Broke even on yesterday’s small slate going 1-1, a goal short of a sweep. Tonight we have a big ten game slate since the NHL can’t balance their scheduling. Let’s get some wins!
Sabres vs. Canadiens (7:00)
The Sabres finished off their west coast road trip on Tuesday night in Seattle with a 5-1 loss, easily their worst game of the season after playing great earlier on that trip with wins against Vancouver, Calgary and Edmonton. Tonight we return home to face off against the Habs. Buffalo is 4-2 this season and the offense has been pretty solid, averaging 3.83 goals per game on an average of just 27 shots on goal. They’ve allowed an average of 2.67 goals per game on an average of 36.3 shots allowed, with great goaltending from Eric Comrie and Craig Anderson, which isn’t really sustainable and we saw that with all the defensive breakdowns in the Kraken game. Montreal is coming off back to losses at home to the Wild on Thursday (3-1) and Stars on Monday (5-2) to dropped to 3-4 on the season. The Habs have improved from last year as well. They’ve averaged 2.43 goals per game on an average of 29.1 shots on goal and they’ve allowed an average of 3 goals per game on an average of 31 shots on goal that they’ve given up. Montreal’s giving Jake Allen the night off with Sam Montembeault confirmed in goal. Last season the Sabres won three of the four games these teams played and I expect them to bounce back from that loss to Seattle on Thursday with a win tonight at home. I’ll lay the juice on the Sabres ML tonight for half a unit. I’d lean the over but not enough to bet on it.
Bruins vs. Red Wings (7:00)
The Bruins have looked phenomenal to start their season 6-1, playing great hockey on both ends of the ice. They’re coming into tonight’s game on a three game win streak, most recently a 3-1 win at home against the Stars on Tuesday. Offensively they’ve scored an average of 4.14 goals per game on an average of 35.6 shots they’ve generated. On the back end they’ve allowed an average of 2.86 goals per game on an average of 31.4 shots allowed per game. The Red Wings got blown out 6-2 by the Devils on Tuesday night but haven’t been too bad this season with a 3-1-2 record coming into tonight’s game. They’ve scored an average of 3.67 goals per game on an average of 31 shots on goal and with the addition of great goaltending from Ville Husso (2.00 GAA, .939 save percentage) they’ve allowed an average of 3 goals per game on the 34.5 shots they’ve allowed on average. Last year these Atlantic Division teams split their four games with the Bruins wins coming in dominant 5-1 victories. I like Boston to win here tonight but the -250 moneyline is too expensive for me to bet in this spot. I will reduce some of that juice and take the B’s in regulation for half a unit.
Senators vs. Wild (7:00)
Ottawa’s getting hot, rattling off four wins in a row to move to 4-2 on the season after opening their year with losses to the Sabres and Leafs. They come off a 4-2 win against the Stars on Monday. Their young offense has been very good, scoring an average of 4.17 goals per game on an average of 33.8 shots on goal per game. Defensively they’ve been fine, allowing an average of 3 goals per game on an average of 29.8 shots on goal. The Wild got a much needed 3-1 win in Montreal on Tuesday, just their second of the season in their slow 2-3-1 start. This much disappointing team has been fine offensively, scoring an average of 3.67 goals per game but they’ve struggled mightily on the back end, allowing an average of 4.67 goals per game on 33.8 shots per game with quite shockingly lousy goaltending from Fleury (4.3 GAA, .869 save percentage). Last year in the those games these cross conference teams played, they split those games with a 5-4 Wild win and 4-3 Senators win. The Wild are still the better team in this game and I’d lean they win but with the way Ottawa’s offense has been clicking and the Sens at home, I’ll stay off betting a side in this game. I do expect both teams to be able to score tonight though and I’ll take the over in this game for half a unit.
Flyers vs. Panthers (7:00)
Torts got his Flyers over exceeding exceptions in their 4-2 start to the season but they’re coming back down to Earth with two losses in their last three games, most recently getting shut out 3-0 by the Sharks at home on Sunday. I’d bet the over on the amount of times Tortorella’s bag skated his guys since then. On the season Philly has scored an average of 2.83 goals per game on an average of 28 shots on goal. Carter Hart has been fantastic in goal with a 1.75 GAA and .949 save percentage and with his play between the pipes the Flyers have allowed an average of 2.33 goals per game on an average of 33 shots on goal allowed per game. The Panthers are coming off a loss as well, surprisingly losing 4-2 in Chicago on Tuesday night and they’re now 4-2-1 on the year. They’ve both scored and allowed an average of 3 goals per game this season while outshooting their competition 34.9-29.6 on average. Last season the Panthers swept the Flyers in their three games and they started the season series against them last Wednesday with a 4-3 win in Florida (with my puck line losing on a Travis Konecny goal with just three seconds left in the game). Tonight with the game in Philly the price is a bit cheaper than that last game but the moneyline is still a bit too pricey, so I’ll just take the Panthers in regulation for half a unit. I’d lean the under but not enough to bet on it.
