Made a slight profit on last night’s small NHL slate, going 4-2 to win 0.76 units. I’ll take it. Today we have a fully loaded twelve game slate with most of the league in action. Let’s crush it!
Sabres vs. Lightning (12:30)
The Sabres are coming off two bad losses in a row. After losing 5-3 in a pathetic game against the Blue Jackets on Tuesday, we got blown out 7-1 in Boston on Thursday with five Bruins goals in the third period. Buffalo’s 31-25-4 on the season and in the Wild Card race in the East. Our offense has been fantastic this year but the defense and goaltending has been pretty bad. At the deadline they acquired Jordan Greenway from the Wild for two draft picks. The Lightning are pretty much locked into a first round playoff series with Toronto, comfortably in third place in the Atlantic with a 37-19-5 record. They’re on a three game losing streak, coming off a 5-4 overtime loss at home to the Penguins on Thursday (easy huge win on the over for me). They’ve only won two of their last eight games. Tampa’s offense is just as incredible as its been the last several seasons and although they’ve taken a bit of a step back from how good their goaltending and defense has been, the Bolts are still pretty solid on the back end. This will be the fourth and final game between these teams this season with the Lightning going 2-1 in those previous games, with the Lightning winning 5-3 at home on November 5th, then again 6-5 in overtime in Buffalo on November 28th before the Sabres won 6-5 on February 23rd in Tampa in a magicial game in overtime. I’d expect the Lightning to win here but I’m not betting against my team here. I love the over though and will take it for 2 units.
Islanders vs. Red Wings (12:30)
This is a pretty boring matchup. The Islanders, coming off a 2-1 shootout loss to the Wild on Tuesday (such an easy under), have gone 3-1-1 in their last five games, improving to 31-25-8 on the season and they’re currently in a Wild Card spot in the East. Their offense has been pathetic all season but their defense and Ilya Sorokin’s goaltending has been incredible. The Red Wings are on a four game losing streak, dropping to 28-24-9, coming off a 5-4 overtime loss at home to the Kraken on Thursday. They haven’t been great on either end of the ice. Detroit locked up captain Dylan Larkin with a new contract that will keep the hometown kid on the Red Wings for the next eight years, but they traded Tyler Bertuzzi to the Bruins in exchange for a first-round and fourth-round draft pick and sent Jakub Vrana to the Blues. These teams split their first two games, both winning in shutouts at home, a 3-0 Red Wings win on November 5th and a 2-0 win for the Islanders on January 27th. I’d lean the Isles win here at home on Long Island but don’t think they’re worth betting on -205. I do like the under though, which I’ll take for half a unit.
Bruins vs. Rangers (1:00)
This is an incredible matchup between two contenders in the East and it wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest to see these teams meet in the Eastern Conference Finals. The Bruins have had a historical start to their season, with the top seed in the league pretty much locked up with a 48-8-5 record. They’re on a nine game win streak, coming off a 7-1 blowout win at home against the Sabres on Thursday night and they have a 25-2-3 record at home this season. They acquired Tyler Bertuzzi from the Red Wings to the Bruins in exchange for a first-round and fourth-round draft pick. Boston’s defense and goaltending leads the NHL and their offense is fantastic as well. The Rangers have been quite good as well, comfortably in third place in the Metro Division with a 35-18-9 record. They’re coming off a 5-3 loss at home to the Senators on Thursday but made probably the biggest splash at the deadline, bringing Showtime to Broadway, reuniting Patrick Kane with Artemi Panarin. New York has been good on both ends of the ice this season. The Bruins won both previous games between these teams this season at MSG, winning 5-2 on November 3rd and then 3-1 on January 19th. I’d expect they complete the season sweep at home tonight and will take them for half a unit. I’d slightly lean the over but not enough to bet it.
