Brutal night yesterday on the NHL with the over not hitting in the Leafs/Bolts game, as I went 2-5 to lose 5.5 units, but at least won back 2.5 units cashing my series bets on the Leafs/Bolts over 5.5 games and for Vegas to win their series. Four games tonight, all elimination games and we have to crush it.
Game 6: Islanders vs. Hurricanes (7:00)
The Islanders held off elimination on Friday night with a 3-2 win on the road in Carolina in Game 5 on Tuesday night. The Canes outshot the Isles 36-22 and outplayed them by an expected goal rate of 3.95-2, but couldn’t tie up the game with another great performance in goal from Ilya Sorokin. I’d slightly lean the Islanders win this game tonight to extend this series to seven games but think the Canes win the series. I’ll stay off the side in this game, but I’ll jump right back on the alternate over 5 here for a unit.
Game 6: Panthers vs. Bruins (7:30)
I didn’t expect this to be a great series but we’re already at Game 6 between the Bruins and Panthers, making this a fun series. After splitting their first two games in Boston to open the series where the Bruins played pretty lousy hockey at home, they won the next two games in Florida pretty easily to put the Panthers on the brink of elimination. In Game 5 at home in Boston, the Bruins were by far the dominant team, outshooting Florida 47-25 and outplaying them by an expected goal rate of 4.52-3.86, but the Panthers still got extended the series with a fantastic performance in goal from Sergei Bobrovsky in a 4-3 overtime win for the Panthers on Matthew Tkachuk’s game-winner. After the first two games of this series, the Bruins have been by far the better team in this series, dominating the last three games, despite losing Game 5 which they likely should have finished this series in as they put 47 shots on the Panthers. They have an advantage on both ends of the ice, especially defensively. They’ve had the second-best offense in the NHL while the Panthers have scored the sixth-most goals in the league. The Bruins are the best defensive team in the NHL by a significant margin, having allowed the fewest goals in the NHL. They’ve given up the seventh-fewest expected goals and the eleventh-fewest high-danger shots. Meanwhile, the Panthers have struggled on the back end, allowing the twelfth-most goals in the NHL. They’ve given up the eighth-most expected goals and the third-most high-danger shots. I expect the Bruins to finish this series on the road tonight. Not only do I think they’re up by a decent margin in the third period, with the being an elimination game for Florida, I expect to see an empty net early on the Panthers end of the ice which should lead to a free goal or two for the B’s to hit the puck line and win by multiple goals. Boston’s ending this series tonight. Along with letting my prop on them to win it in six games, I’m tripling down and I’ll take them in regulation for 3 units and on the puck line for half a unit. I’m going right back to my laddered up overs that I had on this series on Wednesday night, with 2 units on the over 6, 1.5 units on the alternate over 7, a unit on the alternate over 7.5 and half a unit on the alternate over 8.
Game 6: Wild vs. Stars (9:30)
This series has been incredible, and the Wild can make it go to seven games with a win at home tonight to bounce back from Dallas winning in a 4-0 shutout at home on Tuesday night, a great shutout for Jake Oettinger. He made 27 saves as the Stars were outshot 27-25 but they outplayed the Wild by an expected goal rate of 3.02-1.69. I have two series bets here after I already cashed my over 5.5 games prop, with the series to go seven games pending as well as my Stars to win the series prop which is a hedge for my Wild futures. Even with one of their best players in Mats Zuccarello likely out of the lineup tonight, I still like Minnesota to win and extend it to seven games. I’ll stay off this one entirely. I’d slightly lean the under, but not enough to bet it.
Game 6: Kraken vs. Avalanche (10:00)
The Kraken, with a huge 3-2 win in Colorado in Game 5 on Wednesday night, have put the defending Stanley Cup Champions a game away from elimination as the series shifts back to Seattle for Game 6 tonight. In that game, Seattle outshot the Avs 29-28 but were just slightly outplayed by an expected goal rate of 2.62-2.47. Like I said going into this series, I expected Seattle to keep it close and match up really well with the Avs, but the experience of Colorado would lead to them winning the series. I still like the Avalanche to win this series, and expect them to bounce back with a win on the road to take it back to Denver for Game 7. I’ll just let my series bet from after Game 1 on them ride tonight and along with that, I’ll take the under for a unit.
Game Bets
1u Islanders/Hurricanes over 5 (-150)
3u Bruins in regulation (-104)
.5u Bruins -1.5 (+148)
2u Bruins/Panthers over 6 (-129)
1.5u Bruins/Panthers over 7 (+170)
1u Bruins/Panthers over 7.5 (+230)
.5u Bruins/Panthers over 8 (+285)
1u Avalanche/Kraken under 6 (-120)
Series Bets
1u Bruins to win series in six games or less (-177)
1.5u Stars to win series (-150)
.5u Stars/Wild over 6.5 games (+220)
1.5u Oilers to win series in six games or less (-112)
1u Devils to win series (-125)
2u Maple Leafs to win series (-177)
2u Oilers to win series (-130)
2u Avalanche to win series (-148)
Futures
1u Boston Bruins – Stanley Cup Champions (+1000)
1.5u Boston Bruins – Stanley Cup Champions (+1100)
2u Vegas Golden Knights – Stanley Cup Champions (+1200)
1.5u Carolina Hurricanes – Stanley Cup Champions (+1300)
1u New York Rangers – Stanley Cup Champions (+1300)
1u New Jersey Devils – Stanley Cup Champions (+1600)
.5u Minnesota Wild – Stanley Cup Champions (+2000)
1u Minnesota Wild – Western Conference Champions (+800)
2u Edmonton Oilers – Stanley Cup Champions (+800)
Record: 770-609-34 (-34.9 units)
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