Yesterday’s NHL slate was a disaster for me, erasing all of my wins for the last several days and nothing going right as I went 1-6 to lose 13.94 units, my worst night of the year. Tonight we have a huge ten game slate. NEED to bounce back!
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes (7:00)
This is a huge mismatch as I broke down in depth in my StatSalt article. As I said in that article, I expect an easy win for the Canes on the road and will lay the juice and take them in regulation for 1.5 units. I’d slightly lean the under but not enough to bet it.
Panthers vs. Golden Knights (7:00)
This should be a pretty fun cross-conference game tonight. The Golden Knights lead the Western Conference with a 38-19-6 record and come into tonight’s game on a three game win streak after a 4-3 win over the Habs at home on Sunday. They’ve played well on both ends of the ice. The Panthers took a huge fall from winning the President’s Trophy a season ago, coming into tonight’s game with just a 31-27-6 record after a big 4-1 win against the Penguins at home on Saturday. Their offense has been fantastic this season once again but they’ve really struggled defensively. Vegas won the first game between these teams 4-2 at home on January 12th. I’d expect the Knights to win again on the road tonight and will take them as an underdog for half a unit. I’d slightly lean the over but not enough to bet on it.
Devils vs. Maple Leafs (7:00)
We should get a very fun game tonight between two of the top four teams in the NHL this season. The Devils are in second place in the Metro Division, just within two points of the Hurricanes, with a 41-15-6 record. Coming off a 5-4 overtime win in Arizona on Sunday, they’ve picked up at least a point in each of their last five games, with a 17-3-3 record in their last 23 games. The Leafs are coming off a disappointing 4-1 loss in Vancouver on Saturday but are comfortably in second place in the Atlantic Division, pretty much locked into a first round rematch against the Lightning. Both of these teams have been spectacular on both ends of the ice this season. The two previous games between these teams were determined by just a goal with the Devils winning 3-2 in overtime in the first game in Toronto on November 17th and the Leafs answering back with a 2-1 win in New Jersey on November 23rd. I’d slightly lean the Devils win at home and the under in this game but not enough to bet either. I’ll lay off it entirely. This is easily the best game on tonight’s slate.
Penguins vs. Blue Jackets (7:00)
Huge Metro Division mismatch here. The Penguins are playing well recently but had their four game win streak come to an end on Saturday with a 4-1 loss on the road to the Panthers. Pittsburgh currently holds the second Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference with a 31-22-9 record. Their offense has been quite good this season but their defense and goaltending has been pretty inconsistent. The Blue Jackets have been one of the worst teams in the NHL this season with a 20-37-6 record, coming off a 5-3 los in Ottawa on Saturday night. They’ve been horrendous on both ends of the ice. The Pens beat them easily in both previous games between these teams, winning 6-3 in Columbus on October 22nd and then 4-1 at home on December 6th. I’d expect another easy win for them again tonight at home. The moneyline at -315 is way too expensive but I’ll go with a unit each in this game on the Penguins in regulation and the Pens team total over 3.5.
Lightning vs. Flyers (7:00)
The Lightning are in a huge slump right now, coming into tonight’s game on a five game losing streak after their worst loss of the season on Sunday, getting shut out 6-0 in Carolina. Luckily for the Bolts that doesn’t really matter much though as they’re still comfortably in third place in the Atlantic Division and are pretty much already locked into a first round matchup against the Leafs once again. Tampa’s offense has been fantastic this season and although their defense and goaltending has taken a significant step back from the last several years, they’re still pretty good. The Flyers have been terrible this season with a 24-28-11 record. They ended a four game losing streak on Sunday with a 3-1 win at home against the Red Wings, just their second win in their last ten games. Philly’s struggled on both ends of the ice this year, especially offensively. These teams split their two previous games this season with the road team winning each of those games, a 3-2 upset win for the Flyers in Tampa on October 18th and a 4-1 win for the Lightning to answer back in Philadelphia on December 1st. I like the Bolts to end their losing streak at home tonight to bounce back from their pathetic loss to the Canes on Sunday. The price on the moenyline here is way too expensive at -315, but I’ll take the Lightning in regulation for a unit here. I’d slightly lean the under but not enough to bet it.
Islanders vs. Sabres (7:30)
Last night the Sabres disappointingly lost 3-2 at home to the Oilers (coming a Buffalo goal short of pushing the over) and travel to Long Island tonight to face the Isles. I broke this game down in depth with my article on StatSalt. I expect this to be a very close game, and with the Sabres on the road in the second half of a back-to-back, I’d give a slight edge to the Isles winning here at home. I feel like this game is much closer to a coin flip than the odds show and the team that dictates the pace of play wins it, if this somehow becomes a back and forth high scoring game, I’m assuming the Sabres win. If its a grind, the Isles win. I’ll lay off this one entirely.
