After a week off for me with the stupid team event, the PGA Tour is back this week at Vidanta Vallarta in Puerto Vallarta for the Mexico Open with by far the worst field of the year.

No video this week. Fuck it.

Course Breakdown

Par 71 (normally plays as a Par 73), 7456 yards, Greg Norman design, 3 Par 5s, 5 Par 3s and a drivable Par 4, resort course so it plays easily, large and wide open fairways without much trouble surrounding them which could give bombers an advantage, slow and above average sized paspalum greens (which is on most Caribbean resort courses) with water and sand surrounding the greens, near water so it could be effected by the wind but even with heavy winds last year this was a birdiefest

Tournament Notes

• Last season this was a new event on the PGA Tour schedule on a new course

Key Stats

Approach, Driving Distance, Opportunities Gained

Main proximity distance range on approach: 42.3% (only one year of data)

Corollary Courses

• Coco Beach Country Club (Puerto Rico Open)
• Corales Golf Club (Corales Puntacana Championship)

Field

138 golfers – other than Rahm and Finau, this is a horrendous field with only three of the top 50 (Noren is ranked 49th) on the PGA and nine of the top 100 in the field

Defending Champion: Jon Rahm (-17)

Runner Up Last Year: Kurt Kitayama, Brandon Wu, Tony Finau (-16)

One and Done: Gary Woodland

One and Done Considerations: Rahm, Finau, Clark, Woodland

Players

Wyndham Clark: 9700: +2000 – Hasn’t missed a cut since the Shriners in October, T67 finish here last year, 29,6,5,27,34,33,19,37,50,10,16,29,16 finishes since then, 2nd in Approach, 28th in SG: OTT, 8th in Driving Distance, 31st in Proximity 200+ yards, 19th in SG: ARG, 41st in Putting, 5th in Opportunities Gained, 3rd in Birdie+ Gained

Gary Woodland: 9600: +2500 – 31,14,45,54,MC,9,42,62,MC,9 finishes in his last ten events, T24 finish here last year where he was T5 in SG: T2G, gained 4 strokes putting at his last start at Heritage which was his best since 2020 Workday, 2nd in ballstriking, 9th in Approach, 1st in SG: OTT, 4th in Driving Distance, 1st in Proximity 200+ yards, 136th in SG: ARG, 122nd in Putting, 13th in Opportunities Gained, 20th in Birdie+ Gained

Byeong Hun An: 9100: +4000 – Didn’t play here last year, has played well at Greg Norman designed tracks, 6,45,35,21,37,62,41,12 finishes in his last eight events, 31st in Approach, 65th in SG: OTT, 11th in Driving Distance, 89th in Proximity 200+ yards, 2nd in SG: ARG, 66th in Putting, 28th in Opportunities Gained, 7th in Birdie+ Gained

Will Gordon: 7900: +6600 – MC,36,54,70,42,MC,MC,28,15,43,3 in his last eleven events, didn’t play here last year, 22nd in Approach, 14th in SG: OTT, 9th in Driving Distance, 16th in Proximity 200+ yards, 95th in SG: ARG, 84th in Putting, 45th in Opportunities Gained, 45th in Birdie+ Gained

Joseph Bramlett: 7800: +7000 – MC,36,MC,MC,55,7,13,54,54,64,9 finishes in his last eleven events, didn’t play here last year, 12th in Approach, 41st in SG: OTT, 20th in Driving Distance, 28th in Proximity 200+ yards, 18th in SG: ARG, 118th in Putting, 31st in Opportunities Gained, 48th in Birdie+ Gained

Luke List: 7800: +6500 – Missed cut here last year, has played awful recently with seven missed cuts in his last eleven events, 37th in Approach, 2nd in SG: OTT, 6th in Driving Distance, 5th in Proximity 200+ yards, 91st in SG: ARG, 135th in Putting, 9th in Opportunities Gained, 53rd in Birdie+ Gained

Model

Approach (30%)

SG: OTT (15%)

Driving Distance (10%)

Proximity 200+ yards (10%)

SG: ARG (10%)

Putting (5%)

Opportunities Gained (10%)

Birdie+ Gained (10%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

DraftKings/Betting Notes

• I went with a very straight forward model this week, nothing fancy
• Rahm could definitely win again, but you just can’t bet him at +225 to win a golf tournament, I could also see Finau winning pretty easily, but again, not taking him at +700
• Some books are offering markets without Rahm, not a bad idea to bet those…but if you’re going to…why not just take Rahm rather than having a full card, since you’re essentially saying he’s going to win
• Money’s in the crumbs…this field blows

Bets

Outrights

.5u Wyndham Clark (+2000)

.4u Gary Woodland (+2500)

.26u Byeong Hun An (+4000)

.16u Luke List (+6500)

.16u Joseph Bramlett (+6600)

.16u Will Gordon (+7000)

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