Losing night for me yesterday, going 2-3-1 to lose 2.42 units. Third shitty losing night in a row. Tonight we have a giant eleven game slate. Great scheduling by the NHL with three games last night, two games tomorrow and another huge slate Saturday. Anyway, let’s get some wins tonight.
I have to tone down the sizing of my bets in this slump, so I’ll be sticking to mostly half unit bets again for a bit unless I really love something.
Lightning vs. Golden Knights (7:00)
I broke this game down in depth with my article on StatSalt. Interesting matchup with the better offense for Tampa and the better defense for Vegas. I’d slightly lean Tampa wins at home and the over, but not enough to bet on either. I’ll stay off this game entirely.
Sabres vs. Stars (7:00)
The Sabres come into tonight’s game still on the outside, looking into a Wild Card spot in the East. They’re 32-27-4 after back to back 3-2 losses, at home against the Oilers on Monday and then on the road on Long Island against the Isles on Tuesday. Both kinda disappointing losses with the way we played. With those losses, we now have just one win in our last five games. Need to get out of the slump. Buffalo’s young offense has been one of the best in the NHL this season but the defense and the goaltending has severely struggled. They’ll be tested tonight against a really good opponent in the Stars coming to town. Dallas leads the Central Division and are just a point behind the Golden Knights for first place in the West with a 34-17-13 record. On Monday they had a three game win streak come to an end, losing 5-4 at home to the Flames, giving up the game winner with just seven seconds left in regulation. They’ve gone 4-1-1 in their last six games. The Stars have statistically played really well on both ends of the ice. In the first game in Dallas between these teams this season on January 23rd, the Sabres played incredibly, winning 3-2 in overtime. I’d slightly lean the Stars win this game, but not enough to bet it. I do like the over though, and will take the alternate over 6 in this game for half a unit.
Hurricanes vs. Flyers (7:00)
This game is a gigantic mismatch in the Metro Division. The Canes are the best team in the Division with a 42-12-8 record with a 27-7-2 record at home. They are coming into tonight’s game on a three game win streak off a 4-3 shootout win in Montreal on Tuesday, which screwed me since I had them in regulation only. Carolina’s been incredible on both ends of the ice, especially defensively. The Flyers are horrible this season with just a 24-29-11 record. They’re coming off a 5-2 loss in Tampa on Tuesday and have only one win in their last six games. Philly’s been pretty bad on both ends of the ice, especially offensively. Although they lost both previous games between these teams, they kept those games tight, both determined by just a goal, with Carolina winning 4-3 in overtime on October 29th in Philly and then 6-5 at home on December 23rd. The prices on this game on the moneyline and the regulation lines are way too expensive to bet on either. I initially considered betting the Flyers team total under, but I feel like thats a bad play with how well their offense has done against the Hurricanes this year. I expect an easy Canes win, but I’ll just stay off this game.
Canadiens vs. Rangers (7:00)
Another big mismatch here. The Habs, who are coming off a 4-3 shootout loss to the Hurricanes at home on Tuesday are on a four game losing streak, losing by a goal in each of those games. They’re last in the Atlantic Division with a 26-33-5 record and Montreal’s been terrible offensively on both ends of the ice. The Rangers are in third place in the Metro Division with a 35-19-9 record and are definetely a contender this season, especially after adding Kane and Tarasenko at the deadline. They’ve been great on both ends of the ice but are coming off two losses in a row after a 4-2 loss in Boston on Saturday. These teams split their two games this season with the road team winning each of those games, a 4-1 win for the Rags in Montreal on January 5th and a 2-1 win for the Habs at MSG on January 15th. I expect the well rested Rangers to keep that trend going on the road tonight and will take them in regulation for half a unit. I’d slightly lean the under but not enough to bet it.
Penguins vs. Islanders (7:00)
This should be a very fun game between these two Metro Division teams that currently hold the two Wild Card spots in the Eastern Conference, seperated by just a point in the standings. This will be the fourth and final matchup of the year between these teams as the Pens look to avoid the season sweep. The Isles won 5-1 at home on December 27th, 5-4 on February 17th at home, and then 4-2 on the road on February 20th. Pittsburgh’s played quite well recently with five wins in their last six games to improve to 32-22-9 on the season, coming off a 5-4 ovvertime win agianst the Blue Jackets on Tuesday where they . The Penguins have been quite good offensively this season, but they’ve been pretty inconsistent on the back end. The Islanders play the complete opposite style of hockey. They’ve been fantastic defensively with one of the best goaltenders in the NHL in Ilya Sorokin. After a 3-2 win at home against the Sabres on Tuesday, with controversy around the game winning goal, they’re 33-25-8 on the season with a 5-1-1 record in their last seven games. I like the Penguins to avoid getting swept by the Isles this season and get the win on home ice tonight. I’ll take them for half a unit. I’d slightly lean the under but I’m not betting it.
Capitals vs. Devils (7:00)
The Devils have been incredible this season, comfortably in second place in the Metro Division with a 41-16-6 record and they’ve been very good on the road, where they have a 23-4-4 record. New Jersey is coming off a 4-3 loss at home to the Leafs on Tuesday but have been great recently with a 17-4-3 record in their last 24 games. They’ve played excellent hockey on both ends of the ice. The Capitals are having a disappointing season with just a 31-28-6 record. Although they’re coming off a 4-2 loss in LA on Monday, they’ve won three of their last five games. Washington’s been decent defensively but they’ve struggled a bit to score this year. These teams split their two previous games this season in Jersey, with the Caps winning 6-3 on October 24th and the Devils answering back with a 5-1 win at home on November 26th. I give a pretty significant edge here to the Devils and will take them for a unit.