Stars vs. Avalanche (3:30)
This is a great matchup between two of the top three teams in the Central Division. The Stars lead the division with a 33-16-3 record with a 3-0-1 record in their last four games, coming off an easy 5-2 win in Chicago on Tuesday night. Dallas has played really well on both ends of the ice this season. They added Maxi Domi, Chicago’s leading scorer at the deadline. The Avs had a six game win streak come to an end on Wednesday, losing 7-5 at home to the Devils. Colorado’s been very good recently, looking like the defending Cup champions, in third place in the Central with a 34-20-5 record. They acquired Lars Eller from Washington for a second round draft pick at the deadline. Although their offense has taken a huge step back from last year, their defense and goaltending has been elite this season. The Avalanche won both previous games between these teams this year, winning 3-2 in a shootout in Dallas on November 21st and 4-1 at home on November 26th. I’d expect they get another win on the road today and will take them for half a unit along with the under for half a unit.
Panthers vs. Penguins (6:00)
This should be a pretty fun game. The Penguins are surging up the standings, on a four game win streak after a 5-4 overtime win in Tampa on Thursday, improving to 31-21-9 on the season to currently hold the first Wild Card spot in the East. They’ve played well offensively this season but their defense and goaltending has been inconsistent at best. Pittsburgh made several moves at the deadline, bringing back Nick Bonino from the Sharks and acquiring Dmitry Kulikov from the Ducks. The Panthers took a huge step back from winning the President’s Trophy last year, with a 30-27-6 record, coming off a 2-1 loss at home to the Predators on Thursday. Florida’s offense has been fantastic once again this season, but their defense and goaltending has been a real struggle. The Pens won both previous games between these teams, winning 4-2 in Florida on December 15th, and 7-6 in overtime at home on January 24th. I’d lean the Penguins win agian on the road here but not enough to bet it. I do really like the over though, which I’ll take for a unit.
Sharks vs. Capitals (6:00)
Not a good cross conference matchup here. The Sharks are one of the worst teams in the NHL this season with an 18-32-12 record and they got worse at the deadline, trading their best player Timo Meier to the Devils, along with sending Nick Bonino back to the Penguins. They’re on a four game losing streak with just one win in their last eight games, comng off a 6-3 loss at home to the Blues on Thursday night. They’ve been awful on both ends of the ice. The Caps haven’t been great either, with a 30-27-6 record. Their offense has struggled but their defense and goaltending has been fine. They shipped Lars Eller to Colorado at the deadline for a second round draft pick. The Sharks picked up a 4-1 win in DC on February 12th in the first game between these teams this season. I’d expect the Caps to get a win on the road to tie up the season series this evening. The price on this game is way cheaper than I expected and I’ll take them for half a unit. I’d slightly lean the under but not enough to bet it.
Senators vs. Blue Jackets (7:00)
This isn’t a great game. I broke it down in depth in my article on StatSalt. As I said in that article, I expect an easy win for the Senators tonight, expecting them to capitalize easily on the horrible goaltending and defense for the Jackets and extend their win streak to five straight games. I’d slightly lean the over but not enough to bet it.
Canucks vs. Maple Leafs (7:00)
Huge Canadian mismatch in this game. The Leafs, coming off a 2-1 win in Calgary on Thursday are comfortably in second place in the Atlantic Division with a 38-16-8 record, preparing for a first round rematch against the Lightning. Kyle Dubas made a ton of moves prior to the deadline to bolster up the Leafs roster to give them a better chance to take down Tampa, fianlly get out of the first round and try to make a run. Toronto’s played great on both ends of the ice this season. The Canucks have been a mess, coming into tonight’s game with a 24-32-5 record after a 2-1 loss at home to the Wild on Thursday. Vancouver’s offense has been pretty decent but their defense and goaltending has been some of the worst in the NHL. At home on November 12th in the first meeting between these teams, the Leafs got a 3-2 win at home. I’d expect them to win again on the road tonight and I’ll take Toronto in regulation for a unit. I’d lean the over but not enough to bet it.
