I had a nice profitable day yesterday on the NHL for me as I went 7-3 to win 1.94 units on a small five game slate I liked a lot. Tonight we have a huge 13 game slate, let’s crush it and get my third winning day in the last four.
Canadiens vs. Lightning (7:00)
This is a huge mismatch in the Atlantic Division. I broke this game down in depth in my article on StatSalt. As I said in that article, I expect the Bolts to complete the season sweep of the Habs this season. I’m gonna double up on this game and take the Lightning in regulation and the Lightning team over 3.5 for a unit each, both at pretty good prices. I’d lean the over but not enough to bet it.
Sabres vs. Predators (7:00)
Both of these cross conference teams come into tonight’s game on three game losing streaks. My Sabres playoff hopes are dwindling and dwindling more and more by the day as we’re in a miserable slump right now with just one win in our last eight games to drop to 33-30-6 on the season. Buffalo’s young offense has been incredible this season but the defense and goaltending has been horrendous. Can only hope as a Sabres fan that Devon Levi, the hopeful goalie of the future that just signed his first NHL contract a few days ago could be our next Dominik Hasek and Ryan Miller. The Predators are coming off a 7-0 blowout loss in MSG on Sunday afternoon, an easy over for me that saw the Preds give up six goals in the first 13:36 of the game, dropping to a three game losing streak. They haven’t had a great season and were sellers at the deadline but come into tonight’s game with a 34-26-8 record. Playing in kind of the opposite fashion of the Sabres, Nashville has been good defensively with Juuse Saros in goal but their offense has really struggled this season. In the first game between these teams in Nashville on January 14th, Buffalo picked up a solid 5-3 win on the road. I’d lean we win again at home tonight, but I’m not even going to consider betting on it. I like the over though, which I’ll take for half a unit.
Bruins vs. Senators (7:00)
The Bruins are easily the best team in the NHL this season, rightfully the far and away Stanley Cup favorite as this has been arguably the best season in NHL history. The B’s already set a record for the fastest team to 50 wins in NHL history and they’re on pace to have the greatest regular season ever, coming into tonight’s game with a 53-11-5 record with an insane 27-3-3 record at home. They return home tonight on a three game win streak with two shutouts in those last three games, coming off a 7-0 blowout win in Buffalo on Sunday that made me sick to watch as a Sabres fan. Their offense is the second best in the NHL, only behind McDavid and the Oilers, while their defense and goaltending is easily the best in the league. Last night the Senators ended a five game losing streak with a 2-1 win in Pittsburgh (double loser for me) to improve to 34-31-5 on the season. Ottawa’s been below league average in the way they’ve played on both ends of the ice this year. Despite Boston being the much better team in this matchup, the Senators are 2-1 against them this season, having won 7-5 at home on October 18th and 3-2 in a shootout at home on December 27th, before the B’s won 3-1 at home on February 20th. Especially with the Sens in the second half of a back to back, I expect the Bruins to win this game easily at home tonight. I think the -275 moneyline on the Bruins is too expensive here but I’ll take them in regulation for a unit and the Bruins team total over 3.5 for half a unit.
Rangers vs. Hurricanes (7:00)
This should be a great game tonight between two of the playoff teams in the Metro Division, who have both played great hockey this season. The Rangers come into tonight’s game in third place in the division with a 41-19-10 record and they’re on a four game win streak, picking up at least a point in each of their last seven games, with a 6-0-1 record in that span. The Rags scored six goals in the first 13:36 of their game at home against the Preds on their way to a 7-0 shutout win Sunday. The Hurricanes lead the Division with a 45-15-8 record, coming off a 5-4 win in Philly on Saturday. Both of these teams have played great hockey on both ends of the ice, with a bit of an edge offensively to New York and a bit of a defensive edge to Carolina. The Rangers won both previous games between these teams this season, winning 5-3 at home on January 3rd and 6-2 on the road in Carolina on February 11th. I think the Canes are the slightly better team in general here this season, but this game is a coin flip to me and I don’t see any edge in betting it. I’d slightly lean the under as well, but not enough to bet that either, so I’ll stay off this game entirely. Should be awesome to watch.
