NHL Daily Gambling Preview – 11/19/22

On yesterday one game, I went 0-2 to lose 1.05 units. After having just that one game last night, we have the biggest slate of the season today with 15 games. Let’s win!!

No video today, way too many games so instead of rushing to get the whole slate done by 1, I’ll take my time and update the blog later.

Senators vs. Devils (1:00)

The Devils are the biggest wagon in the NHL to start this season. After a 3-2 overtime win in Toronto on Thursday night, they’re now on an eleven game win streak with an impressive 14-3 record. Their offense has generated the most expected goals and high danger scoring chances of any team in the NHL this season, averaging 3.71 goals per game on a average of 36.9 shots per game. Defensively they have been very good also, allowing an average of just 2.41 goals per game on an average of 24.6 shots allowed. The Senators are coming off a 4-1 win against my Sabres on Wednesday but they’ve struggled with just two wins in their last ten games to come into today’s game with a 6-9-1 record. They’ve been decent offensively, scoring an average of 3.44 goals per game on an average of 32.9 shots per game but they’ve struggled on the back end, allowing an average of 3.38 goals per game on an average of 33.9 shots allowed. The Devils needed overtime to beat the Sens the first time these teams played this season, getting a 4-3 victory at home on November 10th in a game where they outshot Ottawa 41-28. Last year the Senators beat New Jersey in all three games they played last season with two of those going to overtime. I like the Devils to win here in an easier game on the road than the first matchup these teams played and will take them for a unit.

Panthers vs. Flames (4:00)

Fun afternoon matchup here between these cross conference teams that have actually played pretty similar hockey thus far this season. Florida’s 9-7-1 on the season and coming off a 6-4 loss at home on Thursday against Dallas where they outshot the Stars 44-29 but couldn’t get out of the 4-0 hole they were in after the first period. The Panthers have actually generated a ton of chances with an average of 40.6 shots per game, scoring an average of 3.29 goals per game. On the back end they’ve struggled a little bit, allowing an average of 3.18 goals per game on an average of 31.4 shots allowed per game. The Flames are 7-7-2, coming off a 4-1 loss in Tampa on Thursday. They’ve generated a lot of chances too, scoring an average of 3 goals per game on an average of 36.3 shots per game. Defensively they’ve struggled more than Florida has, allowing an average of 3.38 goals per game on an average of 27.6 shots per game. Last year these teams split their two games in both high scoring matchups with a 6-2 Panthers win and 5-1 Calgary win. I’d slightly lean Florida wins at home but not enough to bet on it. I expect a high scoring game though and I’ll take the alternate over 6 here for half a unit.

Maple Leafs vs. Sabres (7:00)

My Sabres are on a pretty bad losing streak, losing their last seven straight after a 4-1 loss in Ottawa on Wednesday and although their offense has been pretty good, Buffalo’s playing quite poorly on the back end. On the season, we’ve scored an average of 3.53 goals per game on an average of 31.8 shots per game but have allowed an average of 3.59 goals per game on an average of 31.9 shots per game. With Eric Comrie getting hurt halfway through the game on Wednesday and put on IR, Craig Anderson will have to carry the load in goal for the Sabres but they did call up Ukko Pekka Luukkonen who will likely get his first start of the year tonight. The Leafs are coming off a 3-2 overtime loss to the Devils at home on Thursday night (winner for me) and are now 9-5-4 on the season with just two wins in their last five games. They’ve been pretty much league average on the year on both ends of the ice, scoring an average of 2.89 goals per game on an average of 31.2 shots per game and they’ve allowed an average of 2.72 goals per game on an average of 28.1 shots per game given up. Last year despite Toronto being a way better team than us, the Sabres went 3-1 against them and played great hockey against the Leafs, beating them 5-1, 5-2 and 5-2 with the loss coming 5-4 in a competitive game. The Leafs should win here at home but the line on this is way off at -278. I think the Sabres at least keep this game close and might even win. I’ll take the Sabres +1.5 for half a unit at pretty much a pick em price. I’d slightly lean the over but not enough to bet on it.