Jets vs. Oilers (7:00)
These teams just played last night in Edmonton for the first half of the home and home between these teams with the Oilers winning 6-3 at home, getting out to a 5-0 lead and cruising to the win. The Oilers and Jets hold the two Wild Card spots in the Western Conference, so every point is important for both of them. Edmonton’s won four of their last six games to improve to 34-21-8 on the year. Led by McDavid and Draisaitl, who have been absolutely incredible, the Oilers have the best offense in the NHL. They’ve struggled defensively though. The Jets are in their biggest slump of the season, coming into tonight’s game on a five game losing streak with only one win in their last eight games, dropping to 35-25-4 on the season. Winnipeg has been elite defensively but a bit inconsistent offensively. The Jets won the first game between these teams with a 2-1 win on the road on New Year’s Eve, so the season series is tied now after last night. I’d slightly lean the Oilers win again and the over, but not enough to bet it. I’ll just stay off this game.
Blackhawks vs. Predators (8:00)
These two teams made some of the biggest moves for the future at the deadline, trading a ton of assets. I broke this game down in depth, along with all those trades, in my article on StatSalt. After their deadline moves, I think the Blackhawks are the worst team in the NHL and will be betting against them constantly. I’ll take the Preds in regulation for a unit along with two units on the Blackhawks team total under 2.5 in regulation. I don’t expect this offense to be able to generate anything against Saros. I’d slightly lean the under on the game but not enough to bet it.
Flames vs. Wild (10:00)
This is a pretty boring matchup to me. The Wild are playing great hockey recently, improving to 35-21-6 on the season, in second place in the Central Division. Coming off a 2-1 win in Vancouver on Thursday, they’re on a three game win streak, with an impressive 7-0-1 record in their last eight games. At the deadline they sent Jordan Greenway to the Sabres for two draft picks but acquired John Klingberg from the Ducks. Minnesota has been an elite team defensively but they’ve struggled quite a bit offensively. The Flames are probably the biggest disappointment of this season, with just a 27-22-13 record. They’re on a four game losing streak after a 2-1 loss to the Leafs on Thursday night. Calgary hasn’t been anything more than mid tier on either end of the ice this season. In the first game between these teams this season, the Flames won 5-3 at home on December 7th. I’d expect the opposite result tonight. I’ll take the Wild to get a win on the road for half a unit at the nice underdog odds. I’ll also take the alternate under 6 in this game for a unit.
Kings vs. Blues (10:30)
Big mismatch on this Western Conference game. The Kings are in second place in the Pacific Division with a 35-20-8 record, with three wins in their last four games, coming off a 3-2 win at home against the Habs on Thursday night. They’ve been good offensively but have struggled at times defensively. At the deadline, LA sent Brendan Lemieux to Philly in exchange for Zach MacEwen. The Blues have been very disappointing this season with a 27-29-5 record and were already sellers early before the deadline. They did make one additional move on Friday after previously shipping away all their stars, acquiring Jakub Vrana from Detroit. St. Louis’s offense has been okay but their defense and goaltending has been terrible this season. The Kings won easily in the first game between these teams, winning 5-1 on the road on Halloween. I’d expect another LA win. The moneyline is a bit too expensive at -215, but I’ll take the Kings in regulation for a unit.
Game Bets
2u Lightning/Sabres over 6.5 (-136)
.5u Islanders/Red Wings under 6 (-110)
.5u Bruins ML (-180)
.5u Avalanche ML (-110)
.5u Avalanche/Stars under 6 (-121)
1u Panthers/Penguins over 6.5 (-140)
.5u Capitals ML (-150)
1u Senators in regulation (-155)
1u Senators TT over 3.5 (-148)
1u Maple Leafs in regulation (-130)
1u Predators in regulation (-125)
2u Blackhawks TT under 2.5 in regulation (-148)
.5u Wild ML (+135)
1u Flames/Wild under 6 (-143)
1u Kings in regulation (-130)
1u Kings/Blues over 6 (-137)
Futures
1u Boston Bruins – Stanley Cup Champions (+1000)
1.5u Boston Bruins – Stanley Cup Champions (+1100)
2u Vegas Golden Knights – Stanley Cup Champions (+1200)
1.5u Carolina Hurricanes – Stanley Cup Champions (+1300)
1u New York Rangers – Stanley Cup Champions (+1300)
1u New Jersey Devils – Stanley Cup Champions (+1600)
Record: 517-430-18 (-43.78 units)
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