I only bet one game yesterday and split it 1-1 with the Oilers coming a goal short, losing 1.08 units. After just a three-game slate last night, we have a huge 14 game NHL slate before a nice day off tomorrow. Let’s crush it as the season nears it’s end!
Bruins vs. Maple Leafs (7:00)
This should be a fantastic game between the top two teams in the Atlantic Division and could very likely be a preview of a second round series in the playoffs between these teams. It’s pretty much meaningless though, with the seeding for both of these teams already locked in and set. I broke this matchup down in depth in my article on StatSalt. As I said in that article, I’d slightly lean the Bruins and the under, but not enough to bet on either because of the lack of motivation for either team.
Canadiens vs. Capitals (7:00)
This matchup is pretty lousy with both of these teams officially eliminated from playoff contention. Like I broke down in depth in my article on StatSalt though, I see a lot of value in the Capitals here. Even though they’ve been eliminated for just the second time since 2008, they’re the far better team here than the Habs, who are coming off two shutouts in a row. At the much cheaper than expected price on this game, I’ll take the Caps for a unit. I’d slightly lean the under but not enough to bet it.
Red Wings vs. Sabres (7:00)
Although it isn’t official yet, the Sabres are likely out of a playoff spot after a disappointing 2-1 loss in Florida on Tuesday night. They played well in that game but with the Panthers getting those two points and us obviously getting zero, it would take a ton for Buffalo to get in the playoffs. That loss ended a five game point streak and they’ve gone 4-1-1 in their last six games. The Sabres are 37-32-7 on the season, six points back from Florida and the Islanders with six games left. Every point is still so important but its going to be quite the uphill battle. Buffalo’s young offense has been fantastic this year, ranking third in the NHL in scoring but the defense has been terrible. On the plus side though, Devon Levi is projected to start in goal again tonight and the young goalie of our future has been fantastic through his two starts this past week. The Red Wings are likely out of the playoffs (not officially yet, but they’d pretty much need every team above them to lose out the rest of the season) with a 35-33-9 record. Pretty disappointing season for them but they’ve been good recently with four wins in their last five games, coming off a 5-0 shutout win in Montreal on Tuesday. Detroit hasn’t been great on either end of the ice this year. The Sabres will look to complete their season sweep of the Red Wings on the road tonight after winning each of the first three games between these teams, all high scoring games as they won 8-3 at home on Halloween, won 4-3 in a shootout in Detroit on November 30th, and then 6-3 at home on December 29th. I’d expect the Sabres to win here tonight on the road and will take them for half a unit. The play I really like on this game though is the Sabres team total over 3, which I’ll take for 1.5 units. I would lean the over and would’ve hammered it if anyone besides Levi was going to be in goal for the Sabres, but with him projected to start, I’ll stay off the total.
Panthers vs. Senators (7:00)
With a 2-1 win at home on Tuesday night in a good game against the Sabres, on the back of a great performance in goal from Alex Lyon, the Panthers vaulted into the first Wild Card spot in the East, tied in points with the Islanders and a point ahead of the Penguins. They’re now 40-31-7 on the season and they’ve played great hockey lately. Florida’s offense has been fantastic all season, but their defense and goaltending has been inconsistent at best. The Senators, coming off a 3-2 overtime loss to the Hurricanes on Tuesday, are on a three game losing streak with just four wins in their last 14 games to fall to 37-34-7 on the season. They’re technically not eliminated yet, but not a chance they make the playoffs. Ottawa has been slightly below league average on both ends of the ice. Both previous games between these teams were high scoring, with the home team winning each game, a 5-3 Panthers win at home on October 29th and a 5-2 Sens win just over a week ago on March 27. I’d expect Florida to keep on rolling to help solidify their place in the playoffs. The price on this game at -265 is too expensive for me, but I’ll take the Panthers in regulation for a unit, the Panthers team total over 4 for half a unit and the alternate over 6.5 on the game for a unit.
