NHL Daily Gambling Preview – 11/12/22

I’m so fucking sick of losing NHL bets with all the analysis I do on a daily basis. Last night was a disaster as I got reverse swept, going 0-4 to lose 4.9 units. Horrible. Today we have a giant 13 game slate. I’ll have very few plays today while continuing to analyze every game.

No video today, I’m taking my sweet time writing this blog this morning.

Flyers vs. Senators (1:00)

The Senators are on a terrible seven game losing streak after opening the season 4-2. They’re now 4-8-1 on the year and struggling quite a bit. They did play a solid game on Thursday night, taking the Devils to overtime before losing 4-3 (which lost my second biggest bet of the day on NJ in regulation). Ottawa’s struggled on the defensive end of the ice, allowing an average of 3.69 goals per game on an average of 33.8 shots allowed but they’ve been pretty good offensively, scoring an average of 3.46 goals per game on an average of 32.5 shots per game. Despite losing 5-2 in Columbus on Thursday against one of the worst teams in the league in the Blue Jackets, the Flyers under Torts are still overachieving, coming into today’s game with a 7-4-2 record with a 4-1-1 record at home. Philly’s scoring an average 2.69 goals per game on an average of 27.7 shots per game. Defensively, they’ve allowed an average of 35.2 shots per game but they’ve gotten phenomenal goaltending from Carter Hart, stealing games away with a 2.09 GAA, .941 save percentage and two shutouts already this year for the Flyers to allow an average of just 2.62 goals per game. On November 5th in Ottawa when these teams played their first game between each other this season, the Flyers grinded out a 2-1 win on the road and last year the Sens won two of the three games these teams played. I’d lean Carter Hart steals another win here for the Flyers on the road and would lean the under as well but not enough to bet on either. I’ll pass on this game.

Panthers vs. Oilers (4:00)

Connor McDavid, who leads the NHL in scoring with 31 points (15 goals, 16 assists) scored another incredibly jaw dropping goal on Thursday night but it wasn’t nearly enough as his Oilers got blown out 7-2 in Carolina. Edmonton is 8-7 on the season and they’ve struggled defensively a ton as of late, unable to outscore their problems on the back end with only one win in their last five games. Their offense is obviously very good, scoring an average of 3.67 goals per game on an average of 32.1 shots per game but they’ve been terrible defensively, allowing an average of 3.73 goals per game on an average of 34.5 shots per game. Jack Campbell, who’s projected to start in goal today has been horrendous in between the pipes with a 4.27 GAA and .873 save percentage. Florida’s 8-5-1 on the season and have played better hockey recently with three wins in their last four games, coming off a big 3-0 shutout victory against Carolina on Wednesday. The Panthers have been good offensively, scoring an average of 3.21 goals per game on a high average of 40.1 goals per game. Defensively they haven’t been great, allowing an average of 3 goals per game on an average of 30.6 shots per game. These teams split their two games last season with a 6-0 Panthers shutout win and a 4-3 Oilers win. I’d slightly lean the Panthers here, but not nearly enough to bet on them at -175, which I think is an inflated price even with them at home. I do like the over but with the line at 7 and the alternate 6.5 juiced all the way up to -159 and me on a horrible stretch to start this season on a betting perspective, I’ll just stay off this one.

Sabres vs. Bruins (7:00)

On Thursday, in a game that went pretty much exactly as I expected with Jack Eichel and the Golden Knights returning to town as the Sabres took their fourth straight loss to drop to 7-7 on the season. We actually hung in pretty well in that game, which was a ton of fun to watch but with Eichel’s third period hat trick in a four point performance, the Sabres lost 7-4. Buffalo’s offense has been surprisingly good so far this season, scoring an average of 3.86 goals per game on average of 32 shots per game. Their goaltending from Comrie has been pretty bad lately after a decent start to the season who now has a 3.62 GAA and .885 save percentage with the Sabres allowing an average of 3.5 goals per game on an average of 31.4 shots per game. They are projected to start Craig Anderson tonight though who has a pretty good 2.25 GAA and .927 save percentage. The Bruins are the best team in the East with a 12-2 record, coming off a 3-1 win against the Flames on Thursday night. They’ve been fantastic on both ends of the ice. They’re averaging 4 goals per game on an average of 34.3 shots per game and they’ve allowed just 2.29 goals per game on an average of 30.3 shots allowed. Linus Ullmark is projected to start against his former team tonight and has been fantastic in goal this season with a 1.95 GAA, .936 save percentage and a shutout this season. The B’s have historically owned us and last year was no different, sweeping us in the four games we played with only one of those games being by less than three goals. I expect the Bruins to beat us at home tonight and I’ll go with two units on the Bruins in regulation. I don’t mind the -195 moneyline since that’s a fair price to me but I’m not laying the juice on that.

