I’m anticipating a surprisingly fun, well matched first round series between the Central Division leading Colorado Avalanche, defending their Stanley Cup and the first Wild Card team in the West, the Seattle Kraken, who are in the playoffs for the first time in their short existence. All three games between these teams were close in the regular season, decided by just a goal all won on the road, with the Kraken winning two of the three games. The Kraken won the first game 3-2 in Colorado on October 21st, the Avs answered back with a 2-1 shootout win on the road in Seattle on January 21st, and the Kraken won the regular season series with a 3-2 win on the road in overtime on March 5th.
The defending Stanley Cup Champion Colorado Avalanche have been fantastic once again this season, finishing the regular season in first place in the Central Division, a point ahead of the Stars with a 41-24-7 record. They started the year a bit slow with the usual Cup hangover, but they were one of the hottest teams in the NHL in the second half of the season, and finished the regular season on fire, going 16-2-1 in their last 19 games.
Colorado has improved immensely on the offensive end of the ice in the closing two months of the season. On the year they’ve scored an average of 3.34 goals per game, the tenth-most in the NHL, on an average of 33.3 shots per game. They’ve generated the 16th-fewest expected goals (3.16 per game) and the eleventh-fewest high-danger shots in the league. The Avs’ power play has been very good, ranking sixth in the NHL, scoring on 24.5% of their chances. They’re led in scoring by Nathan McKinnon (111 points, 69 assists) and Mikko Rantanen (55 goals).
The Avalanche have been very good defensively all season. They’ve allowed just the ninth-fewest goals in the NHL, an average of 2.72 goals per game on an average of 31 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the tenth-fewest expected goals (2.94 per game) and the 13th-fewest high-danger shots. The Avs have killed off 79% of their penalties. Alexandar Georgiev, acquired from the Rangers in the offseason, has had a fantastic season in goal. He has a 40-16-6 record, a 2.53 GAA, a .919 save percentage, and five shutouts. Colorado has a solid backup in Pavel Francouz, who contributed in the playoffs last year. This season he has an 8-7-1 record, a 2.61 GAA, a .915 save percentage, and a shutout.
After being horrible in their inaugural season last year, the Seattle Kraken improved immensely this season and had success while being very fun to watch. They finished the regular season comfortably in the first Wild Card spot in the Western Conference with a 46-28-8 record, five points ahead of the Jets and four points behind the Kings. Although they lost their last two games of the year in a home-and-home against Vegas, they won their five straight games prior.
The Kraken have been very good offensively this season. They’ve scored the fifth-most goals in the NHL, an average of 3.52 goals per game on an average of 30.5 shots per game. They’ve generated the tenth-fewest expected goals (3.08 per game) and the ninth-fewest high-danger shots in the league. Seattle has scored on 19.8% of their power play chances, the twelfth-fewest in the NHL. They’re led in scoring by Jared McCann (70 points, 40 goals) and Vince Dunn (64 points, 50 assists).
Defensively, Seattle’s been inconsistent and they’ve struggled at times. They’ve allowed an average of 3.07 goals per game, the 14th-fewest in the NHL, on an average of 27 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the eighth-fewest expected goals (2.92 per game) and the tenth-fewest high-danger shots. The Kraken have killed off 76.7% of their penalties. Philipp Grubauer is projected to start in Game 1 against his former team. This season he has a 17-14–4 record with a 2.85 GAA and a .895 save percentage. Backing him up is Martin Jones, who has a 27-13-3 record, a 2.99 GAA, a .887 save percentage, and three shutouts.
I don’t expect either of these teams to win the Stanley Cup this season, although it wouldn’t shock me to see the Avs once again win the Western Conference in their defense of the Stanley Cup. I just don’t see them as being quite as deep and dominant as they were last year. They’re the favorite out of the West but at +575 to win the Cup and +225 to win the West, I don’t see any value in adding any futures here.
I think the Avs are the much deeper team here and have a significantly better defense, but these teams are much more evenly matched than the series line at -305 is. All three games between these teams in the regular season were determined by just a goal,
with two of those matchups needing more than 60 minutes to decide. I don’t see the Kraken winning it, but it wouldn’t shock me if this series goes six or seven games. I’ll stay off any series bets for this one at the prices its at.
Expecting Colorado to win the series, the Avalanche should definitely win Game 1 at home. The moneyline I think is too expensive at -210, but I’ll take the Avs in regulation for half a unit.
I’d lean the games in this series trend under. All three regular season games between these teams stayed under and both teams trended under in the regular season. The under went 43-34-5 in Avs games and 40-38-4 in Kraken games. Colorado has allowed just the ninth-fewest goals in the NHL, having given up the tenth-fewest expected goals and the 13th-fewest high-danger shots in the league. The Kraken, despite allowing the 14th-fewest goals in the league, have given up just the eighth-fewest expected goals and the tenth-fewest high-danger shots in the NHL. That being said, I don’t love it enough to bet it in Game 1.
Futures
None
Series Bets
None
Game 1 Bets
.5u Avalanche in regulation (-122)
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