Bruins vs. Blackhawks (7:00)

The Bruins have been incredible this season, the best team in the NHL through their first 17 games of the season with a 15-2 record. Coming off a 4-1 win against the Flyers on Thursday, they’re an undefeated 10-0 at home. They’re leading hockey as the best team in the league on both ends of the ice. The B’s have averaged 4 goals per game on an average of 33.8 shots per game and have only allowed an average of 2.12 goals per game on an average of 29.9 shots allowed. Linus Ullmark, who’s the top goaltender in the NHL to start the year, will get the night off with Jeremy Swayman confirmed in goal. Swayman is 2-1 in his three starts this year with a pretty lousy 3.45 GAA and .878 save percentage. The Blackhawks are playing like I expected them to, looking like a lottery team with just two wins in their last ten games to drop to 6-7-3 on the season after their hot 4-2 start. They’re coming off a 5-2 loss at home to the Blues on Wednesday night (winner for me). Chicago has only scored an average of 2.5 goals per game, generating an average of just 25.9 shots per game and they’ve allowed an average of 3.13 goals per game on an average of 34.7 shots per game. Last year the Bruins beat the Hawks in both games they played, winning 4-3 and then 2-1 in overtime. I’d expect the Bruins to win again here but the prices on this game at -445 and even the regulation line of -265 isn’t worth betting, so I’ll just stay off this game.

Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings (7:00)

Columbus is playing some of the worst defense hockey in the NHL this season but somehow they’ve won three of their last four games to come into tonight’s game with a 6-9-1 record. They’ve been good enough offensively this season, scoring an average of 3.06 goals per game on an average of 30.5 shots per game but they’ve given up the most goals in all of the NHL, an average of 4.31 goals per game on an average of 36.6 shots given up. The Red Wings ended their four game losing streak with a big 7-4 win in San Jose on Thursday night. They started their season off looking pretty good but have fallen back around league average, coming into tonight’s game with an 8-5-4 record. They’ve scored an average of 3.12 goals per game on an average of 28.5 shots per game and have allowed an average of 3.29 goals per game on an average of 32.1 shots allowed. Detroit is projected to start backup Alex Nedeljkovic in goal tonight who has been pretty horrible with a 4.33 GAA and .873 save percentage. In the three games between these teams a season ago, the Blue Jackets won two of three with both those games going over and the Red Wings 4-1 win staying under. I’d lean the Red Wings here but not enough to bet on it. I will take the over though for half a unit, expecting both teams to be able to generate goals.

Canadiens vs. Flyers (7:00)

Both of these teams come into tonight’s game on losing streaks. The Flyers after starting their first season under coach John Tortorella with a 4-1 record, they’ve since dropped down to being as shitty of a team as I expected them to be, losing their last five games straight to drop to 6-6-3 after a 4-1 loss in Boston on Thursday night. Their offense has been just as terrible as last year, scoring an average of just 2.47 goals per game on an average of 29.2 shots per game. Even with Carter Hart’s fantastic play in goal (2.55 GAA, .925 save percentage), they’ve still struggled on the back end, allowing an average of 3.06 goals per game on the 34.2 shots they’ve given up on average this season. The Habs lost their last two games, getting blow out 5-1 by the Devils at home on Tuesday and losing 6-4 in a close game against the Blue Jackets on Thursday. That puts Montreal at 8-8-1 on the year coming into tonight’s game, an improvement from last year but still not great. They’ve scored an average of 3 goals per game on an average of 30.8 shots on goal and have allowed an average of 3.47 goals per game on an average of 33.5 shots given up. Last year the Canadiens won two of their three games against Philly, needing overtime for their 3-2 and 4-3 wins but losing 6-3 to the Flyers. I’d slightly lean the Habs and the under in this game but not enough to bet on either, so I’ll just stay off this game completely.

