Yesterday with a complete collapse in the last four minutes for the Hurricanes to make their game go over, and the Oilers losing in overtime on what should have been high sticking, I ended the night going 4-6-1 on the NHL to lose 1.5 units. Today we have an early start for Game 3s!
Game 3: Jets vs. Golden Knights (4:00)
After two games in Vegas, this series between the Golden Knights and the Jets shifts to Winnipeg tied up at 1-1. Both previous games went completely different ways, with the Jets winning 5-1 on the road in Game 1, outshooting Vegas 31-17, and outplaying them by an expected goal rate of 3.7-2.02 as the Knights had their fewest shots all season. Vegas answered back in a big way in Game 2 on Thursday night, winning 5-2 at home, and outshooting the Jets 39-33. Although Winnipeg outplayed the Knights by an expected goal rate of 3.26-3.14, Mark Stone’s two third-period goals led to a Vegas win and a tied series coming into today’s game. I still like Vegas to win this series and expect them to win tonight on the road to take their first series lead. I’ll take them for half a unit at even money. I also like the under here and will take the alternate under 6 for half a unit.
Game 3: Lightning vs. Maple Leafs (7:00)
After getting dominated in Game 1 at home on Tuesday night, losing 7-3, the Leafs bounced back in a huge way on Thursday with a 7-2 blowout win of their own at home in Game 2 to even up this series heading to Tampa. They scored early and often with Mitch Marner scoring on the power play just 47 seconds into the game and opening the game with a 3-0 first period. Toronto dominated the game, outshooting the Bolts 37-22 and absolutely crushing the Lightning by an expected goal rate of 4.7-1.62. After this series shifts to Tampa, I feel like tonight’s game is a coin flip on the winner and I’ll stay off the side entirely. I love the over though and I’ll take the alternate over 6 tonight for 2 units.
Game 3: Rangers vs. Devils (8:00)
The Devils are fucked. They’ve been awful in this series, which has been quite the disappointment to watch. I thought this series was going to be competitive, going 6 or 7 games but that isn’t the case, as the Rangers have dominated the first two games on the road in Jersey, winning both 5-1. Shesterkin’s the x-factor in this series but along with his elite play in goal, the Devils aren’t generating any chances and they’re getting shut down by the Rags’ elite, veteran defense. Tonight’s game on the road now becomes a must-win for the Devils in MSG but I just don’t see that happening after these first two games. With a good amount risked on this series to go six games and the Devils to win it, I have to start hedging here. I’ll take the Rangers for 1.5 units.
Game 3: Kraken vs. Avalanche (10:00)
Despite this series being tied, the Avs have been the better team in both games but this has been a very close series. They outshot the Kraken 35-30 and outplayed them by an expected goal rate of 3.73-2.33 but couldn’t get the win at home in Game 1, shocking a lot of people with a 3-1 Seattle win. In Game 2 on Thursday night the Avalanche answered back with a much-needed 3-2 win at home to even the series, outshooting Seattle 41-29 and outplaying them by an expected goal rate of 3.65-2.39. I expect the experience and depth of Colorado to shine through here to give them their first lead of this series with a win tonight to ruin the first-ever playoff game at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle. I’ll take them for half a unit. I also like the under here, with both previous games of the series staying under and all three regular season games between these teams staying under. I’ll take the under for half a unit.
Game Bets
.5u Golden Knights (+100)
.5u Jets/Golden Knights under 6 (-143)
2u Maple Leafs/Lightning over 6 (-132)
2u Rangers ML (-155)
.5u Avalanche ML (-165)
.5u Avalanche/Kraken under 6 (-120)
Series Bets
1u Bruins to win series in six games or less (-177)
1.5u Bruins to win series in five games or less (-125)
1.5u Hurricanes/Islanders over 5.5 games (-162)
1.5u Stars to win series (-150)
2.5u Stars/Wild over 5.5 games (-167)
.5u Stars/Wild over 6.5 games (+220)
1.5u Oilers to win series in six games or less (-112)
2u Devils/Rangers over 5.5 games (-167)
1u Devils to win series (-125)
2u Maple Leafs to win series (-177)
1u Maple Leafs/Lightning over 5.5 games (-162)
1.5u Golden Knights to win series (-175)
2u Oilers to win series (-130)
2u Avalanche to win series (-148)
Futures
1u Boston Bruins – Stanley Cup Champions (+1000)
1.5u Boston Bruins – Stanley Cup Champions (+1100)
2u Vegas Golden Knights – Stanley Cup Champions (+1200)
1.5u Carolina Hurricanes – Stanley Cup Champions (+1300)
1u New York Rangers – Stanley Cup Champions (+1300)
1u New Jersey Devils – Stanley Cup Champions (+1600)
.5u Minnesota Wild – Stanley Cup Champions (+2000)
1u Minnesota Wild – Western Conference Champions (+800)
2u Edmonton Oilers – Stanley Cup Champions (+800)
Record: 749-586-31 (-26.86 units)
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