My two biggest bets on the Devils in regulation and Isles in regulation lost, swinging last night to the red, losing 1.18 units despite going a solid 8-4 and reading most games correctly. Tonight we just have a small four game NHL slate.
I’m adding my first futures of the season which I see a lot of value in right now. On the Western Conference side, I will add the Golden Knights for 2 units. In the East, I’ll take the Bruins and Hurricanes each for 1.5 units. I see these three teams as contenders to win the Cup, all of which have solid value that I see going down in price through the season.
Maple Leafs vs. Penguins (7:00)
The Leafs three game losing streak came to an end on Tuesday with a 4-3 overtime loss at home to the Golden Knights and they’re now 7-4-3 on the season with a 5-1-1 record at home this year. Toronto’s offense has scored an average of 2.86 goals per game on an average of 31.3 shots on goal per game. Defensively, they’ve allowed an average of 2.71 goals per game on an average of 27.4 shots allowed. With both Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov
hey’ll be starting Erik Kallgren in goal tonight who has a 2.99 GAA, .890 save percentage and just one win in his five starts this season. The Penguins finally ended their seven game losing streak with a 4-1 win in Washington on Wednesday and now come into tonight’s game with a 5-6-2 record. They’ve been pretty good offensively, even through the losing streak, averaging 3.54 goals per game on the season on an average of 35.3 shots allowed. Defensively they’ve been pretty terrible though, allowing an average of 3.46 goals per game on an average of 34.1 shots allowed. They’ll be starting Casey DeSmith tonight who has a 1-3-1 record, 2.8 GAA and .913 save percentage. Last year the Penguins won two of the three games between these teams. I’d slightly lean the Leafs win tonight but not enough to bet on it. I do like the over though, which I’ll take for half a unit.
Capitals vs. Lightning (7:00)
The Caps are 6-7-2 on the season and have struggled with a ton of injuries so far this season. They’re coming off a 4-1 loss to the Penguins on Wednesday and just have one win in their last six games. Washington has struggled to score this season, averaging 2.73 goals per game on an average of 28.5 shots on goal. They’ve allowed an average of 3 goals per game on an average of 31.2 shots allowed. The Lightning are 7-5-1, coming off a 3-2 loss to McDavid and the Oilers on Tuesday. Tampa’s played good hockey as of late and they’re 4-1-1 in their last six games. They have been good offensively, scoring an average of 3.23 goals per game on an average of 31.2 shots on goal. Defensively, they’ve been a bit worse than I expected, allowing an average of 3.08 goals per game on an average of 31.8 shots allowed but they’re projected to start one of the best goalies in the league in Andrei Vasilevskiy in goal tonight. All three games between these teams last season were decided by just a goal with Tampa winning two of the three. With a still depleted Caps team, coming off a big win against their rivals Wednesday, I like Tampa to win here to bounce back from their loss to Edmonton. I’ll go with the Lightning here for a unit with a price that’s cheaper than I expected it to be. I’d lean the over but not enough to bet it.
Stars vs. Sharks (8:30)
The Stars look to bounce back tonight, returning home from their 5-1 loss in Winnipeg on Tuesday night that ended their three game losing streak. Dallas is 8-4-1 coming into tonight with a 4-1 record at home. They’ve been really solid on both ends of the ice so far this season. They are averaging 3.62 goals per game on an average of 30.3 shots per game and they’ve allowed an average of just 2.46 goals per game on an average of 31.1 shots allowed. The Sharks are on the second half of a back to back after losing 5-3 in St. Louis last night, with the Blues snapping an eight game losing streak. San Jose’s been pretty terrible with a 3-9-3 record, coming into tonight on a five game losing streak. On the season they’ve scored an average of just 2.6 goals per game on an average of 31 shots per game, but have improved more recently, scoring at least three goals in each of their last six games (but only winning one of those). Defensively they’ve been pretty bad too, allowing an average of 3.4 goals per game on an average of 31.5 shots allowed. Last year Dallas won two of the three games between these teams, which were all decided by just a goal. I like the Stars to win pretty easily tonight, but the moneyline is a bit too expensive for me at -240. I’ll go with 1.5 units on the Stars in regulation along with half a unit on the Sharks TT under 2.5 in regulation.
Kraken vs. Wild (10:00)
This could actually be a fun matchup. The Kraken improved a ton from last season and they’re on a five game win streak to improve to 8-4-2 on the season, coming off a big 5-1 win against the Predators on Tuesday. Their offense has been pretty good, scoring an average of 3.57 goals per game on an average of 30 shots per game. Defensively they’ve improved a bit as well, allowing an average of 2.93 goals per game on an average of 27.5 shots allowed. Minnesota won 4-1 in Anaheim on Wednesday, to bounce back from being shut out twice in a row (against LA and Seattle) and move to 6-6-1 on the season. The Wild haven’t been great and have taken a step back on both ends of the ice. They’re averaging 2.92 goals per game on an average of 32.6 shots on goal. They’ve been better defensively as of late but on the season, they’ve allowed an average of 3.23 goals per game on an average of 31 shots allowed. Marc Andre Fleury still has a 3.17 GAA and a sub .900 save percentage at .896. These teams already played this season on November 3rd in Minnesota with the Kraken getting a 4-0 shutout win. Last season the Wild won two of their three games against Seattle in their expansion season. I’d lean the Wild get their revenge with a win on the road tonight but not enough to bet on it, especially with no statistics to back it up. I’d slightly lean the under but not enough to bet that either so I will just lay off this game.
Game Bets
.5u Maple Leafs/Penguins over 6.5 (-110)
1u Lightning ML (-145)
1.5u Stars in regulation (-143)
.5u Sharks TT under 2.5 in regulation (-152)
Futures
1.5u Boston Bruins – Stanley Cup Champions (+1100)
2u Vegas Golden Knights – Stanley Cup Champions (+1200)
1.5u Carolina Hurricanes – Stanley Cup Champions (+1300)
Record: 104-94-2 (-16.77 units)
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