Capitals vs. Avalanche (7:00)

The Stanley Cup Champions started their season a bit slow but they’ve since picked up the pace and are playing to the level that they did last year. After a 3-2 overtime win in Carolina on Thursday night, the Avalanche are now 9-5-1 on the season with five wins in their last six games. The Avs have been quite good offensively once again this year, scoring an average of 3.53 goals per game on an average of 32.5 shots per game. Defensively I thought they’d take a bit of a step back but they really haven’t, allowing an average of just 2.67 goals per game on an average of 34.3 shots per game. The Capitals are on a three game losing streak with just two wins in their last ten games to drop to 7-9-3 on the season after a 5-4 shootout loss in St. Louis on Thursday night. Washington is just trying to stay afloat with all the injuries that they have had this season with the most key injuries any team in the league has had to deal with this season. The Caps are scoring an average of 2.89 goals per game on an average of 29.8 shots per game and allowing an average of 3.21 goals per game on an average of 31.5 shots allowed. Last year even though the Avs ended the season obviously much better than the Capitals did, Washington won both games between these teams by scores of 6-3 and 3-2. I think the Avalanche stay hot here and get their revenge for those losses. I’ll take Colorado here for a unit to get a win on the road.

Jets vs. Penguins (7:00)

The Jets have played great to start this season under new head coach Rick Bowness. After their 3-2 win against the Ducks on Thursday, they are now 10-4-1 with an impressive 8-1-1 record in their last ten games. They’ve scored an average of 3.07 goals per game on an average of 30.5 shots per game. Defensively, they’ve been one of the best teams in the NHL, allowing a second fewest in the NHL average of just 2.33 goals per game on an average of 30.8 shots per game. Connor Hellebuyck, confirmed in goal for them again tonight has been fantastic with a 2.07 GAA and .935 save percentage in his twelve starts this year. The Penguins got a 6-4 win in a high scoring game on the road in Minnesota on Thursday, their third win in their last five games after going on a seven game losing streak. They’re now 7-7-3 on the season. Pittsburgh veteran lead offense is very good this year, scoring an average of 3.65 goals per game on an average of 33.6 shots per game but their defense has struggled, allowing an average of 3.59 goals per game on an average of 33.6 shots per game. Last year the Pens swept the two games they played against Winnipeg, winning 3-1 and then 3-2 in overtime. I’d lean the Jets win at home tonight and the under but neither enough to bet on, so I’ll just lay off this game. I do see some value to Winnipeg as a home dog, but again, not enough to bet it.

Stars vs. Islanders (8:00)

This is a very fun matchup between two games playing good hockey in what I expect to be a pretty evenly matched game. Dallas is 10-5-2 this year, coming off a 6-4 win in Florida on Thursday night. They’ve been good on both ends of the ice this year. The Stars have scored an average of 3.88 goals per game on an average of 30.3 shots per game and they’ve allowed an average of 2.77 goals per game on an average of 31.9 shots allowed. The Isles are coming off a 5-4 loss in Nashville on Thursday but have been good this season too, just their third loss in their last twelve games. They come into tonight’s game on the road with an 11-7 record this year. They’ve averaged 3.39 goals per game on an average of 32.4 shots per game and have allowed an average of just 2.67 goals per game on an average of 32.7 shots given up. Last season these teams split their two games with a 4-2 Islanders win and 3-2 Stars win. I’d slightly lean Dallas here at home and the over, especially with Varlamov likely to start for the Isles instead of Sorokin tonight but still think this is too close of a matchup to bet on so I will just stay off of it entirely.

Wild vs. Hurricanes (8:00)

