last season these cross conference teams played each other twice and split those games, both decided by just a goal. This is a game where I think the Canucks are the much better team and should win on the road, but its still early enough in the season where I’d rather see how the Canucks bounce back from their choke job on Thursday and see if the Flyers can build on their win. I’ll stay off this game but I’d lean the Canucks win it.
Bruins vs. Coyotes (7:00)
Arizona’s going to be a lottery team this season and there’s no question about it. They opened their season in Pittsburgh on Thursday and as a surprise to no one, they got completely dominated. Just 5:10 into that game, the Penguins had a 3-0 lead and easily rode that to a 6-2 final score as the Coyotes got completely dominated, getting outshot 53-28. They’re that bad. Tonight they’re in Boston to take on the Bruins, who opened their season on Thursday with a 5-2 win on the road against the Capitals. The B’s got outshot 35-30 and out hit 48-32 yet still found a way to win in front of new head coach Jim Montgomery. This should be a pretty easy game for the Bruins to win their home opener. They should pour it on against this weak Yotes team. The problem though is the price. The moneyline at -335 and the regulation line of -195 are both too expensive. I’ll go with a half unit each on the Bruins puck line and Bruins TT over 3.5.
Devils vs. Red Wings (7:00)
Last night the Red Wings started their season with a 3-0 win at home against the Montreal Canadiens. Ville Husso made 29 saves in his shutout performance in his first game as a Red Wings. Detroit poured on the shots with 40 of them through the game and although it took till the third period for them to go in the back of the net, they got the win. I thought the Devils would be able to start their season with a win on Thursday in Philly, but they lost 5-2 despite outshooting the Flyers 37-25. Detroit swept the three game season series between these teams last season. I expected both of these teams to improve from last year but neither to be playoff teams. I think this ends up being a pretty evenly matched game and I don’t see any edge in betting any side of this game, so I’ll just pass on it.
Penguins vs. Lightning (7:00)
The Penguins opened their season at home on Saturday night with an easy 6-2 win against the pathetic Arizona Coyotes. They had a 3-0 lead just 5:10 into the game and rode out that lead without much effort. The veteran lead offense poured it on with 53 shots on goal. The Lightning are on the second half of a road back to back after beating the Blue Jackets 5-2 last night, a solid bounce back win after their 3-1 loss to the Rangers to open their season. Through two games, the Bolts have averaged 32.5 shots on goal while allowing an average of 33.5. Last season in the three games these two teams played, the Pens went 2-1 and none of those games were particularly close, all decided by four goals. With the Bolts on the second half of a back to back and likely going with Brian Elliot in goal, I’d slightly lean the Penguins win today at home. I think it still ends up being a close enough game though between two very good teams that I don’t see an edge in betting on it. I’d slightly lean the over as well, but not enough to bet it. Even with fantastic matchups sometimes the best play on a game is no bet at all. So I’ll lay off of it on this one.
Maple Leafs vs. Senators (7:00)
The Maple Leafs are 1-1 this season after a 3-2 win in a close game against the Caps on Thursday night, bouncing back from their embarrassing 4-3 loss in Montreal in their season opener. The Leafs have been the better team in both of those games, averaging 35.5 shots on goal while allowing an average of 24.5 shots on goal. The Sens opened their season in Buffalo on Thursday, losing 4-1 against my Sabres in what was definitely a closer game than the final score shows. Toronto struggles with games against the Sens and the Habs. Last season in the four games between these Ontario rivals, the Leafs went 3-1. The Leafs should win this game but they always play down to the level of their inferior rivals. They’ve screwed me big time on my bets on their games in both of their games so far this season and I sure as shit am not betting on them today. Blow Leafs Blow. I’d lean the over as well.