Bruins vs. Oilers (7:30)
This is an excellent matchup between the top two offensive teams in the NHL. I broke it down in depth with my article on StatSalt. As I said in that article, I give a significant edge defensively to the Bruins here and expect them to get the win. I considered laying the heavier juice on the moneyline, but I’ll just the Boston in regulation for half a unit. I also like the over obviously with these teams scoring the most goals in hockey and will take the over for half a unit as well.
Blues vs. Sharks (8:00)
This matchup blows as both of these teams have really struggled this season, on both ends of the ice. This will be the last game between these teams this season, with the Blues winning both of those previous games, a 5-3 win at home on November 10th and then a 6-3 win on the road in San Jose last Thursday. The Blues are 27-31-5 and after a 6-2 blowout loss in Arizona to the lowly Coyotes, they’ve only gotten one win in their last nine games, which ironically just came against the Sharks a week ago. The Sharks are coming off a 6-0 blowout loss in Colorado on Tuesday and have only one win in their last seven games, with a 19-34-12 record on the season. I’d lean the Blues win at home tonight but no shot I bet them. I do like the over though and will take the alternate over 6 in this game for half a unit.
Coyotes vs. Predators (9:00)
This matchup sucks but it could definetely lead to a fun game between these Central Division teams that are both out of the playoff picture. The Coyotes are tanking for Bedard with a 22-32-10 record on the season but ended a three game losing streak on Tuesday with a 6-2 win on Tuesday night at home against the Blues. Statistically the Yotes have been terrible on both ends of the ice. The Predators were pretty big sellers at the deadline and have had a bit of disappointing season with a 31-23-7 record. They’ve played well recently though. Coming off a 4-3 shootout loss in Vancouver on Monday night, they’ve gone 5-1-1 in their last seven games. Nashville’s been quite good defensively with Juuse Saros in goal but they’ve struggled quite a bit offensively this season. This will be the fourth and final game of the year betwen these teams with the Preds going 2-1 in those games, getting a 4-3 shootout win at home on November 21st, the Coyotes winning 4-2 in Smashville on February 13th, and the Preds answering back with a 6-2 win in Arizona on Febraruy 26th. I’d slightly lean the Predators get a win tonight on the road at Mullett Arena and would slightly lean the over, but not enough to bet on either. I’ll lay off this game entirely.
Avalanche vs. Kings (9:00)
We should get an awesome Western Conference matchup here as the Avs host the Kings for the second time this season. The first game was very close with the Kings getting a 5-4 shootout win in Colorado on December 29th. The Kings have been great recently, coming into tonight’s game on a four game win streak after a 4-2 win at home against the Caps on Monday night. They’re in second place in the Pacific Division with a 37-20-8 record, and they’re tied in points for first in the West with Vegas and could take that first position with a win tonight and a Golden Knights loss. The Avs look like the defending Cup champs should and are currently in third place in the Central Division with a 35-21-6 record on the season, coming off a big 6-0 win against the Sharks at home that ended a three game losing streak for them. Colorado’s definetely taken a large step back offensively from last year, but they’re still a fantastic defensive team, and can dictate their pace of play. I’d slightly lean the Avs win at home and the over in this game, but not enough to bet on either, so I’ll skip betting this game entirely but will more than likely tune in to watch it.
Kraken vs. Senators (10:00)
To close out the night we have what should be a very fun cross-conference matchup. The Kraken are having a great year, currently in third place in the Pacific Division with a 37-21-6 record. They’re coming into tonight’s game on a nice five game win streak after a 5-2 win at home against the Ducks on Tuesday. Seattle’s been very good offensively this season but a bit inconsistent defensively. The Senators have been very good recently, with a 12-4-1 record in their last seven games but this has been a disappointing season for them, as they’re only 32-27-4 on the year. On Monday night they gave me a huge triple loser as Ottawa had their five game losing streak come to an end with a 5-0 loss in Chicago. The Sens have been inconsistent on both ends of the ice. I’d lean the Kraken win here at home but don’t give them enough of an edge to bet on. I love the over though and will take the alternate over 6 in this game for a unit.
Game Bets
.5u Stars/Sabres over 6 (-136)
.5u Rangers in regulation (-165)
.5u Penguins ML (-140)
1u Devils ML (-145)
.5u Bruins in regulation (-112)
.5u Bruins/Oilers over 6.5 (-120)
.5u Blues/Sharks over 6 (-141)
1u Kraken/Senators over 6 (-137)
Futures
1u Boston Bruins – Stanley Cup Champions (+1000)
1.5u Boston Bruins – Stanley Cup Champions (+1100)
2u Vegas Golden Knights – Stanley Cup Champions (+1200)
1.5u Carolina Hurricanes – Stanley Cup Champions (+1300)
1u New York Rangers – Stanley Cup Champions (+1300)
1u New Jersey Devils – Stanley Cup Champions (+1600)
Record: 540-452-201 (-55.78 units)
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