After the Match Play, which was a week off for me, the PGA goes to TPC San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open for the last event before The Masters next week!
Course Breakdown
7435 yard, Par 72, Greg Norman design (with Sergio Garcia), overseeded Bermuda grass throughout, plays very long, the Par 5s are long, all of them around 600 yds with only one reachable in 2 by most golfers (Par 5s here play the hardest of any course on tour), 3 of the Par 3s are between 150-175 yds, 58 bunkers and water hazards on 3 holes, average driving distance here is longer than tour average by a few yards since guys don’t care to hit the fairways, very hard to hit narrow tree lined fairways (~56% driving accuracy vs. ~62% tour average) with large bunkers in play, shorter rough isn’t too penal to get out of, native areas will be very hard to get out of if you miss the fairways wildly, very hard to hit greens (~58% GIR vs. tour average ~66%), second-lowest GIR % on tour behind just Riviera, average speed greens that are multitiered with lots of undulation, closely mowed edges of greens (like Augusta), it can get very windy here with the prevailing winds more to the players backs on longer holes and in their face on the shorter ones
Tournament Notes
- There isn’t as much of a difference between SG: OTT and Approach as there usually is, so you need to be good off the tee here and SG: OTT becomes more influential the higher the finish
- Last chance to get into The Masters by winning this tournament, this is only the third year that it’s been the tournament the week before The Masters
- Historically one of the 10 hardest courses on tour but has played a bit easier the past few years
- Besides Landry in 2018 who didn’t play the year before he won, 5 of the last 7 winners have a T30 the year before here (Spieth in 2021 was technically 2 years since the 2020 tournament was cancelled because of covid, but still fits this trend since he came T30 in 2019 here)
- 5 of the last 8 winners here were first time winners on tour
- 8 of the last 12 winners here (since they started playing this event at this course in 2010) were the 54 hole leaders
- Prior to JJ Spaun last year (who was 4th T2G and gained strokes in every facet of the game), the last 4 winners here were 4th, 1st, 1st and 2nd in Approach for the week
Key Stats
Approach, SG: OTT, Driving Distance
Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 yds (20.4%), 200+ yds (18.6%), 175-200 yds (18.3%)
Field
144 golfers – pretty lousy field strength
Defending Champion: JJ Spaun (-13)
Runner Up Last Year: Matt Kuchar, Matt Jones (-11)
One and Done: Corey Conners
One and Done Considerations: Corey Conners, Ricky Fowler
Players
Rickie Fowler: 10200: +2000 – It’s had to be years since I’ve bet him but he needs to win here to get into the Masters and he’s playing his best golf in years, hasn’t missed a cut since October with 13,31,20,10,11,54,34,2,MC,6 finishes in his last ten events, MC,17,17 finishes here, 20th in Approach, 41st in SG: OTT, 32nd in Driving Distance, 43rd in Par 5 scoring, 12th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 123rd in Proximity 200+ yards, 59th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 71st in SG: ARG, 33rd in Putting, 6th in Opportunities Gained, 1st in Birdie+ Gained, 10th in Bogie Avoidance
Corey Conners: 10100: +2400 – Former winner here in 2019 with 35,14,1,26 finishes here, MC,21,61,50,12,18,23,25,MC,26,5 finishes in his last eleven events, 7th in Approach, 6th in SG: OTT, 74th in Driving Distance, 43rd in Par 5 scoring, 19th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 37th in Proximity 200+ yards, 56th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 96th in SG: ARG, 122nd in Putting, 4th in Opportunities Gained, 28th in Birdie+ Gained, 53rd in Bogie Avoidance
Si Woo Kim: 9700: +2200 – He’s been much more consistent this season, 13,23,4,45,22,MC finishes here, 27,39,MC,23,25,22,1,35,52,45,8 finishes in his last eleven events, 5th in Approach, 25th in SG: OTT, 100th in Driving Distance, 81st in Par 5 scoring, 3rd in Proximity 150-175 yards, 54th in Proximity 200+ yards, 2nd in Proximity 175-200 yards, 42nd in SG: ARG, 67th in Putting, 1st in Opportunities Gained, 39th in Birdie+ Gained, 5th in Bogie Avoidance
Davis Riley: 9500: +2900 – Finished 63 here last year in his only time here, after three MCs, 29,8,MC,19 finishes in his last four events, 10th in Approach, 59th in SG: OTT, 43rd in Driving Distance, 8th in Par 5 scoring, 36th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 7th in Proximity 200+ yards, 48th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 111th in SG: ARG, 61st in Putting, 2nd in Opportunities Gained, 24th in Birdie+ Gained, 65th in Bogie Avoidance
Cameron Davis: 8300: +5500 – Gained strokes on T2G, OTT, ARG, Putting at THE PLAYERS, finished 6th at THE PLAYERS after five straight MCs, 69,MC finishes his two times here, 46th in Approach, 20th in SG: OTT, 14th in Driving Distance, 6th in Par 5 scoring, 16th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 17th in Proximity 200+ yards, 32nd in Proximity 175-200 yards, 13th in SG: ARG, 79th in Putting, 7th in Opportunities Gained, 42nd in Birdie+ Gained, 119th in Bogie Avoidance
Will Gordon: 7200: +9000 – Finished 78th his only time here in 2021, 36,54,70,42,MC,MC,28,15,43,3 finishes in his last ten events, 29th in Approach, 14th in SG: OTT, 9th in Driving Distance, 55th in Par 5 scoring, 72nd in Proximity 150-175 yards, 21st in Proximity 200+ yards, 17th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 104th in SG: ARG, 81st in Putting, 59th in Opportunities Gained, 54th in Birdie+ Gained, 37th in Bogie Avoidance
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (15%)
Driving distance (5%)
Par 5 scoring (10%)
Proximity 150-175 yds (5%)
Proximity 200+ yds (5%)
Proximity 175-200 yds (5%)
SG: ARG (10%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities gained (10%)
Birdie+ gained (5%)
Bogie avoidance (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
Bets
Outrights
.5u Rickie Fowler (+2000)
.46u Si Woo Kim (+2200)
.42u Corey Conners (+2400)
.36u Davis Riley (+2900)
.2u Cameron Davis (+5500)
.12u Will Gordon (+9000)
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