I got reverse swept last night on the NHL with the Red Wings blowing a 3-1 third period lead and the Avs coming out flat, so I went 0-3 to lose 3.24 units. We have a huge 13 game slate today along with a handful of day games. Let’s try to bounce back again.
No video today. Too many games spread out across different time slots and I’m too busy.
Bruins vs. Wild (1:00)
The Wild finally got their first win of the season on Thursday night with a super entertaining 4-3 overtime win on Karill the thrill Kaprizov’s overtime game winner at home against the Canucks. Minnesota’s now 1-3 on the season. Their offense has been pretty good, averaging 4 goals per game on an average of 36.8 shots on goal per game but they’ve really struggled defensively, even in their win as they’ve allowed an average of 5.75 goals per game on an average of 33.3 shots allowed. Fleury’s struggled with a 5.96 GAA and .813 save percentage. The Bruins have been very good to start their year 4-1. They’re coming off a 2-1 shootout win at home against the Ducks on Thursday to bounce back from their 7-5 loss in Ottawa on Tuesday. Boston’s been very good offensively so far this year, averaging 4.4 goals per game on an average of 35.4 shots on goal per game and they’ve allowed an average of 3.2 goals per game on an average of 32.4 shots on goal. Last season the Wild won both matchups that these two teams played. I’d lean the Bruins win this one at home but not enough to bet on a side with two teams that I expect to be pretty good. I like the over here though, expecting both teams to be able to score and will take the over for half a unit.
Devils vs. Sharks (1:00)
After starting their season with 5-2 losses against the Flyers and Red Wings, the Devils are now 2-2 after wins against the Ducks and Isles. I was pretty impressed with their 4-1 win against the Islanders on Thursday, where their defense didn’t even allow the Isles to get a shot on goal in the first period. Through their four games this season, the Devils haven’t been great but their underlying stats have been some of the best in the league. They’ve averaged 3 goals per game despite getting an average of 40 shots on goal per game. They’ve lead the NHL in expected goal percentage and high danger scoring chances. Defensively, they’ve allowed an average of 3.25 goals per game despite only allowing an average of 21 shots on goal. The Sharks have been horrible so far this year at 1-5, but are coming off their surprising first win of the season on Thursday, beating the Rangers 3-2 in overtime on the road. Their offense has been pathetic, averaging just 1.83 goals per game on an average of 27.3 shots on goal. They’ve allowed an average of 3.5 goals per game on an average of 29.8 shots allowed. Last year these cross country teams split their two games against each other. The Devils should win this game at home and make it three wins in a row against a very weak Sharks team but at -195, I don’t think NJ should quite come in at that price so I’ll take the Devils in regulation for half a unit. I’d slightly lean the under but not enough to bet on it, so I’ll stay off the total.
Oilers vs. Blues (4:00)
This should be a real fun afternoon game to watch today. The Blues are 2-0 to start this season after a 4-3 overtime win in Seattle on Wednesday (double winner for me on them and the over). In the two games they’ve played, St. Louis has averaged 4.5 goals per game on an average of 26.5 shots on goal while allowing an average of 2.5 goals per game on an average of 30 shots allowed. The Oilers bounced back on Thursday with a big 6-4 win over the Hurricanes to bounce back from their 4-2 loss to the Sabres. They’re now 2-2 on the season. As expected when you have the best player in the world in Connor McDavid along with Leon Draisaitl, Edmonton has a really solid offense. They’re averaging 4 goals per game on and average of 33.8 shots on goal but have had their struggles on the back end allowing an average of 3.75 goals per game on an average of 35.5 shots on goal allowed. In their three games last season between these two Western Conference playoff teams, the Oilers went 2-1 with all three games having at least six goals and two of them FLYING over. I’d lean the Blues here but I think this ends up being a pretty close game. I think both teams line up great for an over though with really good offenses and flaws in their defense and goaltending at times. I’m not betting it at 7 but I’ll take the alternate over 6.5 for half a unit.