Devils vs. Blue Jackets (7:00)
This is a pretty huge mismatch. The Devils are having a great season, in second place in the Metro Division with their spot in the playoffs clinched. They still have something to play for though as they’re just three points back from the from the Hurricanes to win the division with a 49-21-8 record. They’re coming off a dominant 5-1 win on Tuesday against the Penguins. Jersey’s been fantastic on both ends of the ice this year. The Blue Jackets on the other hand have been awful, right in the Bedard sweepstakes with a 24-45-8 record. Coming off a 4-2 loss in Toronto on Tuesday, they have just one win in their last six games. Columbus has been awful on both ends of the ice this season. The Devils won both previous games between these teams, winning a 7-1 blowout at home on October 30th and then a 3-2 victory on the road on February 14th. I expect them to easily complete the season sweep at home tonight. The moneyline at -420 and regulation line at -240 are too expensive but I’ll take the puck line for a unit. I’d slightly lean the over in this game but with it set to 7, I actually almost see value in the under, but regardless I’d rather stay off the total completely.
Penguins vs. Wild (7:00)
This should be a really fun cross conference game with both of these teams having a lot to play for. With the Panthers winning on Tuesday night, the Penguins fell out of the second Wild Card spot in the East, sitting a point back from the playoffs with a 38-30-10 record. They’re coming off a 5-1 loss in New Jersey on Tuesday night and are in quite the slump for a team trying to make a playoff push, picking up only four wins in their last twelve games. Pittsburgh’s been pretty good offensively this season but they’ve been very inconsistent defensively. The Wild have been fantastic, in a three team tie in points with the Avs and the Stars to lead the Central Division as they come into tonight’s game with a 44-23-10 record. They’re coming off two losses to the Golden Knights in a home-and-home after a 4-3 shootout loss at home on Monday night. Minnesota’s on fire lately, one of the hottest teams in the NHL right now with a 16-2-5 record in their last 23 games. They’ve been elite defensively all season and although their offense has struggled plenty at points this season, they’ve been good the last month or so even without Karill the thrill in the lineup. In the first game between these teams this season, the Penguins won 6-4 on the road in Minnesota on November 17th. I’d lean the Wild answer back with a win in Pittsburgh tonight after their two losses to Vegas, but not enough to bet it. I’d slightly lean the over as well, but not enough to bet that either, so I’ll stay off this game completely.
Islanders vs. Lightning (7:30)
The Lightning have their spot and matchup set for the playoffs, locked into third place in the Atlantic Division with their first round matchup against the Leafs officially in place. In the second half of a back-to-back tonight, coming off a 6-3 loss in MSG to the Rangers last night, they’re 45-27-6 on the season with their three game win streak coming to an end yesterday. Tampa’s offense has been very good this season and although their defense is still pretty good, it definitely took a big step back from the last several seasons. The Islanders hold the second Wild Card spot in the East, tied in points with the Panthers and a point ahead of the Penguins, with a 39-30-9 record. They’re coming off a 2-1 loss in Carolina on Sunday but they’ve played pretty well for the last month and a half to hang onto their playoff spot. The Isles offense has been pretty pathetic the entire season but their defense and the goaltending from Ilya Sorokin has been fantastic this year. The Bolts won both previous games between these teams this season at home, winning 5-3 on October 22nd and in a 5-0 shutout just this past Saturday. I’d slightly lean the Isles avoid the season sweep tonight with the Lightning in the second half of a back-to-back and likely starting backup Brian Elliot in goal, but not enough to bet it. I’d also slightly lean the under but again don’t think its worth betting with Elliot getting the start. I’ll skip betting this game completely.
