My bets on last night’s NHL slate weren’t great, going 2-4 to lose 3.14 units but I cashed 2 units on my Devils/Rangers series prop to go over 5.5 games. We have just three Game 5s tonight, with an elimination scenario in play for the first time this year!
Game 5: Hurricanes vs. Islanders (7:00)
After playing great in Game 3 at home to make this a 2-1 series, the Islanders played horribly in Game 4 at home on Sunday afternoon, giving the Hurricanes the chance to end this series tonight on home ice in Game 5. The Canes dominated Game 4 at UBS Arena, with a 5-2 win on Long Island, their first playoff win on the road in their last eight games going back to last season. They crushed the Isles, outplaying them by an expected goal rate of 3.67-2.19 despite both teams generating 29 shots. I have a prop on this series to go over 5.5 games to win 1.5 units but I don’t see that cashing, with how dominant the Hurricanes have been in Games 1,2, and 4. I expect the Canes to win this series at home tonight and send the Isles golfing. I’ll hedge out of that bet with 2 units on the Carolina moneyline tonight and half a unit on the puck line. With this being an elimination game, I’ll also take the alternate over 5 in this game for a unit. If the Hurricanes are up late in the third period, the net should be empty early and stay that way.
Game 5: Stars vs. Wild (8:00)
This series between the Dallas Stars and the Minnesota Wild has been excellent, tied at 2-2 going into tonight’s Game 5 in Dallas. These teams have traded wins, each winning once at home and then once on the road. The Wild opened the series with a 3-2 win in double overtime in Dallas and the Stars answered back with a big 7-3 win at home. When the series shifted to Minnesota, the Wild won in a dominant 5-1 victory in Game 3 and then the Stars answered back to tie the series with a 3-2 win on the road in Game 4 on Sunday. Although they got the win, Dallas was outshot 34-24 by the Wild and outplayed by an expected goal rate of 3.54-3.29. Minnesota got completely hosed by the refs in that game with complete bullshit calls. I cashed my series prop for it to go over 5.5 games for a nice 2.5 unit win on Sunday and I really think this series goes seven games. In Game 5 tonight, I’d slightly lean the Stars win at home and the under but not nearly enough to even consider betting either. I’ll lay off this game entirely.
Game 5: Oilers vs. Kings (9:30)
Game 4 in this series on Sunday night was absolutely incredible to even up this series. The Kings started the game off hot but blew a 3-0 first period lead, going on to lose 5-4 in overtime as Edmonton put together a hell of a comeback. Jack Campbell was sensational coming in relief of Stuart Skinner, making 27 saves on 28 shots he saw with a .964 save percentage. It eventually ended up being a very evenly matched game with the Kings just barely outplaying the Oilers by an expected goal rate of 5.1-4.98 but outshot 42-39, just an offensive show on both ends of the ice. This series has seen some awful officiating that has determined games, mainly in the Kings favor, but that flipped in the Oilers favor in Game 4, with the most bullshit penalty call on Kevin Fiala call for his hit on Draisaitl, and then of course Leon scored on it. I have two series bets on this game on the Oilers to win it in six games along with them to just win the series. I’m a bit worried on the six games prop but I do think Edmonton wins tonight, so I’m just letting that ride and I’ll consider hedging in Game 6 in LA if the Oilers win tonight. No chance I’m doubling down on it with the insane price on this game. There’s no way that Edmonton is worth the -230 price. If anything you’re getting fantastic value on LA at +190, but I’ll stay off the side in this game completely. I like the over a lot though, which I’ll take for 1.5 units.
Game Bets
2u Hurricanes ML (-157)
.5u Hurricanes -1.5 (+170)
1u Hurricanes/Islanders over 5 (-148)
1.5u Oilers/Kings over 6.5 (-120)
Series Bets
1u Bruins to win series in six games or less (-177)
1.5u Bruins to win series in five games or less (-125)
1.5u Hurricanes/Islanders over 5.5 games (-162)
1.5u Stars to win series (-150)
.5u Stars/Wild over 6.5 games (+220)
1.5u Oilers to win series in six games or less (-112)
1u Devils to win series (-125)
2u Maple Leafs to win series (-177)
1u Maple Leafs/Lightning over 5.5 games (-162)
1.5u Golden Knights to win series (-175)
2u Oilers to win series (-130)
2u Avalanche to win series (-148)
Futures
1u Boston Bruins – Stanley Cup Champions (+1000)
1.5u Boston Bruins – Stanley Cup Champions (+1100)
2u Vegas Golden Knights – Stanley Cup Champions (+1200)
1.5u Carolina Hurricanes – Stanley Cup Champions (+1300)
1u New York Rangers – Stanley Cup Champions (+1300)
1u New Jersey Devils – Stanley Cup Champions (+1600)
.5u Minnesota Wild – Stanley Cup Champions (+2000)
1u Minnesota Wild – Western Conference Champions (+800)
2u Edmonton Oilers – Stanley Cup Champions (+800)
Record: 760-595-31 (-27.22 units)
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