I split yesterday’s NHL slate, going 3-3 to lose 1.42 units. Today we have a few early games to start off our Sunday with pivotal Game 4s. Let’s crush them!
Game 4: Islanders vs. Hurricanes (1:00)
The Canes’ struggles in the playoffs on the road continued in Game 3 where they gave up four goals in the final four minutes to lose 5-1 on Long Island. The Islanders played really well in both of the first two games of this series in Carolina and came up just short of getting a win on the road, but they turned it into a competitive series on Friday night with a huge win on home ice. Although the Hurricanes are better statistically on both ends of the ice in this matchup, despite the stats, I expect the Islanders to win on home ice today and tie up this series heading back to Carolina, with the elite goaltending of Ilya Sorokin in a rocking UBS Arena to be the x-factor in the win.
The Islanders outshot Carolina 37-31 and dominated the Hurricanes by an expected goal rate of 5.16-2.37. Although I was thrilled to see the Isles get the win and turn this into a competitive series, but I ended up losing on the game. Despite winning on the Isles ML, brutal swing in the last four minutes of the game by the Canes with my under losing as they gave up four goals. And they only generated one shot in the last five minutes of the game to lose my shots prop by just two. I like the Islanders to win again to tie up this series at home, which will cash my 1.5 unit series bet on this series to go over 5.5 games. I’m also gonna double down here with a unit on the moneyline. I’ll also go right back to the under, with a unit on the alternate under 5.5.
Game 4: Panthers vs. Bruins (3:30)
After two terrible games that they split in Boston, the Bruins got right back on track in Game 3 in Florida, winning 4-2 in dominant fashion, getting out to a 4-0 lead with Linus Ullmark having a shutout for the first 54:41 of the game. They outshot the Panthers 35-31 but got outplayed by an expected goal rate of 3.46-3.42. This series has been way closer than I expected it to be, but the Bruins are absolutely the better team in this matchup and I still like them to win the series in five or six games. With that, I expect a Bruins win today on the road to take a solid 3-1 series lead back to Boston with the chance to finish the gentleman’s sweep at home in Game 5. I still have my prop of the Bruins to win in five games, which I’m just letting ride. I thought about doubling down on the B’s but I’ll just let the series bets ride on their own. I like the over, which I’ll take for half a unit.
Game 4: Wild vs. Stars (6:30)
This series has been fantastic, with all three games going different ways in highly entertaining fashion. The Wild opened the series with a 3-2 double overtime win on the road in Game 1, then the Stars answered back with a dominant 7-3 win at home in Game 2. On Friday for Game 3 with the series shifting to Minnesota, the Wild got their dominant win, winning 5-1 at home. They outshot Dallas 25-24 and outplayed the Stars by an expected goal rate of 2.83-1.93. This series is absolutely going six or seven games, so I really love that for my series plays. I can cash the over 5.5 games prop with a Stars win on the road tonight and I expect them to even up the series. I’ll also double down on that tonight with half a unit on the Stars ML. I’d slightly lean the under but not enough to bet it.
Game 4: Kings vs. Oilers (9:00)
This has been an interesting series that hasn’t gone great for me. The Kings lead the series 2-1, getting a 4-3 overtime win on the power play after an Oilers third period collapse in Game 1, then Edmonton answering back with a 4-2 win at home to even the series in Game 2, and the Kings taking the series lead once again in Game 3 at home, winning once again in overtime on the power play again, 3-2 on Friday night. The game winner should not have been a goal as the play should have clearly been blown dead on a high sticking call, but after review they said it wasn’t conclusive…which was fucking bullshit. The Oilers outshot LA 40-31 in that game and outplayed the Kings by an expected goal rate of 3.89-3.18. There’s been some bad penalty calls in this series which has effected the outcome of these games, but Edmonton hasn’t done themselves any favors as they’ve been awful on the penalty kill, giving up both OT game winners and both of the game-tying goals with a guy in the box. Maybe kill off a fucking penalty. The Oilers have to win this game and I already have a good sized 1.5 unit bet on them to win this series in six games or less, which can lose with a loss. I’m going to double down on it though with a unit on the Oil. I also like the over here, and I’ll take the alternate over 6 for half a unit.
Game Bets
1u Islanders ML (-124)
1u Islanders/Hurricanes under 5.5 (-155)
.5u Bruins/Panthers over 6 (-120)
.5u Stars ML (+100)
1u Oilers ML (-160)
.5u Oilers/Kings over 6 (-136)
Series Bets
1u Bruins to win series in six games or less (-177)
1.5u Bruins to win series in five games or less (-125)
1.5u Hurricanes/Islanders over 5.5 games (-162)
1.5u Stars to win series (-150)
2.5u Stars/Wild over 5.5 games (-167)
.5u Stars/Wild over 6.5 games (+220)
1.5u Oilers to win series in six games or less (-112)
2u Devils/Rangers over 5.5 games (-167)
1u Devils to win series (-125)
2u Maple Leafs to win series (-177)
1u Maple Leafs/Lightning over 5.5 games (-162)
1.5u Golden Knights to win series (-175)
2u Oilers to win series (-130)
2u Avalanche to win series (-148)
Futures
1u Boston Bruins – Stanley Cup Champions (+1000)
1.5u Boston Bruins – Stanley Cup Champions (+1100)
2u Vegas Golden Knights – Stanley Cup Champions (+1200)
1.5u Carolina Hurricanes – Stanley Cup Champions (+1300)
1u New York Rangers – Stanley Cup Champions (+1300)
1u New Jersey Devils – Stanley Cup Champions (+1600)
.5u Minnesota Wild – Stanley Cup Champions (+2000)
1u Minnesota Wild – Western Conference Champions (+800)
2u Edmonton Oilers – Stanley Cup Champions (+800)
Record: 752-589-31 (-28.28 units)
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