Wild vs. Flames (8:00)
The Wild have played really well recently, coming into tonight’s game on a four game win streak to improve to 36-21-6 on the season, currently comfortably in second place in the Central Division. Although their offense hasn’t been great this season, their defense and goaltending has been phenomenal. The Flames have had quite the disapppointing season with a 28-23-13 record and ended a five game losing streak last night in Dallas with Tyler Toffoli scoring the game winner with seven seconds left in regulation (loss for me). Calgary hasn’t been great on either end of the ice. These teams just played on Saturday night in Calgary, with the Wild getting a 3-0 shutout win to answer back from a 5-3 loss in Calgary in the first game between them on December 3rd. Especially with the Flames in the second half of a back to back on the road, I like the Wild to win here and will take them for a unit. Karill “the thrill” Kaprizov has 15 goals and 3 assists in the last twelve games where he was held pointless in his previous game, generating an average of 4.67 shots per game in those game. He didn’t have a point on Saturday in their win, so I’m hammering him to get on the board tonight. I’ll take Karill to score a goal tonight for 1.5 units, him to score over 1.5 goals for .4 units and him to have over 3.5 shots on goal for 1.5 units. I’d lean the under on the game but not enough to bet it.
Coyotes vs. Blues (9:00)
This matchup blows. The Coyotes are in full tank mode for the Connor Bedard and come into tonight’s game with a 21-32-10 record on a three game losing streak after a 5-4 overtime loss at home to the Devils on Sunday. Arizona has just one win in their last six games and they’ve been horrible on both ends of the ice this season. They surprisingly have a winning record at home though, with a 14-11-3 record at Mullett Arena. The Blues are atrocious as well, with a 27-30-5 record. Coming off a 4-2 loss in LA on Saturday, they’ve gotten just one win in their last eight games. They’ve struggled on both ends of the ice, especially defensively. This will be the third and final game between these teams this season. The first one was boring as fuck, with the Yotes winning 5-0 at home on January 26th. The Blues answered back in a very fun game though in the second matchup, winning 6-5 in overtime at home on February 11th. I’d lean Arizona wins as a dog at home tonight and would lean the over in this game, but not enough to bet either, and no chance I bother tuning into this game.
Avalanche vs. Sharks (9:00)
Huge mismatch in Denver tonight for this game. The Avs are on a three game losing streak after a 3-2 overtime loss to the Kraken on Sunday (double loser by a goal on each for me in that one), but currently hold the second Wild Card spot in the West with a 34-21-6 record on the season. Although the offense for Colorado has taken a big step back from when they lifted the Cup last year, they’ve been very good defensively. The Sharks have sucked with terrible 19-33-12 record and I only expect them to keep getting worse after trading Timo Meier at the deadline. They’re in the second half of a back to back after a 3-2 win in Winnipeg that completely FUCKED me last night, scoring the game tying goal with just eleven seconds left in regulation and then going on to win in OT. San Jose has been horrible on both ends of the ice. I like the Avs to win here but since the moneyline and regulation lines are too much to lay, I’ll go with just half a unit on the Avalanche puck line.
Kraken vs. Ducks (10:00)
The Ducks are one of the worst teams in the NHL this season with a 21-34-8 record and at the deadline they got even worse, sending John Klingberg to the Wild and Dmitry Kulikov to the Pens. Surprisingly though, Anaheim has picked up at least a point in each of their last five games, winning four of those five, coming off a 3-2 win at home against the Habs on Friday. The Ducks have been one of the worst teams in the league statistically on both ends of the ice this season. The Kraken are having a very good season, in third place in the Pacific Division with a 36-21-6 record and come into tonight’s game on a four game win streak after a 3-2 overtime win in Colorado on Sunday night. Their offense has been great this year but they’ve been inconsistent on the back end. Both previous games between these teams were 5-4 finals in Anaheim, with the Ducks winning at home in overtime on October 12th and the Kraken answering back with a 5-4 win on the road on November 27th. I like Seattle to win here again and will take them in regulation for half a unit. I also like the over here and will take the alternate over 6 for half a unit. I looked at the exact score prop of 5-4 Kraken win, but don’t think its worth wasting money on at +2800.
Game Bets
1.5u Hurricanes in regulation (-190)
.5u Golden Knights ML (+135)
1u Penguins in regulation (-186)
1u Penguins TT over 3.5 (-182)
1u Lightning in regulation (-120, boosted on FanDuel)
1u Wild ML (-140)
1.5u Karill Kaprizov over .5 goals (-107)
.4u Karill Kaprizov over 1.5 goals (+450)
1.5u Karill Kaprizov over 3.5 shots (-125)
.5u Avalanche -1.5 (-143)
.5u Kraken in regulation (-182)
.5u Kraken/Ducks over 6 (-134)
Futures
1u Boston Bruins – Stanley Cup Champions (+1000)
1.5u Boston Bruins – Stanley Cup Champions (+1100)
2u Vegas Golden Knights – Stanley Cup Champions (+1200)
1.5u Carolina Hurricanes – Stanley Cup Champions (+1300)
1u New York Rangers – Stanley Cup Champions (+1300)
1u New Jersey Devils – Stanley Cup Champions (+1600)
Record: 532-443-20 (-49.74 units)
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