Canadiens vs. Penguins (7:00)

After going on a seven game losing streak, the Penguins bounced back with wins on the road in their last two games to improve to 6-6-2 on the season. They beat their rival Caps in a pretty easy win 4-1 on Wednesday and last night they beat the Leafs 4-2 in Toronto (coming a goal short of hitting my over). Pittsburgh’s veteran lead offense has bee pretty good, averaging 3.57 goals per game on an average of 34.4 shots per game. They’ve been lousy defensively though, allowing an average of 3.36 goals per game on an average of 33.8 shots per game. The Habs have improved a lot from last season, coming into tonight’s game with a 7-6-1 record off back to back wins on Tuesday and Wednesday against the Red Wings and Canucks. They haven’t been great on either end of the ice but that is an improvement from how bad they were last year. Montreal has scored an average of 2.93 goals per game on an average of 29.5 shots per game and have allowed an average of 3.14 goals per game on an average of 34.1 shots per game. The Canadiens already have a win against Pitt this season, beating the Pens 3-2 in overtime on October 17th. Last year the Pens won two of the three games between these teams with a 6-0 shutout win and 5-2 win along with a 6-3 loss. I’d lean the Penguins win here on the road because they have much more talent than the Habs do, but not enough to bet on it. I’d also slightly lean the over but not enough to bet it.

Devils vs. Coyotes (7:00)

I don’t understand how in the fuck the Coyotes keep finding ways to win because this team is big time bad but they’ve won their last three straight games. They’re coming off giving me my biggest loss of the season after shutting out the Islanders in a 2-0 win on Thursday night after beating my Sabres 4-1 on Tuesday. I thought the Isles were gonna shut them out on Thursday but it went the opposite way. Arizona’s now on a three game win streak with a 6-6-1 record. Their offense has scored an average of 2.85 goals per game, despite generating the fewest high danger chances in the NHL on an average of just 23.8 shots per game. Defensively they haven’t been good either, allowing an average of 3.54 goals per game on an average of 35.7 shots per game. The Devils have been one of the best teams in the NHL so far this season, really impressing me this season. They’re playing incredible hockey and come into tonight’s game with an 11-3 record on an eight game win streak after their 4-3 overtime win against the Senators on Thursday that gave me my second biggest loss of the night since they needed OT to win. Their offense has been fantastic, scoring an average of 3.64 goals per game on an average of 37.9 shots per game, leading the NHL in expected goal share and high danger scoring chances. Despite not having great goaltending, they’ve allowed an average of just 2.57 shots per game on an average of 24.9 shots allowed. Last year these teams split their two games with a 4-1 Coyotes win and a 6-2 Devils win. New Jersey has played incredible hockey this season and even though the Yotes keep winning somehow they’re one of the worst teams in the NHL this season. You can’t bet the ML in this game at -335, but I’ll go back to the well here with the Devils in regulation for a unit and lay the juice on that.

Maple Leafs vs. Canucks (7:00)

The talent discrepancy in these cross conference Canadian teams is pretty huge but I have almost no interest in betting this game. The Leafs, as usual, have been a disappointment so far to start this season. They’re 7-5-3 on the season, coming off two losses in a row after a 4-2 loss at home to the Penguins last night. Toronto has been disappointing offensively and they’ve both scored and allowed an average of 2.8 goals per game this season, outshooting their competition by an average of 31.2-27.1 shots per game. Matt Murray is projected to make his return from injury tonight for the Leafs in between the pipes. In his opening night start for Toronto he had a 4.05 GAA with an .826 save percentage in his 4-3 loss in Montreal. The Canucks have been pretty lousy this season with a 4-7-3 record, coming off a 5-2 loss in Montreal on Wednesday. Their offense has been pretty good, averaging 3.5 goals per game on an average of 30.5 shots per game. They’ve been horrible defensively though, allowing an average of 4.07 goals per game on an average of 32.9 shots allowed with terrible goaltending. Thatcher Demko, who is projected to start in goal tonight and was pretty good last season has fucking sucked this year with a 4.01 GAA and .874 save percentage with only one win in his ten starts this season. Vancouver won both games these teams played last season with 3-2 and 6-4 wins. I’d expect the Leafs to win this game and would slightly lean the over but I’m not betting this game. Blow Leafs Blow.