Senators vs. Coyotes (4:00)
Coming off solid wins against the Capitals and Bruins after their 0-2 start of the season, the Sens are now 2-2 and have looked good in those last two games. On Thursday night at home against the Capitals, the Senators scored five straight goals after going into the first intermission down 2-0. They outshot the Caps 44-24. Through their four games, they’ve allowed an average of 3.75 goals per game on an average of 34.8 shots on goal. They’ve allowed an average of 3.5 goals per game on an average of 31.5 shots on goal allowed per game. The Coyotes are one of the worst teams in the NHL, tanking to get Connor Bedard and come into today’s game 1-3 on the season, coming off a 6-2 loss in Montreal on Thursday night. Through their four games, the Yotes offense hasn’t been bad, averaging 2.75 goals per game on an average of 24.5 shots on goal but they’ve been horrendous defensively, allowing an average of 5 goals per game while giving up an average of 38.5 shots on goal. Last year the Coyotes won both games between these teams in high scoring games. I think the Sens improved a solid amount in the offseason though and like them a lot in this spot at home. The moneyline at -260 is way too expensive for a team that’s as weak as Ottawa but they should definitely win this game at home. I’ll take the Senators in regulation for half a unit. I’d lean the over but not enough to bet on it, since I don’t particular trust the Yotes offense enough to get to the over 6.5, especially with it juiced up so I’ll stay off the total.
Blue Jackets vs. Penguins (7:00)
The Penguins bounced back from their 3-2 overtime loss in Montreal on Monday night with a huge 6-1 blowout of the Kings at home on Thursday night. Pittsburgh looks fantastic so far in their 3-0-1 start to the season. Their offense looks phenomenal, averaging 5 goals per game and generating an insane average of 40 shots on goal per game. Defensively they’ve been good as well, allowing an average of just 2 goals per game on an average of 35.8 shots on goal allowed. The Blue Jackets have rattled off wins against the Predators and Canucks after their 0-3 start to the season and are now 2-3. They’ve struggled quite a bit on both ends of the ice. Their offense has only scored an average of 1.8 goals per game on an average of 32 shots on goal. Defensively they’ve allowed an average of 3.4 goals per game on an average of 33.6 shots allowed per game. Last season Columbus got swept in their four games against the Penguins. I don’t see much changing in tonight’s game. I like the Pens to get a win on the road here and the price is better than I expected it to be. I’ll take the Penguins ML for half a unit.
Canadiens vs. Stars (7:00)
Montreal came into this season with expectations of being a lottery team, but they might have actually improves a solid amount in the offseason under head coach Martin St. Louis. They blew out the Coyotes 6-2 on Thursday night for their second win in a row and they’re now 3-2 on the year with a perfect record at home, beating the Leafs and Pens along with the Yotes. Through their five games so far this season, the Habs have scored an average of 2.8 goals per game on an average of 28.6 shots on goal and they’ve allowed an average of 2.6 goals per game, giving up na average of 31.2 shots on goal. The Stars are coming off their first loss of the season in Toronto on Thursday night, losing 3-2 in overtime to go to 3-0-1 on the year. Dallas has scored an average of 3.75 goals per game on an average of 27 shots on goal and they’ve been especially good defensively, allowing an average of only 1.5 goals per game on an average of 32.5 shots allowed per game. Last year these teams split the two games they played with both games hitting the over. Dallas is the better team in this matchup and I like the Stars to give Montreal their first home loss of the season tonight. I’ll take the Dallas ML for half a unit.
Lightning vs. Islanders (7:00)
Last night the Lightning won the first Battle of Florida of the season, beating the Panthers 3-2 in overtime on Brayden Point’s game winner on the power play after he tied the game about halfway through the third period. The three time in a row Eastern Conference champions haven’t been excellent to start the year, opening their season 2-3. They’ve scored an average of 2.6 goals per game on an average of 34.2 shots on goal and they’ve given up an average of 3.2 goals per game on an average of 34.8 shots allowed. The Isles are 2-2, coming off a 4-1 loss at home to the Devils on Thursday where they didn’t even get a single shot on goal in the first period and got dominated by NJ, getting outshot 43-17. In their four games this year, the Islanders have averaged 3.5 goals per game on an average of 33.5 shots on goal and they’ve allowed an average of 2.5 goals per game on an average of 30.8 shots given up. After their close seven game Eastern Conference finals series two seasons ago, last year the Bolts swept the Islanders in the three games they played with all of them coming easy and covering the puck line. I’d lean the Isles win on the road here with Brian Elliot expected to start in goal with the Bolts on the second half of a back to back and would lean the over in this game as well but don’t see value in betting either, so I’ll just stay off this game from a betting standpoint. If Vasilevskiy was starting, I would be all over the under, but with Elliot I don’t think anything here is worth betting on.