Predators vs. Hurricanes (8:00)
This should be a fun defensive battle in this cross-conference game. The Hurricanes are having a fantastic season and have a three point lead over the Devils as they lead the Metro Division with a 50-18-9 record, with their spot in the playoffs already clinched. Coming off a 3-2 overtime win at home against the Sens on Tuesday, they’re on a three game win streak. Carolina’s played very good on both ends of the ice, especially defensively as one of the most elite defensive teams in the NHL. The Predators, who are coming off a 3-2 overtime win at home against the Golden Knights at home on Tuesday to improve to 39-30-8 on the season, still have a bit of hope in the playoff race in the West, just three points back from the Jets (with a game in hand) and Flames (with two games in hand). Nashville’s been good defensively this season with an elite goalie in Juuse Saros but their offense has struggled all year. The Preds won the first game between these teams this season, winning 5-3 in Carolina on January 5th. I’d expect the Canes to answer back with a win on the road here and will take them for half a unit. Although the first game went over pretty easily, I expect this game to stay under the total and will take the alternate under 6 here for a unit.
Blues vs. Rangers (8:00)
This could be a really fun cross-conference game tonight despite the huge talent discrepancy between these teams. The Rangers are coming off a big 6-3 win in an entertaining, heated game at home last night against the Lightning. They have third place in the Metro Division clinched with a 46-21-11 record, likely facing the Devils in the first round of the playoffs. The Rags have been hot lately with an 11-2-2 record in their last 15 games. New York’s played really well on both ends of the ice this year, but in the second half of a back-to-back tonight, they’ll likely start backup Jaro Halak in goal tonight instead of Shesterkin. The Blues are having a disappointing year with a 36-35-7 on the season and were big sellers before the deadline. They are coming off a 4-2 win at home against the Flyers on Tuesday and have played pretty well recently, with a 7-2-2 record in last eleven games. The offense for St. Louis has been decent but their defense has been horrendous. The Rags won the first game between these teams this season, winning 6-4 at home on December 5th. I’d lean the Rangers win again here, even in the second half of a back-to-back, but at -180, I don’t think they’re worth betting on with Halak between the pipes. I really like the over though in this game, which I will take for 1.5 units.
Stars vs. Flyers (8:30)
This game is a huge mismatch with these two cross-conference teams meeting. The Stars are in a three way tie in points with the Avs and Wild to lead the Central Division, with a 42-21-14 record on the season. They’ve won three of their last four games, coming off a 5-1 blowout win at home against the Preds on Monday night. Dallas has played really well on both ends of the ice this season. The Flyers have had a bad season, eliminated from playoff contention with a 29-35-13 record. They’re on a four game losing streak, coming off a 4-2 loss in St. Louis on Tuesday. Philly’s struggled on both ends of the ice this year, but especially offensively. The Stars won the first game between these teams in Philly in a blowout on November 13th. I’d expect them to win easily tonight at home. The price on the game though is -245, but I’m still going to take them in regulation here for 1.5 units. I’d lean the over on the game but not enough to bet it.
Canucks vs. Blackhawks (10:00)
This is a pretty lousy matchup tonight. The Blackhawks are one of the worst teams in the NHL, with a 25-46-6 record, with an eight game losing streak coming to an end on Tuesday night with a 4-3 win in Calgary, just their fourth wins in their last 19 games. Chicago’s been awful on both ends of the ice. The Canucks have had a disappointing season, coming into tonight’s game on a four game losing streak after a 5-2 loss at home to the Kraken (big winner for me on the over) on Tuesday night. Prior to that, they were playing well with a 10-4-2 record in their last 16 games. Vancouver’s been good offensively all season, but terrible defensively. The Canucks won both previous games between these teams this season, winning 5-2 at home on January 24th and then 4-2 on the road in Chicago on March 26th. I’m expecting them to complete the season sweep tonight at home. The price at -230 is way too expensive but I’m going to load up on the Nuks tonight with a unit on them in regulation and 1.5 units on their team total over 3.5.
Golden Knights vs. Kings (10:00)
This should be a great matchup between two of the top three teams in the Western Conference in this Pacific Division game, both with their spots in the playoffs clinched. The Golden Knights have a point lead over the Oilers to lead the West with a 48-22-8 record, coming off a 3-2 overtime loss in Nashville on Tuesday night. Vegas has played really well on both ends of the ice. The Kings, who are coming off a 3-1 loss at home to the Oilers on Tuesday are in third place in the Pacific with a 45-23-10 record, four points back from Vegas. LA’s been good offensively, but they’ve been inconsistent on the back end this season. They lead the season series between these teams 2-1, losing 4-3 at home on October 11th, then winning 4-2 at home on December 27th, and 5-1 in Vegas on January 7th. I’d slightly lean the Knights and the under in this game but not enough to bet either. Its should be a very fun game to watch though.