Islanders vs. Blue Jackets (7:30)

The Islanders shocked me on Thursday night, getting shut out 2-0 at home by the shitty fucking Coyotes, giving up two goals in the third period in a game that I expected the Isles to get a shutout win of their own, giving me my biggest loss of the season. That loss dropped the Isles to 9-6 on the season with just their second loss in their last nine games. They’ve been very good on both ends of the ice this year. They’re scoring an average of 3.27 goals per game on 31.3 shots per game and have allowed an average of 2.53 goals per game on an average of 32.7 shots allowed. Ilya Sorokin is likely to start in goal tonight and has been great this season with a 2.09 GAA, .936 save percentage and a shutout in his ten starts this year even though he doesn’t have a great record at 6-4. The Blue Jackets have sucked, coming off a 5-2 win at home against the Flyers on Thursday to end their five game losing streak after returning from back to back losses in Finland to the Avalanche where they got blown out in both those games. Columbus has been pretty bad on both ends of the ice. They’re scoring an average of just 2.69 goals per game on an average of 30.5 shots per game and they’ve been the worst team in the NHL defensively, allowing an average of 4.39 goals per game on an average of 35.4 shots they’ve given up per game. The Isles won three of the four games between these Metro Division teams last season. I like the Islanders to bounce back from their Thursday loss with a big win here and will take them to win in regulation for a unit.

Predators vs. Rangers (8:00)

From going six games in the Eastern Conference Finals last season against the Lightning in a series that they arguably could’ve won if some pucks bounced their way, the Rangers have been a big disappointment so far this season. They’re 7-5-3, haven’t been all that special on either end of the ice and have pretty much been a mid tier team this year. They did end their three game losing streak though on Thursday with a very dominant 8-2 win in Detroit. On the season, the Rags have scored an average of 3.13 goals per game this season on an average of 34.9 shots per game. Even with Vezina winner Igor Shesterkin in goal, they’ve allowed an average of 2.93 goals per game on an average of 28.7 shots per game they’ve allowed. The Predators, coming off a 5-3 loss in Colorado on Thursday (hit my over easily in that game) have been very disappointing this season with a 5-8-1 record. Their offense has only mustered up an average of 2.64 goals per game on an average of 30.2 shots per game. With Juuse Saros in goal, who’s a very good goalie, Nashville’s been lousy on the back end too, allowing an average of 3.5 goals per game on an average of 32.4 shots allowed this season. Last year these teams split their two games, both in very low scoring games which you’d expect in Saros vs. Igor matchups with a 3-1 Rangers win and a 1-0 Preds shutout win. I’d lean the Rangers win tonight on the road and the over hits here, but not enough to bet on either so I will just stay off this game completely.

Avalanche vs. Hurricanes (9:00)

This should be a fun game tonight. The Avs come into tonight on a three game win streak after a 5-3 win against the Preds to improve to 7-4-1 on the season after winning the Cup last year. Colorado has been good offensively, scoring an average of 3.67 goals per game. Defensively they’ve taken a bit of a step back, allowing an average of 2.83 goals per game on an average of 33.6 shots allowed. The Hurricanes, who I bet a future on yesterday to win the Stanley Cup, bounced back from losing two games in a row against Toronto and Florida with a huge, dominant 7-2 win against McDavid and the Oilers on Thursday. That win improved the Canes to 9-4-1 on the season. Carolina has scored an average of 3.14 goals per game on an average of 36.9 shots per game and they’ve allowed an average of 2.79 goals per game on an average of 26.2 shots allowed. These teams split their games last year with a 2-0 shutout win for the Canes and a 7-4 win for the Avalanche. I’d lean the Avs win here tonight at home in a close, higher scoring game but this is too close of a matchup for me to bet on so I will just stay off it.

Ducks vs. Blackhawks (10:00)

This is such a shitty game between two lousy teams. Both of these teams suck. The Ducks are 4-9-1 on the season, coming off a 4-1 loss to the Ducks at home on Wednesday. Their offense has scored an average of 2.71 goals per game on an average of 29.4 shots per game. They’ve been horrendous defensively, allowing a high average of 4.57 goals per game on an average of 40.4 shots allowed. The Blackhawks started their season over exceeding expectations but they’ve regressed back to what everyone expected out of this shitty team with just one win in their last seven games. They’ve scored an average of just 2.69 goals per game on an average of 26 shots per game and they’ve allowed an average of 3.08 goals per game on an average of 34.4 shots allowed. Last year the Blackhawks swept all three games between these teams with 3-0, 8-3 and 4-2 wins. I’d slightly lean the over between these shitty teams, but I’m not betting on this game and I’ll just lay off it.