Capitals vs. Canadiens (7:00)
The Caps haven’t had a great start to their season, losing back to back games on Wednesday and Thursday, losing 5-2 at home to the Bruins and then losing 3-2 in Toronto. In those two games, they’ve generated an average of 30.5 shots on goals and have allowed an average of 34.5 shots. The Habs are on the second half of a road back to back, getting shut out in a 3-0 loss in Detroit last night (winner for me). A regression back to the mean after their shocking 4-3 win against the Leafs on opening night. Through two games, Montreal has allowed an average of 36 shots per game and have generated an average of 26 per game. Last season the Caps swept the Habs all in easy, high scoring games by a margin of at least three goals in each of those games. The Canadiens are a lottery team and one of the worst in the NHL. I like the Caps to get their first win of the season at home tonight a lot, especially with Montreal on the second half of a back to back. The moneyline at -315 is so damn expensive, but I’ll lay the juice on their regulation line for half a unit.
Islanders vs. Ducks (7:30)
The Islanders started their season with a loss at home to the Panthers on Thursday in a low scoring grind it out 3-1 game. They outshot Florida 33-29, but couldn’t solve Bobrovsky. Tonight they’ll have another chance at home to get a win with a favorable matchup against the Ducks. Anaheim opened their season with a big comeback win in overtime against the Kraken on Wednesday. Seattle blew a two goal lead twice in that game and despite being outshot 48-27, the Ducks capitalized when they had to, tying the game and then going onto win 55 seconds into overtime on Troy Terry’s second goal of the game. Last season the Isles won both of their games against the Ducks with a 4-0 shutout and a 4-3 close win. I’d expect Ilya Sorokin and the Isles to shut down the Ducks tonight at home and get a win. I’ll take the Isles ML for half a unit. I’d lean the under but not enough to bet on it.
Stars vs. Predators (8:00)
These teams just played each other in the first half of a home and home in Nashville on Thursday with the Stars opening their season with 4-1 win on the road. The Predators are now 2-1 with that loss after winning back to back against the Sharks in Prague to open the season. I like the Preds to bounce back here with a win on the road, but not enough to bet on it on the road. Last year the Stars played much better at home than they did on the road last year. I do like the under here though and will take the alternate under 6 for half a unit.
Wild vs. Kings (8:00)
The Wild were a very good last year but they got dominated in their season opening game, losing 7-3 at home on Thursday night to the Rangers, despite outshooting the Rags 36-35. Not a great game for Marc Andre Fleury. The Kings are 0-2 to start their season, losing at home 4-3 to the Golden Knights and 4-1 to the Kraken in their two games. They’ve only generated an average of 28.5 shots per game and have allowed an average of 36.5. Not great. Last season these two Western Conference playoff teams played three times with Minnesota winning two of those games. I like the Wild to bounce back from their loss with a big win today. I’ll take them for half a unit.
Blues vs. Blue Jackets (8:00)
The St. Louis Blues open their season tonight at home against the Columbus Blue Jackets. Last season the Blues were a great team and they finish the regular season in third place in the Central Division, making the playoffs with a 49-22-11 record. They were a solid team in the playoffs too, beating the Wild in the first round in six games and then giving the eventual Cup Champion Colorado Avalanche their toughest competition in the second round, going onto lose in six games while sustaining key injuries. Over the course of the regular season last year, St. Louis was the third highest scoring team, averaging 3.77 goals per game while allowing an average of 2.92 goals per game, eleventh fewest in the league. Their power play was the second best unit in the league, scoring on 27% of their chances and their penalty kill was just as good, killing of a fifth best in the NHL 84.1% of their penalties. They lost a good amount in the offseason. With Jordan Binnington locked up on a long season, the Blues had to trade away Ville Husso in the offseason, so its back to Bin Nasty in between the pipes as the starter this year. Along with that, they lost David Perron to the Red Wings. They brought in Thomas Greiss to replace Husso but didn’t make any other significant additions. The Blue Jackets opened their year last night with a 5-2 loss to the Lightning, getting outshot 39-28. Last season these teams split their two games, both high scoring games with a total of nine goals per game. I like the Blues to open their season with a win here, especially with the Jackets on the second half of a back to back. With the price of the ML at -250, I’d rather go with the regulation line and I’ll take StL in regulation for half a unit. I’d lean the over as well but not enough to bet on at 6.5.