Capitals vs. Kings (7:00)
Both these teams are coming into tonight’s game off big losses on Thursday night. The Caps blew a 2-0 first period lead in Ottawa, giving up five straight goals to lose 5-2 in what ended up being a closer game than the score looks like, with two of those goals scored on the empty net but they got outshot 44-24 in that game. Washington is now 2-3 on the season and they haven’t looked all that great on either end of the ice. They’ve scored an average of 3 goals per game on an average of 28.8 shots on goal and they’ve allowed an average of 3.6 goals per game on an average of 33 shots allowed. After rattling off three wins in a row, the Kings got blown out 6-1 in Pittsburgh on Thursday night. Now they’re 3-3 on the season. Their offense hasn’t been too bad, averaging 3.33 goals per game on an average of 33.7 shots on goal but they’ve been terrible defensively. They’ve allowed an average of 4.5 goals per game on an average of 34.5 shots per game. Last year these cross conference playoff teams with first round exits split their two games, both hitting the under. I’d lean the Caps win this game at home and would lean the over here as well, but not enough to bet on anything in this one. I’ll just skip this game.
Jets vs. Maple Leafs (7:00)
Both of these teams have been sort of tough to figure out. The Jets are 2-2 after getting blown out 5-2 in Vegas on Thursday night, although they started one of the worst backups in the league in David Rittich that night. On the season Winnipeg has scored an average of 2.75 goals per game on an average of 28.8 shots per game and given up an average of 3.25 goals per game on an average of 33.8 shots on goal. They’ll have their top tier goaltending Connor Hellebuyck back in goal tonight. Toronto’s now 3-2 after a big 3-2 overtime win at home against the Stars on Thursday to bounce back from their embarrassing 4-2 loss at home to the Coyotes on Monday (big +600 winner for me on that result). The Leafs have both scored and allowed an average of 2.8 goals per game. They’ve outshot their competition by an average of 34.8-24.8. These opposite conference Canadian teams split their two games a season ago, both in very high scoring games. I’d lean the Leafs get a win here at home since they are the better team but I’ll never trust this team to win, especially on the road tonight against a good goalie. Blow Leafs Blow. I’d also lean the under but not enough to bet on it, so no action in this matchup for me.
Predators vs. Flyers (8:00)
The Flyers have been impressive in the way they’ve been able to get it done under new head coach John Tortorella. Torts has his boys going and they’re off to a 3-1 start to the season without really showing anything great statistically riding the hot play of Carter Hart in goal, who has a 2.00 GAA and an unsustainable .943 save percentage. The Flyers have allowed an average of just 2.5 goals per game while giving up an average of 35 shots on goal per game. Philly’s offense has scored an average of 3.5 goals per game on an average of 28.5 shots on goal. The Preds started their year off with back to back wins against a weak Sharks team in Prague but since returning home from Europe they’re on a four game losing streak to drop to 2-3-1 on the season. Nashville’s coming off a 5-3 loss in Columbus on Thursday night where they blew a 3-1 lead going into the third period by giving up four third period goals to the Jackets and getting outshot 42-26. In the six games they’ve played, the Predators have scored an average of 2.5 goals per game on an average of 28.3 shots on goal but they’ve allowed an average of 3.33 goals per game on 32 shots allowed on average. Last season these two teams split their games both decided by a 5-4 score. I’d expect Smashville to end their losing streak with a big win at home tonight but not enough to bet on it with the way this team has played since returning from Europe, especially with a -225 price on it. I’d lean the over as well but not enough to bet on it. This could be a fun one to watch but not a game I want to bet at all.
Canucks vs. Sabres (10:00)
My Sabres have looked incredible starting off the season 3-1, which makes me hugely optimistic for the future of this team. They’re coming off an awesome 6-3 win Thursday in Calgary, a team that I think could win the Cup after beating McDavid and the Oilers 4-2 two days prior in Edmonton. My team might just fuck around and make the playoffs this year, ahead of schedule. Through their first four games of the season they’ve looked good offensively, scoring an average of 4.25 goals per game on an average of 29.8 shots on goal. Their defense has slacked quite a bit, allowing a high average of 41 shots per game but the unlikely goaltending tandem of Eric Comrie and Craig Anderson (who’s likely in goal tonight) has come up huge, allowing an average of just 2.5 goals per game. The Canucks are still looking for their first win of the season, coming into tonight’s game with an 0-3-2 record. They come into tonight’s game off back to back 4-3 overtime losses on the road to the Wild and the Blue Jackets. In the five games they have played, Vancouver has scored an average of 3 goals per game on average of 31.4 and they’ve struggled defensively, allowing an average of 4.4 goals per game on an average of 31.2 shots allowed. Last year Buffalo won both games these two teams played. I’ll take my Sabres to keep the win streak going here on the west coast road trip for .7 units, bumping up my standard bet a little bit. I also considered the +1.5 and the regulation lines but I won’t get fancy and will just stick with the moneyline here.