Flames vs. Jets (10:00)

This is an interesting matchup. Going into this season, the Flames were my pick to win the Stanley Cup but they have not been good to start the year. They’re 5-6-2 on the season and after a 3-1 loss in Boston on Thursday, they’re now on a seven game losing streak. Calgary hasn’t done much to prove they are a good team on either end of the ice. They’ve averaged 2.92 goals per game on an average of 36.5 shots per game. Defensively, they’ve allowed an average of 3.31 goals per game on an average of 28.2 shots allowed. The Jets are playing great right now, coming into tonight’s game on a three game win streak after a 5-1 win against the Stars on Tuesday and they’re now a pretty solid 8-3-1 on the year. They’ve played great hockey lately with a 6-0-1 record in their last seven games. Winnipeg has improved offensively this season, scoring an average of 3.17 goals per game on the season on an average of 31.1 shots per game. Defensively with a great goalie in Connor Hellebuyck, they’ve allowed an average of just 2.33 goals per game on an average of 31.3 shots allowed per game this year. Even though the Flames were the much better team last season, the Jets won two of the three games between them last year, winning 4-2 and 3-1 and losing 3-1. I’d slightly lean the Flames win at home to get off their losing streak and would also lean the under here but not enough to bet either, so I’ll just stay off this game completely.

Golden Knights vs. Blues (10:00)

Jack Eichel and the Golden Knights came into Buffalo on Thursday for the second time since his trade two years ago. Jack got his revenge big time with a natural hat trick in the third period in a four point performance on the way to a 7-4 Vegas victory that went pretty much exactly as I expected it to. The Golden Knights after missing the playoffs last year have come out with a vengeance, opening the season with a 13-2 record to lead the Western Conference. This team looks good and yesterday I loaded up on them with futures for VGK to win the Stanley Cup. Vegas has been very good on both ends of the ice. They’re scoring an average of 3.8 goals per game on an average of 33.4 shots per game and they’ve been great defensively, allowing an average of just 2.27 goals per game on an average of 30.3 shots allowed per game. The Blues have been horrendous but ended their eight game losing streak with a 5-3 win at home against San Jose on Thursday for just their fourth win of the season after opening the year 3-0. St. Louis has been pretty bad on both ends of the ice. They’ve scored an average of just 2.33 goals per game on an average of 29.4 shots per game while allowing a pretty high average of 3.83 goals per game on an average of 31.9 shots per game they’ve given up. The Blues won two of the three games between these teams last year with a 3-1 win, 5-2 win and 7-4 loss. I like Vegas to keep their win streak going with a win at home tonight and will take them to win in regulation for half a unit.

Kings vs. Red Wings (10:30)

The Kings come into tonight’s game on a three game winning streak after beaiting the Blackhawks 2-1 on Thursday. They’re 9-6-1 on the season, improving offensively but taking a big step backwards on the back end from last season. They’ve scored an average of 3.19 goals per game this year on an average of 33.3 shots per game but they’ve allowed an average of 3.38 goals per game on an average of 30.6 shots allowed. The Red Wings have improved a ton from a season ago and they’re 7-4-3 on the season, coming in with two losses in a row after an 8-2 blowout loss by the Rangers on Thursday. Detroit has averaged 2.93 goals per game on an average of 29.2 shots per game and they’ve allowed an average of 3.21 goals per game on an average of 33.6 shots allowed. These cross conference teams already played once this season on a very entertaining back and forth game on October 17th with the Kings winning 5-4 in overtime on October 17th along with winning both games they played last season by scores of 4-0 and 5-3. I’d lean the Kings win at home and the over but wouldn’t bet this game, so I’ll just stay off it.

Game Bets

2u Bruins in regulation (-118)

1u Devils in regulation (-190)

1u Islanders in regulation (-143)

.5u Golden Knights in regulation (-129)

Futures

1.5u Boston Bruins – Stanley Cup Champions (+1100)

2u Vegas Golden Knights – Stanley Cup Champions (+1200)

1.5u Carolina Hurricanes – Stanley Cup Champions (+1300)

Record: 104-98-2 (-21.67 units)

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