The Wild have been one of the biggest disappointments of this season to me. They’re 7-8-2, coming into tonight’s game on a three game losing streak after a 6-4 home loss to the Penguins on Thursday. They’ve gotten worse on both ends of the ice compared to last year. Offensively they haven’t found a way to replace the scoring ability of Kevin Fiala who they lost in the offseason and have just scored an average of 2.71 goals per game on an average of 31.2 shots per game. Defensively they’ve allowed an average of 3.06 goals per game on an average of 30.9 shots per game. Fleury started the year pretty lousy for them in goal and is now on the IR, so its likely going to be Filip Gustavsson in goal tonight, who hasn’t been great with just an 1-4-1 record with a 3.2 GAA and .901 save percentage so far this season. The Hurricanes are what I think a top three team in the East along with the Bruins and Devils, coming into tonight’s game with a 10-5-2 record after a 3-2 overtime loss at home to the Avs on Thursday. They’ve been decent on both ends of the ice. They’re scoring an average of 2.94 goals per game while generating an average of 36.5 shots per game. Defensively, they’ve allowed an average of 2.71 goals per game on the low average of 25.7 shots they’ve allowed per game. Minnesota won both games between these teams last season, winning 3-2 and 3-1 in those games. I think the Canes get a win here on the road and will take them for half a unit. I’d lean the under but not enough to bet on it.

Predators vs. Lightning (8:00)

The Preds come into tonight’s game on a three game win streak for the first time this season after beating the Isles 5-4 on Thursday. They’re now 8-8-1 on the season after a poor stretch of getting just three wins in twelve games. Nashville has struggled a bit on both ends of the ice this year. They’re averaging 2.71 goals per game on an average of 29.2 shots per game and they’ve allowed an average of 3.24 goals per game on an average of 32.6 shots allowed. Juuse Saros hasn’t played to the level I expected he would with a 3.11 GAA and .905 save percentage in his 13 games this year. The Lightning are on a three game win streak as well after beating the Flames 4-1 on Thursday. The Bolts have been just as good offensively as they have been the last few years on their way to three straight Eastern Conference championship wins, averaging 3.41 goals per game on an average of 31.2 shots per game. Defensively though, they haven’t been as up to par as you’d expect. Andrei Vasilevskiy hasn’t been his usual Vezina candidate self with a 2.92 GAA and .906 save percentage in his twelve starts. With his struggles in goal, Tampa has allowed an average of 3.12 goals per game on an average of 31.2 shots allowed. Last year the Lightning swept the Preds in the two games they played, winning 3-2 and 6-2. I like Tampa to win here on the road and will take the Bolts for half a unit.

Blues vs. Ducks (8:00)

The Anaheim Ducks are the worst team in the NHL this season and through 17 games, they still haven’t won in regulation this year, coming into tonight’s game with a 5-11-1 record after a 3-2 loss in Winnipeg on Thursday night (huge clutch win for me on the Jets in regulation). They’ve been one of the worst teams in the league on both ends of the ice. The Ducks have only managed to score an average of 2.65 goals per game, fourth fewest in the NHL on an average of 30.2 shots per game. They haven’t been any better defensively either. Anaheim’s allowed the second most goals in the NHL, an average of 4.24 goals per game on an average of 38.4 shots allowed. The Blues have gotten it going now, after going on an eight game losing streak, they’re now on a five game win streak after a 5-4 shootout win at home against the Caps on Thursday. On the season St. Louis has struggled a bit on both ends of the ice. They’re scoring an average of just 2.69 goals while allowing an average of 3.5 goals per game, getting outshot by an average of 29.9-34 by their opponents. Last year despite the talent discrepancy between these teams with how good the Blues were and how shitty the Ducks were, Anaheim won two of the three games between them, winning 4-1, 3-2 in overtime and losing 6-3. I’m still not convinced that the Blues are a good team, but they are significantly better than the Ducks are. I’ll lay the juice here and take St. Louis at home for a unit.

Oilers vs. Golden Knights (10:00)

