My regular NHL plays were lousy yesterday not hitting the over on the Leafs game to go 1-5 on those, but ended the night profitable going 3-0 on series bets cashing in on Toronto and the Oilers, winning 0.48 units on the day. Tonight, Game 7. The two greatest words in sports, and tonight we have two of ‘em. Let’s win!!
Game 7: Bruins vs. Panthers (6:30)
I am completely shocked that this series has gone to seven games. I didn’t expect this to be a great series, having expected the B’s to get it done in five games but it has been a lot of fun, as we head into Game 7 between the Boston Bruins and Florida Panthers, which no one saw coming. After splitting their first two games in Boston to open the series where the Bruins played pretty lousy hockey at home, they won the next two games in Florida pretty easily to put the Panthers on the brink of elimination. In Game 5 at home in Boston, the Bruins were by far the dominant team, outshooting Florida 47-25 and outplaying them by an expected goal rate of 4.52-3.86, but the Panthers still got extended the series with a fantastic performance in goal from Sergei Bobrovsky in a 4-3 overtime win for the Panthers on Matthew Tkachuk’s game-winner. Game 6 in Florida was highly entertaining, with the Panthers winning 7-5 at home in a game that saw seven third period goals. Boston outshot the Panthers 34-33 and led twice in the third period, but couldn’t get it done and Florida outplayed the Bruins by an expected goal rate of 4.85-4.02. Anything can happen in Game 7 and I wouldn’t particularly be shocked by a Panthers win on the road to pull off the biggest upset of the year, and eliminate the greatest regular season team in NHL history, as Boston hasn’t really impressed me this series, but I expect the Bruins to finish this series off with a win on home ice. I’m letting my two futures which still have such fantastic odd on them ride for the Bruins, but I’m not going to double down on it, especially not with the price on them at -235. I’ve loved the overs in this series though and I’ll jump right back on it tonight. Five of the six games in this series have hit the over and especially with elimination in play tonight for both teams, I love the over tonight. We should see an empty net in the third period which should get us more scoring opportunities late, but likely won’t even have to rely on it. Along with that, all four regular season games between these teams hit the over with two top-tier offenses facing off. The Bruins have scored the second-most goals in the NHL, having generated the ninth-most expected goals and the 14th-most high-danger shots in the league. The Panthers have scored the sixth-most goals in the NHL, having generated the most expected goals and the most high-danger shots in the league. I’ll ladder it up with 2 units on the over 6, a unit on the over 7, and half a unit on the over 7.5.
Game 7: Avalanche vs. Kraken (9:30)
This has been such a great series, that a lot of people didn’t see coming. I said going into this series that I actually expected Seattle to keep it close and match up really well with the Avs and that the price on the series at -315 was insanely overpriced. I did think Colorado would win it though with the experience of the Cup champs and the depth of their team with the edge of their superstars in MacKinnon and Makar to lead them to win the series. After the Game 1 loss I jumped on Colorado to win the series at a much more reasonable -148 price. We’ve reached Game 7 now, and even in the losses, the Avalanche have been just slightly the better team in most of the games in it. Coming off their big 4-1 win to extend the series in Game 6 in Seattle, I expect the Avs to get it done and advance tonight. I already have the Avs to win the series prop at a pretty good price at -148, a lot cheaper than the -215 moneyline. I’ll let that ride tonight in Denver. I’d slightly lean the under but with the insanity that happens in elimination games, I’ll stay off the total tonight.
2u Bruins/Panthers over 6 (-122)
1u Bruins/Panthers over 7 (+175)
.5u Bruins/Panthers over 7.5 (+230)
1u Devils to win series (-125)
2u Avalanche to win series (-148)
1u Boston Bruins – Stanley Cup Champions (+1000)
1.5u Boston Bruins – Stanley Cup Champions (+1100)
2u Vegas Golden Knights – Stanley Cup Champions (+1200)
1.5u Carolina Hurricanes – Stanley Cup Champions (+1300)
1u New York Rangers – Stanley Cup Champions (+1300)
1u New Jersey Devils – Stanley Cup Champions (+1600)
2u Edmonton Oilers – Stanley Cup Champions (+800)
Record: 780-621-34 (-32.54 units)
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