The Western Conference leading Vegas Golden Knights will face off against the second Wild Card Winnipeg Jets in the first round of the playoffs. The Knights swept the regular season series between these cross-division teams, winning 5-2 at home on October 20th, 2-1 in overtime at home in Vegas on October 30th, and then 6-5 on the road in Winnipeg on December 13th.
After missing the playoffs for the first time in franchise history last season, the Golden Knights bounced back this year, quietly finishing the regular season as the top seed in the West with a 51-22-9 record, a point ahead of the Oilers. They closed out the regular season hot, on an eight game point streak with a great 24-4-5 record in their last 33 games. Playoff hockey in Vegas is electric and T-Mobile Arena is going to be rocking.
Vegas has had success on both ends of the ice. They’ve scored an average of 3.26 goals per game, the 14th-most in the NHL, on an average of 31.5 shots per game. They’ve generated the 16th-most expected goals (3.18 per game) and the tenth-most high-danger shots in the league. The Knights have scored on 20.3% of their power play opportunities. They’re led in scoring by Jack Eichel (66 points), Jonathan Marchessault (28 goals), and Chandler Stephenson (48 assists). Eichel has played in 476 regular season games in the NHL and tonight he will finally start in the first playoff game of his career. Vegas also announced a huge addition to their lineup this week, activating captain Mark Stone from the long-term IR, with the salary cap no longer existing in the playoffs.
The Golden Knights have allowed just the eleventh-fewest goals in the NHL, an average of 2.74 goals per game on an average of 30.9 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the fifth-fewest expected goals (2.85 per game) and the sixth-fewest high-danger shots. Vegas has killed off 77.6% of their penalties. Confirmed to start in Game 1 in goal for the Knights will be Laurent Brossoit, who in his return from injury late in the season started seven of the last ten games for Vegas. In his limited starts this year he hasn’t lost in regulation, with a 7-0-3 record, a 2.17 GAA, and a .927 save percentage. Backing him up is veteran Jonathan Quick, acquired at the trade deadline from LA by way of Columbus. This season he has a 16-15–6 record, a 3.41 GAA, a .882 save percentage, and two shutouts during his time with both the Kings and the Knights.
The Winnipeg Jets had a great first half of the season but they weren’t very good in the second half of the year, pretty much limping into the playoffs in the second Wild Card spot in the West with a 46-33-3 record. Although they won five of their last seven games, they only won eleven of their last 25 games.
The Jets have struggled offensively this season, scoring the twelfth-fewest goals in the NHL, an average of 3 goals per game on an average of 30.3 shots per game. They’ve generated the 13th-most expected goals (3.24 per game) and the 16th-most high-danger shots in the league. Winnipeg has scored on 19.3% of their power play chances, the tenth-fewest in the NHL. They’re led in scoring this season by Kyle Connor (80 points), Mark Scheifele (42 goals), and Josh Morrissey (60 assists).
Winnipeg has been good defensively this season, allowing an average of 2.73 per game, the tenth-fewest in the NHL, on an average of 30.3 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the 15th-fewest expected goals (3.04 per game) and the eighth-fewest high-danger shots. The Jets have the seventh-best penalty kill in the NHL this season, killing off 82.4% of their penalties. One of the best goalies in the league, Connor Hellebuyck, is projected to start in goal today. Hellebuyck has a 37-25-2 record, a 2.49 GAA, a .920 save percentage, and four shutouts this season.
I have two units on a future from very early in the season for the Golden Knights to win the Stanley Cup at +1200. Although I don’t see them winning the Cup, I like that value on them to get to the West Finals and be able to use that future as a decent hedge and could see them making a run at winning the West with how wide open the whole Western Conference is this year. I expect Vegas to win this series. They’ve quietly played well all season and the Jets really struggled in the second half of the season, playing at a level below .500. Along with letting my future on the Knights ride, I’m also going to add them to win the series for 1.5 units. From a game by game perspective, these teams match up pretty well with an edge offensively to the Golden Knights. Expecting them to win the series I will also take Vegas to win Game 1 at home in the fortress for a unit.
Along with Vegas to win, I expect Jack Eichel to shine in his first playoff appearance after years and years of waiting and leading the Knights in points in the regular season. I’ll take him to score and to have over 2.5 shots on goal for half a unit each.
I’m expecting the games between these teams to trend under, with two good defenses and the Jets really struggling offensively. Both teams have trended under on the season, with the under going 51-24-7 in Jets games and 42-35-5 in Knights games. I’ll take the alternate under 6 in Game 1 for half a unit.
Futures
2u Vegas Golden Knights – Stanley Cup Champions (+1200)
Series Bets
1.5u Golden Knights to win series (-175)
Game 1 Bets
1u Golden Knights ML (-157)
.5u Golden Knights/Jets under 6 (-130)
.5u Jack Eichel over .5 goals (+138)
.5u Jack Eichel over 2.5 shots (-165)
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