The Golden Knights bounced back from losing two games in a row with a dominant (as expected) 4-1 win at home against the Coyotes on Thursday. Vegas after missing the playoffs last year for the first time in franchise history are easily the best team in the West to start this season with a 14-4 record. They’ve been fantastic on both ends of the ice. Offensively, they’ve scored an average of 3.61 goals per game on an average of 33.4 shots per game. The Knights have been even more impressive defensively, allowing an average of just 2.39 goals per game on an average of 29.8 shots per game. Logan Thompson, projected to start in goal tonight has been very good with a 2.27 GAA and .925 save percentage with two shutouts and if he keeps this up could definitely be a rookie of the year candidate. The Oilers are 9-8 and have had their fair share of issues on both ends of the ice. They’re coming off a 3-1 loss at home to the Kings on Wednesday with just two wins inter last seven games. Edmonton’s scored an average of 3.53 goals per game on an average of 31.5 shots per game which isn’t bad but when you consider that Connor McDavid leads the NHL with 32 points (15 goals and 17 assists), there’s barely any scoring depth for this team past him and Draisaitl. The Oilers have been a disaster on the backend, allowing an average of 3.59 goals per game on an average of 34.8 shots allowed. Stuart Skinner who’s confirmed in goal hasn’t been horrible with a 2.47 GAA, .932 save percentage. Even with his decent play, McDavid and Draisaitl haven’t been able to outscore the defensive issues of this team. Last year Edmonton won three of their four games between these Pacific Division teams, beating the Knights 5-3, 3-2 and 4-0 and losing 4-0. I like Vegas to win here on the road and will take them for half a unit at the nice pick em price on the road.

Kraken vs. Kings (10:00)

The Kraken have much impoved from their lousy inaugural season a year ago, playing pretty well on both ends of the ice this year and could possible contend for a wild card spot this season. They’re coming off a 3-2 win against the Rangers to improve to 9-5-3 on the year. Seattle’s offense has scored an average of 3.24 goals per game on an average of 29.5 shots per game and their defense has allowed an average of 2.77 goals per game on an average of 27.4 shots given up. The Kings are 11-8-1 and on the second half of a back to back on the road after a 4-1 loss in Vancouver last night (double loser for me). LA’s improved offensively from last year, scoring an average of 3.2 goals per game on an average of 32.7 shots per game but they’ve taken a significant step back on the back end, allowing an average of 3.4 goals per game on an average of 29.4 shots given up. In the first game between these teams this year on October 13th to open the year in LA, the Kraken got a 4-1 win on the road. Last year the Kings went 3-1 against Seattle, beating them 3-1, 4-2 and 5-3 and losing 6-1. I’d slightly lean the Kraken and the over here but not enough to bet on either. I’ll lay off this game that could sneaky be fun to watch.

Sharks vs. Rangers (10:30)

The Rangers have been such a mid tier team this year coming into this year with an 8-6-4 record, which is a bit of a disappointment after hockey good they were last year. They’re coming off a 3-2 overtime loss in Seattle on Thursday and have only won two of their last seven games. New York has scored an average of 3 goals per game on an average of 34.2 shots per game and they’ve allowed an average of 2.78 goals per game on an average of 28.4 shots allowed, even with Vezina winner Igor Shesterkin (2.44 GAA, .914 save percentage) in goal for most of their games. Another team that’s been nothing special this year, the Sharks. San Jose lost 7-4 to the Red Wings at home on Thursday to end a three game win streak and drop to a pretty lousy 6-10-3 on the season. Erik Karlsson’s carrying this team’s offense, second in the NHL in scoring behind McDavid with 28 points (11 goals, 17 assists) but even with his superb play, the Sharks have only been able to score an average of 2.89 goals per game on an average of 30.2 shots per game. Defensively, San Jose hasn’t been great either, allowing an average of 3.47 goals per game on an average of 30.5 shots allowed. These cross conference teams already played their first game of the season on October 20th, with the Sharks getting a 3-0 win in overtime at MSG after the Rangers shut out the Sharks in both games these teams played last year, winning 1-0 and 3-0. I’d lean the Rangers and the over here but neither enough to bet on, so I’ll just skip this late night game.

Game Bets

1u Devils ML (-140)

.5u Panthers/Flames over 6 (-120)

.5u Sabres +1.5 (-112)

.5u Red Wings/Blue Jackets over 6.5 (-110)

1u Avalanche ML (-120)

.5u Hurricanes ML (-120)

.5u Lightning ML (-130)

1u Blues ML (-180)

.5u Golden Knights ML (-110)

Futures

1.5u Boston Bruins – Stanley Cup Champions (+1100)