Devils vs. Wild (7:00)
What a fun cross conference matchup this game give us. Both of these teams are playing great hockey and their first game was very tight, with the Wild winning 3-2 in a shootout on February 11th. The Devils ended a three game losing streak on Sunday, beating the Lightning 5-2 in Tampa to improve to 45-18-7 on the season, comfortably in second place in the Metro Division. They’re having an awesome year, playing great hockey on both ends of the ice. The Wild have been on fire recently. Coming off a 5-3 win at home against the Caps on Sunday afternoon, they’ve gone 12-1-3 in their last 16 games to improve to 40-22-8 on the season, in third place (tied in points with Colorado) in the Central, just a point back from Dallas. They’ve played incredible defensively all season and recently, even with their best offensive player, Karill the thrill Kaprizov in the lineup, their offense has come alive big time lately. I’d give a bit of an edge to Jersey at home here but in no way should the line on this game be -180. I’d also slightly lean the over but not enough to bet it. This might be my favorite game on the slate tonight.
Flyers vs. Panthers (7:00)
I got a nice quadruple (yes, 4 wins) on the Panthers last night as they got a 5-2 win in Detroit. Florida’s been the hottest team in hockey lately, rolling into tonight’s game on a three game win streak, picking up at least a point in their last seven straight. With a 13-5-1 record in their last 19 games, they’ve played themselves into the second Wild Card spot in the East with a 36-27-7 record. Their offense has been fantastic this season but their defense and goaltending has been pretty shaky. The Flyers are having a horrible year, coming into tonight’s game with 25-32-12 with just three wins in their last 16 games. After beating the Sabres 5-2 at home on Friday night, the Flyers gave the Canes a solid game on Saturday, ultimately losing 5-4 in overtime. Philly’s offense has been completely pathetic and their defense is only a bit better, also struggling quite a bit this year. These teams split their two previous games this season, both 4-3 wins for the home team back in October. Even in the second half of a back to back, I’m going right back to the Panthers and the over in this spot. I’ll take them for half a unit, their team total over 3.5 for half a unit and the over for a unit.
Capitals vs. Blue Jackets (7:00)
This isn’t a great game in the Metro Division between two pretty disappointing teams this season, and the price make it even worse. The Capitals have had a lousy year, coming into tonight’s game with a 33-31-7 record, well outside of the playoff picture. Coming off a 5-3 loss in Minnesota on Sunday, they only have one win in their last four games. Washington’s been pretty good defensively this season but their offense has struggled. The Blue Jackets are one of the worst teams in the NHL with just a 21-41-7 record. I got a very easy win in their game on Sunday as Vegas blew them out 7-2. The Jackets are now on a three game losing streak with just one win in their last eight games. Columbus has statistically been one of the worst teams in the league on both ends of the ice. The Caps won all three games between these teams this season, all in different fashion. They won in a 6-2 blowout on the road on January 5th, in a 1-0 shutout at home on January 8th and then 4-3 in overtime on the road on January 31st. I’d expect them to complete the season sweep tonight at home. The -235 price on the moneyline is too expensive, but I’ll take the Caps in regulation for half a unit. I’d slightly lean the under but not enough to bet it.
Islanders vs. Maple Leafs (7:30)
Interesting matchup on Long Island tonight but this one just isn’t that exciting to me. The Leafs are comfortably in second place in the Atlantic Division with a 42-18-9 record on the season, preparing for a first round rematch against the Lightning…that I actually think they finally get out of this year. Coming off a 5-4 shootout win in Ottawa on Saturday (winner for me), they’ve played solid hockey lately. Toronto’s been great on both ends of the ice. The Isles are in the first Wild Card spot in the East with a 36-27-9 record and come home tonight from their California road trip after a 4-1 win in San Jose on Saturday. They have been good defensively this season but pretty lousy offensively for most of the year. These teams split their two prior games this season with the Isles winning 3-2 in overtime in Toronto on November 21st and then the Leafs answering back with a 5-2 win at home on January 23rd. I like the Leafs to win again on the road tonight and will take them for half a unit. They’re the much more well rounded team this season. I’d slightly lean the under but not enough to bet it.
Blues vs. Red Wings (8:00)
What a shitty game this is. Might be fun though. The Blues are having a pretty lousy season with a 31-33-5 record and they were big sellers at the deadline. They screwed me big time though on Sunday night, beating the Jets with a 3-0 shutout win at home, their second win in a row and fourth in their last six games. St. Louis hasn’t been terrible offensively but they’ve been one of the worst defensive teams in the NHL. The Red Wings are in a big slump right now and coming off a 5-2 loss last night at home to the Panthers (big winner for me, four different ways), they’re on a three game losing streak with just two wins in their last twelve games to drop to 30-30-9 on the season. Detroit has struggled on both ends of the ice. I’d lean the Blues win tonight at home, especially with the Red Wings in the second half of a back to back, but not enough to bet it. I do like the over though, which I’ll take a shot on for half a unit.
