Although I don’t expect this to be the greatest series in the East between the President’s Trophy winning Bruins, who set records as the best regular season team in NHL history this year and the second Wild Card team, the Florida Panthers, I do expect some really fun hockey in this matchup. These Atlantic Division teams surprisingly split their four regular season games this year, all high-scoring affairs, with the Bruins winning 5-3 at home on October 17th, the Panthers answering back with a 5-2 home win on November 23rd, the Bruins winning 7-3 on December 19th at home, and then the Panthers finishing the regular season series with a 4-3 overtime victory on home ice on January 28th.
The Boston Bruins had a historic year, setting NHL league records for the most wins and most points in a single seasons this year, as they dominated the regular season, with the President’s Trophy locked up early as they ended the greatest regular season in NHL history with an impressive 65-12-5 record. The B’s were just the fourth team in league history to get to 60 wins in a year. Despite not having anything to play for late in the season, they come into the playoffs on an eight-game winning streak with a 15-1 record in their last 16 games. With the regular season this veteran-led team has had, any finish to the year without them lifting the Stanley Cup will be a disappointment. There’s just some Boston magic to this team this season, and this has felt all year that they’ll lift Lord Stanley in captain Patrice Bergeron’s likely last ride.
Boston has the second-best offense in the NHL, only trailing the Oilers, as they’ve scored an average of 3.66 goals per game on an average of 33 shots per game. They’ve generated the ninth-most expected goals (3.43 per game) and the 14th-most high-danger shots in the league. The B’s have been good on the power play, scoring on 22.2% of their chances, the twelfth-best in the NHL. David Pastrnak leads them in scoring this season with 113 points, 61 goals, and 52 assists.
The Bruins are the best defensive team in the NHL by a significant margin. They’ve allowed the fewest goals in the NHL, an average of just 2.12 goals per game on an average of 29.8 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the seventh-fewest expected goals (2.9 per game) and the eleventh-fewest high-danger shots. The B’s have the best penalty kill in the league at 87.3%. The Vezina favorite, Linus Ullmark is projected to start in goal in Game 1. This season he led the NHL with a 40-6–1 record, a 1.89 GAA, a .938 save percentage, and two shutouts. He tied the team record for wins on a season, was the fastest goalie in NHL history to 40 victories, tied the Bruins record for save percentage, and had the lowest GAA for a Bruin since 1937-38. His backup is almost just a good as Jeremy Swayman has been statistically the third-best goalie in the NHL this season with a 24-6-4 record, a 2.27 GAA, a .920 save percentage, and four shutouts. The only potential issue with the goaltending will be a lack of experience in the playoffs for both of these guys.
After a slow start to the year after winning the President’s Trophy last year and getting bounced from the playoffs in the second round in the Battle of Florida against their rival Lightning, the Florida Panthers really rallied in the second half of the season. They finished the regular season in the second and final Wild Card spot in the East, with a 42-32-8 record, a point ahead of the Penguins and the Sabres. Despite closing out the regular season with two losses, they closed the regular season hot with a 6-1-1 record in their last eight games.
Florida has been very good offensively this season. They’re averaging 3.51 goals per game, the sixth-most in the NHL, on an average of 36.8 shots per game. They’ve generated the most expected goals (3.8 per game) and the most high-danger shots in the league. The Panthers’ power play has scored on 22.8% of their chances, the tenth-best in the NHL. Matthew Tkachuk (109 points, 69 assists), who was acquired in the offseason from the Calgary Flames and became an excellent addition to the Cats, and Carter Verhaeghe (42 goals) lead Florida in scoring this season.
The Panthers have struggled on the back end, allowing an average of 3.68 goals per game this season, the twelfth-most in the NHL, on an average of 31.7 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the eighth-most expected goals (3.42 per game) and the third-most high-danger shots. Their penalty kill has struggled at just 75.9%, the tenth-worst in the NHL. Alex Lyon, the third-string goalie to start the season for Florida has become their starter and is projected to start in goal for Game 1 tonight with Sergei Bobrovsky having his struggles this year in goal (24-20-3 record, 3.07 GAA, .901 save percentage) and Spencer Knight away from the team for a bulk of the season with personal issues. Lyon caught some lightning in a bottle late in the year, starting the last eight games for Florida this season and going 6-1-1 in those games in their playoff push. He ended the regular season with a 9-4-2 record, a 2.89 GAA, a .914 save percentage, and a shutout on the year.
Deservingly so, the Bruins are the favorites to win the Stanley Cup this year, going into the playoffs at +280. I don’t see any value in betting that at this point, even though I do think they win the Cup, but at that price you’re better off betting them just game by game. I have some incredible value on futures on this team from earlier in the year, with a unit on them at +1000 and another 1.5 units on them at +1100. I love that value and I’m so glad I locked them in so earlier, although as a Sabres fan I hate ‘em. I won’t be hedging that at all and I’m going to ride out the B’s to lift Lord Stanley. This team has experience in the playoffs with three appearances in the Cup Finals since 2011. The only two concerns anyone could have with this roster and they way they’ve run through the regular season is the history of historic record-breaking teams with the Red Wings in the 90s losing in the first round and Tampa getting swept in the first round by the Blue Jackets in 2019 after tying Detroit’s record (before going on to win the Cup back to back in 2020 and 2021, and going to three straight Cup Finals) and the lack of experience in the playoffs for Ullmark and Swayman.
Obviously, expecting Boston to win the Cup, of course they should win this series and have the far better defense than the Panthers do. The books made this series so expensive to bet through that it’s tough to take the Bruins here. The -375 line is way too expensive for me and even the Bruins to win it in six or less games is a bit pricey at -177, but I will take that for a unit.
With how dominant the Bruins have been, especially at home, I expect them to win Game 1 for the first of the 16 games I expect them to win in these playoffs on their way to lifting the Stanley Cup and will take them in regulation for a unit.
I expect the games in this series to trend over just like the over hit in all four regular season games between these teams with two top-tier offenses facing off and I’ll take the over for a unit in Game 1.
Futures
1u Boston Bruins – Stanley Cup Champions (+1000)
1.5u Boston Bruins – Stanley Cup Champions (+1100)
Series Bets
1u Bruins to win series in six games or less (-177)
Game 1 Bets
1u Bruins in regulation (-130)
1u Bruins/Panthers over 6 (-124)
Please follow me:
Instagram: @atownszone
Twitter: @atownszone
If you like the site and my work, share it with your friends!
… and tell Dave Portnoy to hire me at Barstool…
A Town's Zone 
One thought on “NHL Playoffs 2023 Series Preview: Bruins vs. Panthers”