Predators vs. Blues (8:00)
Last night the Blues took their second loss in a row, losing 3-1 at home to the Oilers in a close game where they outshot Edmonton 38-28. St. Louis is now 3-2 on the season. They’ve both scored and allowed an average of 2.4 goals per game, struggling offensively but playing fine defensively, getting outshot by an average of 27.6-30.8 in their five games so far this year. The Blues will likely be starting backup Thomas Greiss tonight in goal since Jordan Binnington got the start for them last night. The Predators after opening their season with back to back wins in Prague against the Sharks still haven’t gotten a win in North America, coming into tonight’s game on a five game losing streak with a 2-4-1 record. Nashville’s had five days off since their 3-1 loss at home to the Flyers on Saturday night. Their offense has struggled a ton, scoring an average of only 2.29 goals per game on an average of 28.9 shots on goal per game. Defensively they’ve been okay, allowing an average of 3.29 goals per game on an average of 31 shots on goal. Last year the Blues won three of the four games between these Central Division teams with all four games easily hitting the over. I’d lean the Preds get a win at home tonight in Smashville and the over but not enough to bet anything on this game, especially on the price for the Preds and I’ll just skip it completely.
Blackhawks vs. Oilers (8:30)
The Oilers got a big win last night in St. Louis, beating the Blues 3-1 while getting outshot 38-28. Edmonton is now 4-3 with three wins in their last four games. McDavid, Draisaitl and the Oilers offense have been good, a surprise to no one, averaging 3.57 goals per game on an average of 33.3 goals per game. Their defense has allowed an average of 3 goals per game on an average of 33.9 shots they’ve allowed. Jack Campbell has struggled a bit in goal since coming over from Toronto, with a 3.62 GAA and .895 save percentage in his five starts this year. The Blackhawks are SHOCKINGLY on a four game win streak, coming off a 4-2 win against the Panthers on Tuesday and they’re now 4-2 on the season and are undefeated through their three games at home.
They’ve been overachieving on both ends of the ice, scoring an average of 3.33 goals per game on a low average of only 24.5 shots on goal per game and they’ve allowed an average of 2.83 goals on an average of 31.8 shots allowed. Last year despite being a much worse team than Edmonton, the Hawks beat them in two of the three games these teams played and two of those three games hit the over. The Oilers are obviously the way better team in this game and they should win but on the second half of a back to back and on the road with a -210 price, I’m not betting on it with the way the Blackhawks keep winning so I’ll stay off a side here. I like the over though and will take the alternate over 6 here for half a unit (don’t mind the 6.5 but would rather lay the bit of extra juice on the 6).
Stars vs. Capitals (8:30)
Dallas started their season hot but lost three of their last four games to come into tonight’s game with a 4-2-1 record, winning both of their home games. They’re coming off a 3-1 loss to the Bruins on Tuesday and a 4-2 loss to the Sens the night before. Dallas has been good statistically on the season on both ends of the ice. They’ve scored an average of 3.29 goals per game on an average of 28.6 shots per game and they have allowed just 2.14 goals per game on an average of 32.1 shots on goal they’ve given up. The Caps have won four of their last five games to move to 4-3 on the season, coming off a huge 6-3 win in New Jersey on Monday (loss for me taking the Devils). Ovi and the Capitals offense has scored an average of 3.57 goals per game on an average of 28.3 shots on goal per game. Defensively they’ve struggled a bit, allowing an average of 3.43 goals per game on an average of 33.1 shots they’ve given up. Last season these teams split their two games with a 5-0 shutout win for Washington and a 3-2 win for Dallas. I don’t really have any feel on this game with both the side and total being essentially coin flips to me in what could be a fun matchup to watch and I’ll stay off this game.