Oilers vs. Flames (10:00)
For each of their second games of the year, we already get an early Battle of Alberta in Edmonton with the biggest rivalry in the NHL. The last time these teams met was in the second round of the playoffs last season with the Oilers knocking off their rival Flames in five games. Both these teams opened their year with a win. The Oilers quickly got down to a 3-0 deficit against the Canucks on Wednesday night, but they rallied with five straight goals to win 5-3, cashing my pregame moneyline bet along with a nice +205 live bet when they were down 2-0. The Flames opened their season Thursday against the Cup champion Avalanche and got their own win in a very entertaining 5-3 game. Instead of their Vezina goalie Jacob Markstrom, tonight the Flames will go with their decent backup Dan Vladar between the pipes. Last season in the four regular season Battle of Alberta games, these teams split those games. The games between these teams are always heated and they’re always unpredictable. I do think the Flames are the better team this year, but not enough to bet a side. I do like the over though, thinking that both teams should be able to generate goals and since I think a decent amount of penalties happen in this game, that should give two dangerous offenses a good amount of power play chances. I’ll go with the over 6.5 here for half a unit.
Sharks vs. Blackhawks (10:00)
This game is going to suck with two pretty bad teams playing each other. The Sharks have had three one goal losses this season to open their year. They’ve struggled to score, averaging just 1.33 goals per game on an average of 27.7 shots per game and they’ve allowed an average of three goals per game on an average of 28.3 shots. They’re going to be bad this year, no doubt. The Blackhawks I expect to be even worst and think they’re one of the three worst teams in the league along with Arizona and Montreal. The Blackhawks got blown out 5-2 on opening night against the Avs Thursday and then go shutout in a 1-0 loss to the Knights on Thursday. They’ve been outshot in those games by pathetic averages of 36-22. This Chicago team is tanking for a rebuild and they’re going to be a lottery team. Last year the Sharks went 2-1 in their three games between these two lousy Western Conference teams. I think San Jose gets their first win of the season, but I’m more so betting against the Blackhawks here at a -137 price that I’m assuming will be pretty rare for us to see this year. I’ll go with Sharks for half a unit.
Kraken vs. Golden Knights (10:00)
The Golden Knights have started their season 2-0 with one goal wins against the Kings (4-3) and the Blackhawks (1-0). They’ve generated a ton of shots, averaging 44 shots on goal in those games and have limited those teams to an average of 1.5 goals per game on an average of 28.5 shots on goal. Tonight they’ll start Adin Hill in goal, who they acquired in the offseason. The Kraken are 1-0-1 so far this year. They bounced back from blowing a two goal lead in Anaheim twice and losing 5-4 in overtime on Wednesday with a big 4-1 win in LA against the Kings on Thursday. Their offense has gotten a lot of shots on goal, an average of 35 per game, much improved from last season and they’ve limited the two Cali teams to an average of 27 shots on goal. Last season these two most recently expansion teams played four times with the Golden Knights sweeping the season series. I’d expect Vegas to start their year off 3-0 in a close game tonight and I’ll take them for half a unit here. I’d lean the over but not enough to bet it.
Game Bets
.5u Bruins TT over 3.5 (-165)
.5u Bruins -1.5 (-124)
.5u Capitals in regulation (-186)
.5u Islanders ML (-170)
.5u Stars/Predators under 6 (-117)
.5u Wild ML (-170)
.5u Blues in regulation (-157)
.5u Oilers/Flames over 6.5 (-137)
.5u Sharks ML (-137)
.5u Golden Knights ML (-132)
Record: 12-13 (-4.61 units)
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