Sharks vs. Avalanche (10:30)
Tonight these two Western Conference teams meet again in San Jose for the second time in three days after a competitive 4-3 overtime win for the Avalanche on Tuesday, a game that they fucked me big time on to close out that slate, with the Avs blowing a 3-1 lead in the third period, losing my regulation bet as the Sharks forced OT. That was much closer of a game than when the Avs won the first game between these teams this season in a 6-0 blowout at home on March 7th. Colorado has been great once again this year to defend their Cup title. They’re in a three way tie in points with Dallas and the Wild to lead the Central Division, with a 46-24-6 record. They have eleven wins in their last 13 games. The Avs have played really well on both ends of the ice. The Sharks are one of the worst teams in the NHL with a 22-39-16 record, but are surprisingly on a four game point streak, with their three game win streak coming to an end with that loss on Tuesday. San Jose has been terrible statistically on both ends of the ice. I’m going back to the same play I had here on Tuesday with the Avalanche in regulation here for a unit. The moneyline, despite being cheaper than I expected tonight on them at -240 is still a bit too expensive for me. I’d lean the over on the game but not enough to bet it.
Kraken vs. Coyotes (10:30)
Not the best matchup here in the Western Conference to close out tonight’s slate just as it wasn’t on Monday night when they met the first time this season and the Kraken won in an 8-1 blowout (double winner without a sweat). Seattle’s comfortably in the first Wild Card spot in the West with a 43-26-8 record, with a five point lead over the Jets and the Flames. They have three wins in their last four games, coming off a 5-2 win in Vancouver on Tuesday night (big winner on the over for me). The Kraken has been good offensively all season but inconsistent defensively. The Coyotes are one of the worst teams in the NHL with a 27-38-13 record (still a bit too good to be a favorite in the Bedard sweepstakes though). Coming off that blowout in Seattle on Monday, the Yotes are on a seven game losing streak. They’ve been terrible on the road where they have just a 7-24-9 record. Arizona’s struggled mightily on both ends of the ice this season. The Kraken are the far better team in this matchup and I expect them to win easily tonight on home ice. The moneyline at -345 and the regulation line at -200 are too expensive but I’ll take the Kraken puck line and their team total over 4 for a unit each, and the over on the game for half a unit.
Game Bets
1u Capitals ML (-170)
.5u Sabres ML (-110)
1.5u Sabres TT over 3 (-159)
1u Panthers in regulation (-150)
.5u Panthers TT over 4 (-130)
1u Panthers/Senators over 6.5 (-165)
1u Devils -1.5 (-152)
.5u Hurricanes ML (-210)
1u Hurricanes/Predators under 6 (-150)
1.5u Rangers/Blues over 6.5 (-125)
1.5u Stars in regulation (-148)
1u Canucks in regulation (-139)
1.5u Canucks TT over 3.5 (-143)
1u Avalanche in regulation (-143)
1u Kraken -1.5 (-112)
1u Kraken TT over 4 (-121)
.5u Kraken/Coyotes over 6.5 (-110)
Futures
1u Boston Bruins – Stanley Cup Champions (+1000)
1.5u Boston Bruins – Stanley Cup Champions (+1100)
2u Vegas Golden Knights – Stanley Cup Champions (+1200)
1.5u Carolina Hurricanes – Stanley Cup Champions (+1300)
1u New York Rangers – Stanley Cup Champions (+1300)
1u New Jersey Devils – Stanley Cup Champions (+1600)
.5u Minnesota Wild – Stanley Cup Champions (+2000)
1u Minnesota Wild – Western Conference Champions (+800)
Record: 675-550-28 (-56.46 units)
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