Kraken vs. Canucks (10:00)
The Canucks have been the worst team in the NHL to start off this season and are still looking for their first win, coming into tonight’s game with a terrible 0-5-2 record with fans throwing shit on the ice already and the whole organization blaming each other for the failures of this team so far. Vancouver has struggled on both ends of the ice. They’ve scored an average of 2.57 goals per game on an average of 29 shots per game and have been very bad on the back end, allowing an average of 4.29 goals per game on 31.7 shots allowed on average. Thatcher Demko’s been terrible in net with a 4.06 GAA and .872 save percentage with bad defense in front of him. The Kraken are 3-3-2, coming off a dominant 5-1 win against the Sabres on Tuesday that I hated sitting there and watching 60 minutes of. Seattle’s offense has scored an average of 3.25 goals per game on an average of 32.1 shots per game. They’ve been solid defensively allowing just 26.1 shots on goal but their goaltending hasn’t been great with the team allowing an average of 3.5 goals per game. Last year Vancouver swept the season series between these teams with three 5-2 wins and a 4-2 win. The Kraken should get their first ever win against Vancouver tonight and I’ll take them for half a unit along with the alternate over 6, expecting both teams to bleed away goals (the 6.5 is fine too).
Kings vs. Jets (10:30)
This is a sneaky fun matchup out West tonight. The Kings are 4-4, coming off a big 4-2 win at home against the Lightning on Tuesday night (loss for me). Their offense has improved from last season, averaging 3.38 goals per game on an average of 32.6 shots on goal but they’ve struggled quite a bit defensively so far this year, something they excelled in last year. Their goaltending from Quick (3.59 GAA, .893 save percentage) and Petersen (4.97 GAA, .842 save percentage) hasn’t been good at all and they’ve allowed an average of 4.13 goals per game on an average of 33 shots they’ve given up per game. The Jets are 3-3, coming off a big win as well, shutting out the Blues in a 4-0 victory at home on Monday night. Winnipeg hasn’t gotten much going offensively, averaging 2.67 goals per game on an average of 31.5 shots. They’ve been good defensively, backstopped by one of the best goalies in the league in Connor Hellebuyck (2.2 GAA, .929 save percentage) and the Jets have allowed an average of 2.83 goals per game on 31.3 shots allowed on average. Last year the Jets won two of the three games these teams played in with all three games decided by a 3-2 score. I think this ends up won by the team that dictates play and could be a good spot for some live betting opportunities. If it ends up being a defensive game that looks to be going under I would lean the Jets win but if it ends up being a high scoring run and gun game, I’d expect the Kings to win. I’ll stay off this one pregame and maybe evaluate live betting it early (which I’ll tweet out if I do). If I had to have a lean, I’d slightly lean the Jets get it done in a low scoring game on the road.
Sharks vs. Maple Leafs (10:30)
The Sharks have been pretty horrible this season, coming into tonight’s cross conference game with a 2-7 record off a 4-2 loss to the Golden Knights on Tuesday. San Jose’s offense has been pathetic, scoring an average of only 1.89 goals per game and only generating an average of 26.9 shots per game. Defensively, they’ve given up an average of 3 goals per game on an average of 30.7 shots on goal. The Leafs are coming off a loss to Vegas as well, losing 3-1 in Vegas on Monday to drop to 4-3 on the season. Toronto’s very pricey offense hasn’t produced to the level of their salaries, averaging 2.71 goals per game on an average of 32.1 shots. They’ve been capable enough defensively, allowing an average of 2.57 goals per game on an average of 26.9 shots allowed. Erik Kallgren will get his second start of the season tonight in goal for the Leafs with Ilya Samsonov getting the night off and Matt Murray out with injury. I don’t really trust Kallgren a whole lot, who had a 3.05 GAA and .833 save percentage in Toronto’s 4-2 loss to the Coyotes ten days ago. Last year these teams split their games with a 5-3 Sharks win and a 4-1 Leafs win. I don’t really trust the Leafs but this is a good bounce back spot for them against a very weak Sharks team that can’t score. I’m definitely not laying the -225 juice on the moneyline with the Leafs on the road with Kallgren but I’ll take a shot here for half a unit on Toronto in regulation. I’d lean the under too but not enough to bet on it. Please don’t blow Leafs blow tonight.
.5u Sabres ML (-180)
.5u Bruins in regulation (-150)
.5u Wild/Senators over 6.5 (-118)
.5u Panthers in regulation (-129)
.5u Oilers/Blackhawks over 6 (-144)
.5u Kraken ML (-125)
.5u Kraken/Canucks over 6 (-136)
.5u Leafs in regulation (-136)
Record: 53-47-2 (-8.44 units)
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