Jets vs. Coyotes (8:00)
The Jets really let me down on Sunday night, getting shut out in a 3-0 loss in St. Louis to prevent me from having a huge day with a double loser on them. They’ve struggled a bit recently with just four wins in their last 14 games, but they’re still comfortably in a Wild Card spot with a 39-29-3 record. Winnipeg’s played really well defensively this season with one of the best goalies in the league in Connor Hellebuyck and they’re around league average offensively. The Coyotes are playing themselves out of the Bedard sweepstakes, on an eight game point streak with a 6-1 record in their last seven games, coming into tonight’s game on a four game win streak after a 4-2 win against the Blackhawks on Saturday. Statistically they’ve been terrible on both ends of the ice. The Jets won both previous games between these teams by a goal this season with a 3-2 overtime win in Arizona on October 28th and a 2-1 win at home on January 15th. I’d expect Winnipeg wins here at home tonight to bounce back from Sunday’s loss but with the way these teams have played, there’s zero value in betting them at -286. Way too expensive. I’d slightly lean the under but not enough to bet that either, so I’ll just stay off this game.
Stars vs. Kraken (8:30)
This should be a fun game. The Stars lead the Central Division with a 38-19-13 record, coming off a 6-5 overtime win in Calgary on Saturday in a very entertaining game. They’ve played really well recently with a 8-3-1 record in their last twelve games. Dallas has played well on both ends of the ice this season. The Kraken are having a good season as well, in the first Wild Card spot in the West with a 38-24-7 record. They’re struggling a bit lately though with just one win in their last five games. Seattle’s been very good offensively this season but they’ve been inconsistent defensively. Dallas won both previous games between these teams this season, winning 4-3 in overtime in Seattle on March 11th and then winning again, 5-2 on the road on March 13th. Although I think this is a pretty close game, Dallas should get the win here at home and I’ll take them for half a unit. I like the over better though, and I’ll take the alternate over 6 for a unit.
Ducks vs. Flames (10:00)
This isn’t a great matchup in the Pacific Division, as I broke down in depth in my article on StatSalt. Like I said in that article, I expect the Flames to bounce back from their embarassing 8-2 blowout loss in LA last night and get a win tonight on the road in Anaheim. The moneyline I don’t think is worth betting around -200, but not enough to bet it at that price. I will take them in regulation though for half a unit. I’d slightly lean the over, but not enough close enough to bet on.
Canucks vs. Golden Knights (10:00)
Both of these teams are playing well recently but there’s still a pretty big talent discrepancy in this matchup. The Golden Knights have been rolling this season, leading the Western Conference with a 43-21-6 record. Coming off a 7-2 blowout win at home on Sunday that was such an easy win for me, they’ve won five of their last six games with a 14-3-2 record in their last nine games. Vegas has played well this season on both ends of the ice. Although they’ve had a very disappointing season with a 31-33-5 record, the Canucks played easily their best hockey of the year lately with just one loss in their last eight games. Vancouver’s been good offensively this season but they’ve struggled on the back end all year. These teams split their two previous games this season with a 5-4 Knights win in Vancouver on November 21st and a 5-1 Canucks win in Vegas on November 26th. Vegas is the better team here and I think they win on the road but I still expect this game stays close. I’ll take the Golden Knights for half a unit. I’d lean the over but not enough to bet it.
Game Bets
1u Lightning in regulation (-159)
1u Lightning TT over 3.5 (-157)
.5u Sabres/Predators over 6.5 (-120)
1u Bruins in regulation (-182)
.5u Bruins TT over 3.5 (-175)
.5u Panthers ML (-170)
.5u Panthers TT over 3.5 (-125)
1u Panthers/Flyers over 6.5 (-125)
.5u Capitals in regulation (-143)
.5u Maple Leafs ML (-120)
.5u Blues/Red Wings over 6.5 (-115)
.5u Stars ML (-165)
1u Stars/Kraken over 6 (-136)
.5u Flames in regulation (-117)
.5u Golden Knights ML (-135)
Futures
1u Boston Bruins – Stanley Cup Champions (+1000)
1.5u Boston Bruins – Stanley Cup Champions (+1100)
2u Vegas Golden Knights – Stanley Cup Champions (+1200)
1.5u Carolina Hurricanes – Stanley Cup Champions (+1300)
1u New York Rangers – Stanley Cup Champions (+1300)
1u New Jersey Devils – Stanley Cup Champions (+1600)
Record: 595-499-23 (-63.55 units)
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