Flames vs. Hurricanes (10:00)
These are two of the best teams in the NHL this season that have the possibility of meeting in the Stanley Cup Finals and last year they were two of the best defensive teams in the league. They’re both 3-1, coming off their first losses of the season. After looking fantastic in their first three wins of the season against the Avs, Oilers and Golden Knights, the Flames took their first loss of the year at the hands of my Buffalo Sabres on Thursday, losing 6-3. A shocker even to me, who has high hopes for my Sabres. Calgary outshot Buffalo 43-32 but that didn’t matter as last year’s Vezina candidate Jacob Markstrom got chased out of his net early in second period. He hasn’t been great this year with a 3.43 GAA, .862 save percentage in the limited sample size for his start to the season. The Hurricanes are coming off a 6-4 loss in Edmonton on Thursday in a very competitive and fun game where they outshot the Oilers 40-33. That was their first loss of the year after wins against the Kraken, Sharks and Blue Jackets (not the toughest competition in those games). These teams actually match up almost exactly though their first four games of the year. They’re both averaging 3.75 goals per game on an average of 38 shots on goal. They’ve both also allowed an average of just 26.8 shots on goal against them but Carolina has been better defensively, allowing an average of just 2.25 goals per game vs. the 3.5 that Calgary has given up. Last year the Hurricanes won both games between these two teams, which both played out quite differently with a 2-1 overtime win and a 6-3 win. I would expect a phenomenal, close game between these teams tonight that match up almost as perfectly as you could write up. I’d slightly lean the Flames just because they’re at home tonight but definitely wouldn’t bet on it. I don’t have any feel on the total either. This is the game every NHL fan should want to watch tonight but there’s no way anyone could have a real strong lean towards any bets on a side or total.
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche (10:00)
The Stanley Cup Champion Avs fucked me big time last night as they looked like a dud, losing 3-2 to the Kraken at home and getting outshot 38-20. Complete trash game for Colorado. They now have back to back losses after losing 4-3 in overtime at home to the Jets on Wednesday and come into tonight’s game with a 2-2-1 record. Their offense so far this season has been fine, scoring an average of 3.8 goals per game on an average of 30.2 shots on goal. Where they’ve struggled is defensively, allowing 3.4 goals per game on an average of 29.8 shots allowed. Vegas has looked awesome so far this year with a 4-1 start under new head coach Bruce Cassidy. They’re coming off a dominant 5-2 win against the Jets at home on Thursday where they got off to a 4-0 lead in the first period against Winnipeg’s lousy backup goalie David Rittich and rode that out the rest of the game. In their first five games of the season, they’ve scored an average of 3.4 goals per game on an average of 34.2 shots on goal. They’ve been good defensively as well with solid goaltending from Logan Thompson and Adin Hill, as they’ve allowed an average of just 2 goals on an average of 31.6 goals per game. In the regular season last year, Vegas was the only team I thought could have a chance at beating Colorado from a possible Wild card spot but then missed the playoffs. In the regular season, the Avs won two of the three games these teams played, all pretty close and hitting the under. I’d lslighly ean the Avalanche win on the road tonight to bounce back from their loss last night but not even close to enough to bet on it especially with the way the Knights offense has looked so far this season and Colorado on the road in the second half of a back to back. I like the over but at 6.5 juiced all the way up to -135, I don’t like betting it. I’ll stay off this game and probably watch it in the background as my Sabres hopefully take down the Canucks.
.5u Wild/Bruins over 6.5 (-110)
.5u Devils in regulation (-120)
.5u Oilers/Blues over 6.5 (-135)
.5u Senators in regulation (-157)
.5u Penguins ML (-165)
.5u Stars ML (-175)
.7u Sabres ML (+140)
Record: 39-36-1 (-8.98 units)
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