This week the PGA Tour goes to one of the most fun events of the year, the Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale. “The Greatest Show on Grass” is now an elevated event with a huge purse and a loaded field! 

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Course Breakdown

7266 yd. Par 71, only 3 water hazards on the course in play on 6-7 holes, all 3 Par 5s are some of the easiest on tour and are all reachable in 2 by a majority of golfers and 17 is a driveable Par 4, off the tee golfers will see narrow landing areas with bunkers placed strategically and water in play on 7 holes, lot of roll out from tee shots, large misses could land in desert vegetation, rough around the fairways isn’t too penal and golfers should still be able to hit good approach shots, with the high elevation drives (especially) and approach shots will go farther, overseeded Bermuda blend grass, bunkers guarding most greens, greens are relatively flat, firm and fast in a large variety of sizes, some of the easiest greens on tour, this course has longest driving distance average on tour (averaging 295 yds vs. 282 yds tour average), scrambling and GIR % are higher than tour average where fairways gained is lower than tour average so missing the fairways doesn’t matter much

Tournament Notes

• The biggest party in golf and the crowd is always a big factor here, drawing a typical 500k fans for the week 
• My favorite non-major of the year
• Elevated field event with a huge $20M purse with $3.6M to the winner
• A shitty finish at the Farmers hasn’t really been too detrimental to the top of the leaderboard here historically the next week
• Behind Augusta and Waialae, this is the third most place on tour where course history matters
• 12 of the 13 T10 finishers last year gained strokes on the Par 5s
• 5 of the last 7 years this event has gone to a playoff and the other two were decided by just a stroke
• 11 of the last 12 winners here had a T5 in one of their previous 5 events
• Since 2000, only 8 54 hole leaders went on to win and only 2 since 2009 (Phil in 2013 and Rickie in 2019)
• 28 of the last 39 players in the last 6 years that finished T5 here played Torrey the week before, 11 of them had MC’d at Torrey, 7 had made cut but finished outside T30 at Torrey and in 2021 Carlos Ortiz finished 29th, Scheffler finished T20 and Theegala finished 25 in 2022, only Tony Finau and Bubba Watson in 2020 and Xander Schauffele in 2021 finished T10 or better at Torrey the week before in that span of time (Finau and Bubba T6 and Xander 2nd)
• Bad putters can win here

Key Stats

Approach, SG: OTT, Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds (7 of the Par 4s are 442-490 yds)

Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 (24.4%)

Field

133 golfers – completely loaded field with 22 of the top 25 players in the OWGR

Defending Champion: Scottie Scheffler (-16 in a playoff)

Runner Up Last Year: Patrick Cantlay (-16)

One and Done: Jon Rahm

One and Done Considerations: Rahm, Xander

Players

Xander Schauffele: 10000: +1600 – Love how he lines up for this week, 3,2,16,10,17 finishes the last five years here, 13,3,9,4,3,57,15,1,1,14,18,13,5 finishes in his last 13 events, 4th in Approach, 24th in SG: OTT, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring, 8th in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards, 2nd in Par 5 Scoring, 77th in Proximity: 150-175 yds, 26th in SG: ARG, 18th in Putting, 21st in Opportunities Gained, 8th in Birdie+ Gained

Sungjae Im: 9200: +2800 – 17,34,7 finishes his three times here (didn’t play this event last season), 4,18,MC,13,34,29,7,2,15,12,2,2 finishes in his last twelve events, 26th in Approach, 13th in SG: OTT, 33rd in Par 4 Scoring, 4th in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards, 2nd in Par 5 Scoring, 81st in Proximity: 150-175 yds, 50th in SG: ARG, 21st in Putting, 19th in Opportunities Gained, 15th in Birdie+ Gained

Tom Kim: 9100: +3050 – Has never played this event but that hasn’t been a problem for him before, 6,MC,5,11,25,1,54,13,1,7 finishes in his last ten events, 2nd in Approach, 49th in SG: OTT, 22nd in Par 4 Scoring, 133rd in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards, 16th in Par 5 Scoring, 28th in Proximity: 150-175 yds, 31st in SG: ARG, 64th in Putting, 4th in Opportunities Gained, 7th in Birdie+ Gained, andercursed

Tommy Fleetwood: 8100: +8000 – 59,38,5,1,4 finishes in his last five events (mainly all on the DP World Tour), 24th in Approach, 67th in SG: OTT, 5th in Par 4 Scoring, 6th in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards, 105th in Par 5 Scoring, 3rd in Proximity: 150-175 yds, 14th in SG: ARG, 21st in Putting, 50th in Opportunities Gained, 16th in Birdie+ Gained, has never played this event before but I like the value on him this week

Corey Conners: 7700: +5000 – 38,17,45 finishes here the last three years, 12,18,23,25,MC,26,5,28,21,28 finishes in his last ten events, 10th in Approach, 14th in SG: OTT, 28th in Par 4 Scoring, 44th in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards, 85th in Par 5 Scoring, 22nd in Proximity: 150-175 yds, 89th in SG: ARG, 118th in Putting, 7th in Opportunities Gained, 64th in Birdie+ Gained, this course neutralizes bad putting

Tom Hoge: 7500: +9000 – 14,MC,25,44,MC finishes here the last five years, 48,32,41,3,MC,MC,13,9,4,12,10 finishes in his last eleven events, 1st in Approach, 84th in SG: OTT, 7th in Par 4 Scoring, 32nd in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards, 80th in Par 5 Scoring, 20th in Proximity: 150-175 yds, 126th in SG: ARG, 36th in Putting, 1st in Opportunities Gained, 14th in Birdie+ Gained

Model

Approach (20%)

SG: OTT (15%)

Par 4 Scoring (10%)

Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards (5%)

Par 5 Scoring (10%)

Proximity: 150-175 yds (10%)

SG: ARG (10%)

Putting (5%)

Opportunities Gained (5%)

Birdie+ Gained (10%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

DraftKings/Betting Notes

• Soft major strength pricing with such a loaded field and ownership will be more spread out
• I really like this event to go to a playoff, so I’m taking the +350 prop on it. I don’t mind the event to be decided by a stroke but at +200, I don’t really see much value to that.
• I’m betting the hole in one on 16 prop entirely just for fun, no clue what the stats are behind that. It’s an easy, short Par 3 but the fans there play a big impact to make it the most fun hole in golf

Bets

Outrights

.64u Xander Schauffele (+1600)

.4u Sungjae Im (+2800)

.4u Tom Kim (+3050)

.2u Corey Conners (+5000)

.14u Tommy Fleetwood (+8000)

.12u Tom Hoge (+9000)

T6s

.2u Corey Conners (+1000)

.14u Tommy Fleetwood (+1600)

.12u Tom Hoge (+1800)

Props

.5u Event to be decided by a playoff (+350)

.2u Any golfer to hit a Hole in One on Hole 16 (+305)

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